Debt Deal Tests Increasingly Independent Electorate

DEBT CEILING DEAL

• Obama’s Unhealthy Obsession With Independents (Ruy Teixeira, The New Republic) To understand how very unlikely it is that Obama’s long sought-after deal is going to magically turn around his numbers, we must visit one of the most robust but amazingly underappreciated findings in American political science: independents are not independent. That is, the overwhelming majority of Americans who say there are “independent” lean toward one party or the other. Call them IINOs (Independents In Name Only). IINOs who say they lean toward the Republicans think and vote just like regular Republicans. IINOs who say they lean toward the Democrats think and vote just like regular Democrats.
• Will Debt Dance Be a Disaster for Incumbents? (By Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call) While the public has displayed a general frustration with Congress, it’s probably a mistake to assume its feelings will be “anti-incumbent” next November. Instead, it is much easier to imagine Democratic voters blaming Republicans and Republican voters blaming Democrats, with independents much more conflicted than they have been during the past three elections.
• Pelosi's Gutsy Stand (By Eleanor Clift, The Daily Beast) The sidelined ex-speaker is as disgusted as fellow liberals by what they see as an Obama sellout—but dutifully voted for the debt deal for the good of the country.
• America's big shift right (By Liz Marlantes, MinnPost.com) Yet it isn't just Republicans who are becoming more conservative about Washington's role. In its most recent biannual survey of political values and core attitudes, the Pew Research Center found that the most notable shift of late is that independent voters have taken "a turn to the right" on broader economic issues, including views of the social safety net and the government's effectiveness and scope. Pew found that the number of people who believe the government "should help more needy people even if it means going deeper into debt" has fallen to 48 percent overall, while among independents, it's down to 43 percent – a drop of 14 points since 2007.

DEBT CRISIS

• They've Lost That Lovin' Feeling - Obama still has supporters, but theirs is a grim support. (By PEGGY NOONAN, Wall Street Journal) The fact is, he's good at dismantling. He's good at critiquing. He's good at not being the last guy, the one you didn't like. But he's not good at building, creating, calling into being. He was good at summoning hope, but he's not good at directing it and turning it into something concrete that answers a broad public desire.
• Analysis: Debt mess shows Washington's awful side (By BEN FELLER, AP White House Correspondent, Associated Press) Polls show people's trust in government is at one of its worst levels in decades. An ABC/Washington Post survey this month found that a whopping 80 percent of people were angry or dissatisfied with the federal government. About a decade ago, it wasn't half that high. Pleading for the parties to work together for the American people, Obama said, "That's the least that they should expect of us, not the most that they should expect of us." Achieving the least is proving nearly impossible.
• Obama’s Crucible Moment at Intersection of Politics and the Economy (By JOHN HARWOOD, NY Times) Mr. Obama was hardly alone in facing potential political peril. Speaker John A. Boehner scrambled through the day to quell a Tea Party rebellion that called into question Republican priorities and the party’s ability to govern.  Polls have shown independent voters siding with Mr. Obama’s approach to deficit reduction and crediting his party with greater willingness to compromise.

Pew Research: Obama Losing Among Independents

2012
Obama Loses Ground in 2012 Reelection Bid - In GOP, Romney Leads, Attentive Like Perry, Bachmann Most Visible (Pew Research Center) This is consistent with a drop in Obama’s approval among all independents. Currently, a majority (54%) disapprove of Obama’s performance for the first time in his presidency. His approval among independents has slipped to 36% from 42% last month and 49% in late May. (See “Public Wants a Debt Ceiling Compromise, Expects a Deal Before Deadline.”)

Jackie Salit, President of independentvoting.org, says 'I'm a member of the Anti-Party' -- most Americans don't like parties, partisanship, and Americans will come together around structural political reform. There is no center -- O needs to come out strongly in support of political reform and indies will support him.

