Beyond Red vs. Blue: Americans Choose Independence

Beyond Red vs. Blue: The Political Typology
Pew Research
OVERVIEW

With the economy still struggling and the nation involved in multiple military operations overseas, the public’s political mood is fractious. In this environment, many political attitudes have become more doctrinaire at both ends of the ideological spectrum, a polarization that reflects the current atmosphere in Washington.

Yet at the same time, a growing number of Americans are choosing not to identify with either political party, and the center of the political spectrum is increasingly diverse. Rather than being moderate, many of these independents hold extremely strong ideological positions on issues such as the role of government, immigration, the environment and social issues. But they combine these views in ways that defy liberal or conservative orthodoxy....

2012
Obama Job Approval Rebounds Amid Voter Discontent on Economy (San Francisco Chronicle) There's a partisan divide on the debt ceiling, with 64 percent of Democrats and 52 percent of independent voters saying that failing to raise it would have "disastrous" consequences, while 49 percent of Republicans said so. Yet substantial minorities believe it wouldn't have a serious impact, including 27 percent of Democrats, 34 percent of independent voters and 38 percent of Republicans. The number goes up to 44 percent among those who identify strongly with the Tea Party.

In a Two-Party Bicycle Race, Independents Are Key

INDEPENDENT VOTERS
Cartoons by ULIV founder Randy Miller "On a Bicycle Built for Two -- Parties" on The Hankster and Kevin Kreneck,Tribune Media Services, on Tim Rutten's "Snapshot of a split America" in LA Times

Tim Rutten: Snapshot of a split America (By Tim Rutten, LA Times)  A Pew survey shows that the most politically engaged Americans are now fundamentally opposed to compromise and split on virtually every issue. It's a landscape California has traversed for years.

More Massachusetts voters enroll as Independent (By David Riley, Patriot Ledger) Party leaders note that it’s easy for voters to stay unaligned in this state, which still allows them to vote in primary elections. But they acknowledge some voters today also seem to feel less bound by party loyalty. There’s disenfranchisement with the entire system, and political parties represent that system,” said Tim Buckley, communications manager for the Massachusetts Republican Party.


IT BEARS REPEATING

• The misunderstood independent (By Aaron Blake and Chris Cillizza, Washington Post/The Fix) Just six years ago, only 30 percent of Americans identified as independents. Today, that number is 37 percent. And while growing so fast (and 7 percent in six years is fast), they are also diversifying very quickly.
• Beyond Red vs. Blue: The Political Typology (Pew Research Center) Yet at the same time, a growing number of Americans are choosing not to identify with either political party, and the center of the political spectrum is increasingly diverse. Rather than being moderate, many of these independents hold extremely strong ideological positions on issues such as the role of government, immigration, the environment and social issues. But they combine these views in ways that defy liberal or conservative orthodoxy.
•  FOR DETAILS OF THE SURVEY AND HISTORICAL VIEW, SEE ONLINE (This is a 13 page report) OR PDF VERSION
• Why the tea party won’t determine the 2012 GOP nominee (By Aaron Blake, Washington Post/The Fix) Particularly in states like New Hampshire and South Carolina – which have primaries that are open to independents and, in South Carolina’s case, all voters – there should be plenty of independents and even Democrats casting ballots in the GOP contest. Even in Iowa, voters can change their party registration on caucus day. Remember Operation Chaos? The Associated Press noted in a story this weekend that 42 percent of voters in New Hampshire are independents. In 2008, they voted much more in the Democratic presidential primary than the Republican one; this year, that is likely to change significantly, shifting the entire electorate in the GOP primary to the left significantly.

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS 7/19/10

INDEPENDENT VOTERS

• Voters Rate the Parties' Ideologies - Dems Viewed as Farther from Political Center than is GOP (Pew Research) Democratic and independent voters are more diverse ideologically: 42% of Democrats say they are liberal (including 10% very liberal), 32% are moderate and 24% are conservative. Among independents, 48% describe their views as moderate while 33% say they are conservative and 17% are liberal.

SPECIAL FROM POLITICO:

POWER AND THE PEOPLE

A POLITICO POLL, July 19, 2010

On July 9-14, Penn Schoen Berland surveyed 1,011 people in the U.S. with a representative

distribution of Americans and 227 Washington D.C. Elites. Margin of error is 3.1% and 6.53%

respectively.

Do you think the political system in Washington D.C. is broken? 

