NATIONAL: Independents are the ticket

One Last Thing Polls, for now, give Democrats big edge. But many numbers are self-contradictory. And the polls won't open for 184 days.

By Jonathan Last Philadelphia Enquirer May 7, 2006 -- In September of 1984, an ABC/Washington Post poll asked registered voters whether they preferred a Democrat or a Republican to represent their congressional districts. By a 15-point margin, respondents favored Democrats. On Election Day 1984, Democrats lost 14 seats in the House. In 1996, a similar question produced a 14-point edge for Democrats; in that election they gained 9 House seats. The lesson is that polls are important tools for understanding politics. Except when they're not. ...If the election were held today, Democrats would have a good chance to realign the House of Representatives for a decade. The only problem is that the polls won't open for another 184 days. And Democrats have shown time and again that they can blow a lead like nobody's business.... more

Pollster Suggests Bush Moves Might Be Too Little, Too Late

By Eric Pianin and Chris Cillizza Sunday, May 7, 2006 Washington Post -- The recent White House shake-up was an attempt to jump-start the administration and boost President Bush's rock-bottom approval ratings, but have those efforts come too late to salvage the presidency? A prominent GOP pollster thinks that may be the case.
"This administration may be over," Lance Tarrance, a chief architect of the Republicans' 1960s and '70s Southern strategy, told a gathering of journalists and political wonks last week. "By and large, if you want to be tough about it, the relevancy of this administration on policy may be over." A new poll by RT Strategies, the firm headed by Tarrance and Democratic pollster Thomas Riehle [shows]... ....Tarrance said it would be extremely difficult for any president to bounce back this late in his administration and reassert influence on Capitol Hill when his approval rating barely exceeds his party's base support and half of all adults surveyed said they "strongly disapprove" of his performance. An overwhelming 73 percent of independents disapprove of Bush's performance, and two-thirds of those "strongly disapprove.".... more

Voters Reject Guest-Worker Plan

USA Matthew A. Roberts New Media Journal May 6, 2006 -- A new Zogby poll of likely voters finds that Americans prefer, by two to one, the House of Representatives’ enforcement-only bill to the Senate’s plan to grant guest-worker status. Sixty-four percent of Americans support the House bill, with only 30 percent supporting the Senate plan. Support for the enforcement-only approach by itself also proves to be widespread, with 81 percent of Republicans, 72 percent of Independents, 57 percent of Democrats, and 53 percent of Hispanics supporting the enforcement-only House bill. .... more