Salit: No Middle Ground, I'm a Member of the Anti-Party

Debt distress, partisan pollution... 'There is no middle ground, but there is way to bring Americans together. President Obama is trying to play to the center when there is no center...' -Jacqueline Salit on Fox & Friends

Liberal Discontent with Debt Ceiling Wars

DEBT CEILING
The summer of liberal discontent (By: Glenn Thrush, Politico) “Every policy outcome for liberals is a loss at this point,” said a senior party operative, reflecting the prevailing view among progressives that the alternatives mulled by Obama in the debt talks range from the awful to the unthinkable. “We may win on the politics,” the operative said, “but the policy battle is lost. It’s just depressing.”

Congress Cares More About Placing Blame Than Resolving the Debt Ceiling Issue

As Hankster readers might know, I sometimes cross-post at The Moderate Voice, whose founder and Editor-in-Chief Joe Gandelman attended the February 2011 national conference of independents in New York City. My post yesterday elicited 3 great comments which I want to share with yo. Thanks to all!!!

From davidpsummers: One symptom is that the politicians are clearly putting as much effort into who might get the blame for the crisis as to the actual crisis. In fact, most of the partisan pundits find who will get the blame, and spin on that topic, as important as anything. In the end, all either side really cares about is partisan advantage.
    I have not doubt that either side would be willing to let the crisis happen if they thought the other side would get the blame. Or, in fact, even just get “more” blame, since they know the two party system doesn’t give voters any alternative to the two parties. That is why we need structural reform.
    I think it is time to mention instant-runoff voting again…

From Allen: Congress is to blame for all of it because Congress has the purse strings. No budget bill has been passed in Congress as yet.
    The Republican party has a minority stake in our government and they are trying to control the majority by holding the financial security of the United States, even the world, as ransom.
    Republicans will no doubt get the blame, domestically, and, internationally.

From ph447sf: This Aug. 2, debt ceiling thing isn’t a crisis. So many times the debt ceiling just gets raised; raise it. Our oversized debt is a problem, but the two shouldn’t be lumped.
    The debt problem can be solved:
    -Roll back the Bush tax cuts.
    -Cut military spending
    -Big Pharma needs to give the USA the prices it gives Canada
    -Change our trade policies
    -Stop giving Corporate Welfare
    -Get out of these crazy wars
    There you go, debt problem solved! I could go on, but that alone would probably do it.


DEBT CEILING
The Debt Crisis: Systemic and Uncontrolled Disease of Partisanship (Posted by Nancy Hanks, The Moderate Voice) Dr. Jessie Fields (she asks the last question) tells us ‘I’m not an expert on the economy, I’m a 25 year physician and I recognize disease when it’s systemic and uncontrolled, and the two parties are strangling our democracy. We as a nation need to turn our attention to reforming the political process. As independents we support comprehensive nonpartisan restructuring of the political process; we think that’s at the heart of this crisis. What are your thoughts, ideas, about solutions?’
The Debt Ceiling Debacle (Robert L. Borosage, President, Institute for America's Future, Huffington Post) Progressives need to learn not so much from the Tea Party as from their own history and build an independent movement to stand with working Americans... The American Dream Movement, championed by Van Jones, Moveon.org, the Center for Community Change, the Campaign for America's Future that I help direct and others, is beginning to build that uprising.

The Debt Crisis: 'Spirit of Party' Gone Mad

Lot's of blame, no room for new ideas. Why? The spirit of party gone mad.  Solution? Structural political reform. See video below of CBS New York Q&A on the debt crisis with independents. Dr. Jessie Fields (last question) tells us 'I'm not an expert on the economy, I'm a 25 year physician and I recognize disease when it's systemic and uncontrolled, and the two parties are strangling our democracy. We as a nation need to turn our attention to reforming the political process. As independents we support comprehensive nonpartisan restructuring of the political process; we think that's at the heart of this crisis. What are your thoughts, ideas, about solutions?'