Yes: 

72% of general population

64% of Washington elites

69% general population independents

Click here for full poll results

• Poll: D.C. elites a world apart (By: Andy Barr, Politico)
• Reality gap: U.S. struggles, D.C. booms (By: Jim VandeHei and Zachary Abrahamson, Politico)
• Watch the Obama reelect numbers (By: Mark Penn, Politico)

OPEN PRIMARIES

• IL: Our Opinion: Lawmakers should OK open primary bill (THE STATE JOURNAL-REGISTER)
• Parties Battling Irrelevancy (by Reid Wilson, National Journal)

NORTH CAROLINA

• Hearing Set for North Carolina Ballot Access Case (Ballot Access News)

OREGON

• Oregon Voters Flock To Independent Party -- Whether They Mean To Or Not (Chris Lehman, OPB News)

NEW YORK

• Talk persists of Bloomberg presidential run (By Ros Krasny, Reuters) Unlike Perot, Bloomberg brings with him a track record of winning elections. A Quinnipiac University poll published June 30 showed him with a 57 percent to 33 percent approval rating as New York's mayor.
• NYC mayor in NH: I'm not running for President (By PAULA TRACY, New Hampshire Union Leader)
• Espada, Under Investigation, Faces a Well-Financed Opponent (By SAM DOLNICK, NY Times)
• WFP Endorses Rivera and Goes to War With Espada (Gotham Gazette/Wonkster) Letter to members from Dan Cantor: Working Families just endorsed a great progressive challenger to Espada, Gustavo Rivera. To get politicians like Espada out and real leaders like Rivera in, we’re planning to “knock on thousands of doors and recruit leaders of religious, tenants’ and civic groups,” as the Times reports in today’s story.
• 2010 LOCAL PRIMARIES - FIRST REPORT (posted by Jerry Skurnik, Room Eight)

Conversations on Polls and Independent Voters

There a lot of talk in the media about independent voters going for McCain and/or Obama but I notice that the statements have become very generalized. From my perspective there are real independent voters out here who have real attitudes towards all the candidates AND who are also anti-party. I think some of the analysis misses this element, namely, that independents are making decisions about who they might support based on how independent of either party or the collective partisan system they think the candidate might be.

But on the other hand, be afraid if they get more specific: Today Pew Research released a poll that had asked pollees "If Obama is the Nominee, Will the Fact that He is African American: 1) Help him, 2) Hurt him, 3) no effect." The poll shows some detail in terms of partisan, race and gender breakdown.

Under the heading "Obama Viewed More Positively Among Democratic Voters" Pew says: "Fully 82% of black Democratic and Democratic-leaning independent voters say Obama has made them feel proud, but just over half of white Democrats (53%) express this view."

Huh? Is this apples and oranges, or is it butter?

Here's a list of the terms the pollee is asked to respond to, presumably the pollee is being asked how they respond to the candidate. Are they:

Down-to-earth
Inspiring
Honest
Patriotic
Phony
Hard-to-like
Hopeful
Proud
Uneasy

Could we add the word "Independent" to that list?

Or, better yet, ask the pollee "How independent do you feel the candidate is? 1) Will do whatever the Party says to do, 2) Will try to do what the American people want to do, 3) No clue
-NH

Repub/Dem gap: the defection of independent voters

The gap between Republican and Democratic identification, which Pew measured by counting people who are leaning toward one party or the other as well as those with a firm allegiances, is the widest spread between the parties since Pew began the studies. Although the gap speaks to the GOP's current troubles, Kohut said the shift mostly reflects the defection of independents from the party rather than a more favorable overall assessment of the Democratic Party. (from LA Times reprinted in Seattle Times)

Independents favor troop withdrawal

Shift among independent voters swings American public opinion in favor of pulling troops out of Iraq
Poll finds 53 percent believe washington should leave as soon as possible
EXPERT BRIEFING by Pew Research Center ...In recent surveys, independents had been fairly evenly split over whether to bring the troops home. In January, 47 percent favored a troop withdrawal while 49 percent said the troops should remain in Iraq until the situation there is stabilized. But in the current survey, 55 percent of independents say they favor bringing the troops home as soon as possible, compared with 40 percent who believe the troops should remain.... (Daily Star - LEBANON)

Pew Research poll shows independents swinging out of Iraq

..Independent Swing
In recent Pew surveys on this topic, voters who identified themselves as independent split evenly over whether to bring the troops home. In January, 47 percent of independents favored a troop withdrawal, while 49 percent said the troops should remain in Iraq until the situation there stabilized.
In the current survey, 55 percent of independents said they favored bringing the troops home as soon as possible, compared with 40 percent who said the troops should remain. ... (Dallas Morning News)