DEBT CRISIS

• Parties still divided on debt negotiations (Meet the Press, msbnbc) With no deal in sight and political gridlock inside the Beltway, our roundtable addressed this question: Is Washington broken?
• Michael Bloomberg warns of D.C.'s 'leadership deficit' - 'Our national leaders need to stop staring down the other side,' said Michael Bloomberg. (By REID J. EPSTEIN, Politico)
• Dreck ceiling: Bloomberg's centrist shtick is getting old, and dangerous (By Steve Kornacki, Capital New York) Never mind that this belief is utter nonsense, stemming from a fundamental misunderstanding of what the growing number of independent voters means. (Short version: Partisan behavior is actually on the rise, even if voters prefer to think of themselves as "independents.") A fair chunk of the pundit class is convinced it's true and has convinced itself that Bloomberg possesses the special formula that will break the D.C. logjam that both parties have contributed equally to. They never explain how he would do this, and neither does he.
• GOP Pollsters Say Obama Must Pull Voters Back from Brink of Anger - Conservative advocacy and polling group Resurgent Republic's Ed Gillespie, a former Republican National Committee Chairman, and Ed Goeas, a veteran GOP pollster, argue independents like President Obama but don't believe he's made the economy better. (By Dave Cook, Christian Science Monitor)
• Obama achieves new levels of political demagoguery (By Michael Hudome, The Daily Caller - founded by Tucker Carlson) From Obama’s perspective, the proverbial electoral elephant in the room isn’t any of the GOP candidates for president. It’s the specter of a primary from the left. Don’t think for one minute that isn’t on the minds of the president’s political brain trust. A president with his low approval numbers is ripe for the picking. Imagine the message Independent voters in New Hampshire could send to the president and America by voting for a viable alternative.
• Our stupid self-inflicted debt crisis (By John Avlon, CNN) But the blame for this stage of failure lies squarely on the party that unilaterally withdrew from the talks -- and that's the Republicans… Independents voted for Republicans in the 2010 midterm elections because they wanted checks and balances; they wanted to reduce deficit and debt spending. But they did not vote for dysfunctional government, and they certainly did not vote for default. The polls showing that independent voters say they will blame Republicans more than Democrats for a U.S. default reflects this disconnect.
• Poll: US voters blame Republicans, Obama on jobs (Reuters) Obama receives higher marks from independent voters than Republicans when it comes to jobs, but appeasing supporters in his own party could be a bigger challenge.
• Obama, Boehner: Speechs without solutions (By Lynn Sweet, Chicago Sun Times) Obama zoned in on the Tea Party freshmen in Congress, though not by name. "I realize that a lot of the new members of Congress and I don't see eye-to-eye on many issues. But we were each elected by some of the same Americans for some of the same reasons." Obama's message: The independent voters who sent Obama to the White House were also some of the people who voted for them. And they can be switch hitters again.
• Cool Obama meets hot Boehner in dueling debt ceiling speeches (By Chris Cillizza, Washington Post/The Fix) Obama was aiming at the political middle — unaffiliated and independent voters who are seen as the most critical voting bloc heading into 2012. Those voters prize compromise and bipartisanship above any single issue and Obama repeatedly drove that message home.
• A ‘Unique Opportunity’ on the Debt Ceiling, Lost (By JACKIE CALMES, NY Times) And while Mr. Obama also seeks to appeal to independent voters who make the difference in presidential elections, many Democrats complain he is too willing to compromise, potentially disillusioning their party’s voters and muddying the case against Republicans for proposing much deeper entitlement program cuts. Mr. Boehner’s problem is that some otherwise persuadable Republicans worry less about the general election than party primaries, and fear they could draw a conservative rival by supporting a deal with Mr. Obama.

So, who's to blame for the debt lid gridlock in Washington? "The Early Show on Saturday Morning" put together a panel of independent voters to address the question.

CBS Early Show: Independents Talk with John Avlon and Margaret Hoover About the Debt Debate

INDEPENDENT VOTERS
Independent voters pin blame in debt gridlock CBS News VIDEO (CBS News)
"The Early Show on Saturday Morning" put together a panel of independent voters to address the question. They were joined by two analysts of different political stripes who happen to be husband and wife: Margaret Hoover, who was an aide to President George W. Bush and is the author of "American Individualism: How a New Generation of Conservatives Can Save the Republican Party," and John Avlon, the senior political columnist for Newsweek and The Daily Beast.

Some of the independents were:
SUSAN SIMPFENDERFER, 48
JACK WYRICK, 28
MATT AMARAL, 23
JEFF STEVENS, 44
CANDICE HARRISON, 25
JESSIE FIELDS, 55
NICK JOHNSON, 62
SHANNA BROWN, 21
EILEEN KAUFMANN, 6

Deficit talks strain Obama's bipartisanship goals - He took office with a promise to overcome partisanship in the political process, but with debt negotiations apparently collapsing, the president's options are narrowing. (By Peter Nicholas, Washington Bureau, LA Times) But if no solution emerges in time to avoid a default, Obama may revert to a more partisan role rather than try to mediate between the parties.

Independent Voters, Congress, and the Debt Debate

INDEPENDENT VOTERS

• INDEPENDENT VOTERS BELIEVE CONGRESSIONAL REPUBLICANS ARE MORE PARTISAN THAN DEMOCRATS (by Christopher A. Guzman, CAIVN) 71% of these unaffiliated voters say congressional Republicans are now acting more like partisan Republicans. 65% think that congressional Democrats are governing like partisan Democrats. Inside-the-Beltway politics in the eyes of 72% of unaffiliated voters will likely become more partisan over the next year. 
• House passes GOP debt measure; Obama praises compromise plan (By Alan Silverleib and Tom Cohen, CNN) A CBS News poll released Monday indicates that two-thirds of Americans say any agreement should include spending reductions and tax hikes, with 28% saying a deal should only include spending cuts and 3% saying it should only include tax increases. According to the survey, there is little partisan divide on the question. More than seven out of 10 Democrats and more than two-thirds of independent voters support a balanced approach, as do 55% of Republicans and 53% of self-described tea party movement supporters.
• Commentary: Debt debate shows two-party system doesn't work (By Larry Mendte, Fox59 - Bloomington) I urge Independents to run for office and i urge independent voters to seek out and support those candidates. You want real change than change the system because it doesn’t work.
• Polls: Americans want compromise in debt ceiling standoff (By: CNN's Paul Steinhauser and Alan Silverleib)
• GOP’s Debt Kamikazes (John Avlon, The Daily Beast) The fact that defaulting on our debt would raise interest rates—deepening the fiscal hole we’re in by compounding the size of our deficit and debt overnight—is not addressed.  Instead we are greeted with nihilistic bubble talk...

Independent Voters and the Debt Debate

INDEPENDENT VOTERS AND THE DEBT

• How Obama Can Be a Non-Partisan President (Jacqueline Salit, Huffington Post) For many independents, it's not enough for Obama to simply criticize Congressional leaders for their partisan intransigence. He has to show that he's willing to back certain structural changes in the political process that make such intransigence more difficult. This means taking a stand in support of open primaries where independents can vote, which are currently under fire from right wing Republicans. And, imagine the shock waves that would follow an Obama appointment (in consultation with leaders of the independent movement) of two independents to vacant seats on the Federal Election Commission.
• The Real Debt Deal (Dylan Ratigan, Huffington Post) We need a new global restructuring of our obligations, a new Bretton Woods or Brady Bonds solution. Greece should not be descending into poverty, it has an educated workforce and wonderful traditions. American homeowners shouldn't be under siege by creditor predator banks, and millions of us shouldn't be unemployed as debt-holders forced into a Survivor-like fight with each other over scraps. We cannot allow giant creditors to turn fights over debt into currency wars, and then into real wars.
• Voters dis dysfunction: Hear that D.C. debt ceiling players? (Posted by Joni Balter, Seattle Times/Ed cetera) And mostly, I have been thinking about independent voters in particular who, as a group, expect flexible, creative ideas for problem-solving, and, holy cow, that means both sides have to give a little to help the country. 
• Partisan Myopia Can Be Deadly - Republicans are fixated on the conservative base, but independent voters could make them pay for that in 2012. (Charlie Cook, National Journal/Off to the Races) Independent voters are overwhelmingly nonideological and don’t like Washington, politicians, or political parties. They hate the fighting and the sophomoric, partisan towel-snapping that is routine here. Independents are pragmatic. They just want the place to function.
• EDITORIAL: Debt crisis gamemanship (North County Times and The Californian opinion) As the past three presidents have shown, it is the center ---- the independent voters unaffiliated with a political party ---- that controls political power in this country. And the center is demanding that Congress raise the debt ceiling
• Hope Fades for Much Good to Come From Deficit Fight (By GERALD F. SEIB, Wall Street Journal/Capital Journal) Oddly, both the president and his Republican foes sensed that a big deficit-cutting deal was in Mr. Obama's interests, which, given the counter-intuitive way Washington works, probably made it harder to achieve.
• The real deal on the debt debate (By: Joe Scarborough, Politico) That’s a trifecta worth playing for a president who desperately seeks approval from the same independent voters who elected him in 2008 and abandoned him two years later. The White House sees its rivals destroying themselves, so should they interrupt all the fun with a deal that is actually good for America?… The center of Ronald Reagan’s party cannot hold because there is no center to a political organization whose most influential members of late have been Glenn Beck, Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann.
• CBS Poll: 71% Disapprove of Republican Handling of Debt Limit Crisis (POSTED BY JOE GANDELMAN, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, The Moderate Voice) A new CBS news poll has bad news for Republicans on the debt limit, politician-created crisis: Americans are unhappy with the political class’ performance on the issue but give Republicans ratings so low that they virtually spell out t-r-o-u-b-l-e with the independent voters the GOP will need to win in 2012.

Congress Serving Party, Not Country, in Debt Debate

DEBT DEBATE

Debt ceiling struggle exposing dysfunction in the U.S. political system (By John Farmer, The Star-Ledger) Once elected, too many members of Congress feel little or no obligation to serve independent interests — or even what they know is best for the country. They serve the perceived interests of their party’s base — its primary election voters.

Debt Debate: Independents Say Wealthy and Corporations Should Share Tax Load

DEBT DEBATE

• Polls: Should any debt ceiling agreement include tax increases? (By: CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser) As expected, there's a partisan divide on that question, with Democrats by an 87 to 7 percent margin and independents by at 66 to 26 percent margin saying that tax increases for the wealthy and corporations should be included. But by 48 to 43 percent plurality, Republicans disagree that taxes should be included.
• Debt talks yield little more than partisan positioning for 2012 (By Lesley Clark and David Lightman, Sac Bee) Polls show that independent voters are concerned about the country's mounting debt, and unlike Republican lawmakers, aren't opposed to taxing the wealthy or closing corporate tax loopholes to do something about it, Miringoff said. "The reason we're seeing a lot of President Obama, more than ever before, is he really has public opinion on his side," Miringoff said.
• Liberal group threatens to pull Obama support (AP) About a dozen people representing the Progressive Change Campaign Committee delivered what they said were 200,000 pledges from people who will refuse to donate or volunteer for Obama's re-election campaign if he cuts the entitlement programs. "It's not a question of who they're going to support for president, they're going to vote for Barack Obama. It's a question of where their time and money is going to go," spokesman T. Neil Sroka said.
• Why is Obama taking fire from left? (By CARL P. LEUBSDORF, The Dallas Morning News in Nashua Telegraph) And while his job approval has dropped 20 points from post-inaugural highs, that mostly occurred among Republicans and independents who didn’t vote for him. Still, friendly fire attacks persist, even though Obama is presiding over the most liberal administration since Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society in the 1960s.

Debt Limit Fight: Dangerous Partisan Blame Game

2012

• Why Obama Has Already Won the Debt-Limit Fight (Jonathan Alter, Bloomberg.com) If you went into the congressional kitchen to cook up the perfect Washington fudge, this is what you’d get. Instead of “doing something big” about the deficit, McConnell is proposing to do nothing -- then blame the other side. It’s a sign of how ungovernable the country has become that something resembling this scheme is now the most practical way forward.
• How it became Boehner's Dilemma - Making a deal on the US debt ceiling is easier said than done as both parties play a game of political one-upmanship (By LEON HADAR, WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT, The Business Times)
• July 14, 2011 - President Is Best Of The Worst On Economy, U.S. Voters Tell Quinnipiac University National Poll; Voters Blame Bush Over Obama 2-1 For Financial Mess (Quinnipiac) "The key voting bloc, independents, say 49 - 24 percent that Bush is more responsible for the economy than Obama." 
• Gallup Poll: ‘Generic Republican’ Leads Obama by 8  Points (By Katie Glueck, Wall Street Journal/Washington Wire)
• North Carolina going bad for Obama (Public Policy Polling, Tom Jensen) A sharp turn against him with independent voters is what's causing Obama problems in the state. Last month they narrowly gave him good marks by a 47/46 margin but now only 36% are happy with him while 62% disapprove. 

Debt Ceiling "Debate" - Independent Voters Are the Name of the Game

As the Hottest Show on Earth rages in the mainstream media, a very much less-than-sexy campaign is being waged for structural political reform from the grassroots. For example, Michael Lewis and William Bowe from Independent Kentucky (IK) met with Congressman John Yarmouth. IK has been leading a fight to open the primaries. Said Lewis "We highlighted how Kentucky and other states in this nation are keeping willing voters out of the process. We informed him we are going to bring him petitions and postcards from people in his district who support these issues." Rep. Yarmouth acknowledged that open primaries create a more representative government.

Independent Kentucky conducted an online monthly meeting last night which you can catch here in recorded form (go to approx 7 min. in to correct for tech issues). About IK: Independent Kentucky started three years ago (2008) while we were conducting political and economic research as independent voters in the Commonwealth of Kentucky. At the time, no outlets existed for independent-minded individuals who wanted to become active in state politics. We found a large number of independent voters but with no organization. The national independent movement (independentvoting.org and others) and some state independent movements were making ground, but none in or around the Commonwealth. Kentucky has a broad classification for us; we are the “other” voters. We seized the opportunity to build a base for the independent voters of the great Commonwealth of Kentucky. This is how Independent Kentucky became the growing organization it is today.

In the meantime, see below for the most (expensive) compelling political theater going!


DEBT CEILING DEBATE

• Obama is winning on debt debate, but there’s no room for moral victories (By Sam Youngman, The Hill) For Obama and his campaign, the name of the game is winning independent voters. Obama feels confident he is not going to get a challenge from his left, which allows him to offer concessions on Medicare and Social Security, including, according to Democrats familiar with the negotiations, an increase in the age to accept Medicare benefits in 2036.
• This Game of ‘Debt Chicken’ Is Getting Scary (By Morton M. Kondracke, Roll Call Executive Editor) You’d think, given the stakes, that each side might demonstrate statesmanship, bargaining hard but preparing to give for the sake of the country. That may be happening out of public view — one can only hope. In public, though, the sides are hardening. Obama is insisting on a $4 trillion “big deal.” He’s trying to look both leaderly and reasonable so that independent voters blame Republicans for a default disaster.
• Obama Owns the Debt-Ceiling Fiasco (By KARL ROVE, Wall Street Journal) The president's two most recent press conferences, in which he accused the GOP of foot-dragging, convinced Republicans that he was interested in scoring political points and attracting independents, not facilitating a deal. 
• Editorial: The Media Are In The Bag For Obama (Investors Business Daily) The debt talks handed President Obama a timely opportunity to position himself as a centrist for the 2012 elections and win back independents who've been abandoning him. Of course, the idea that Obama is a moderate is ludicrous to anyone who's even casually followed this presidency.
• Pessimism deepens as economic concerns rise: Reuters/Ipsos poll (By John Whitesides, Reuters) But voters do not appear to be holding President Barack Obama responsible for the problems so far. Obama's approval rating held relatively steady at 49 percent, down 1 percentage point from June. His approval rating among independents -- a group Obama needs to win re-election -- fell to 39 percent from 44 percent.
• Quinnipiac poll finds more voters would blame GOP on debt (By Alicia M. Cohn, The Hill/Blog Briefing Room) Twenty percent of Republicans would hold their party mainly responsible, and 49 percent of the Independent voters both parties are trying to attract would put more responsible on the GOP. Thirty-three percent of Independents would put more responsibility on the administration.

Debt Ceiling "Debate" Yet Another Example of Partisan Intransigence at Americans Expense

Dear President Obama,

It would be easier and quicker to support structural political reforms like open primaries that include all voters, nonpartisan independent redistricting, citizen initiative and referendum, etc. than to bring the parties together. Let's face it, they ARE together in their intransigence and their ignoring voters.

• Michael Bloomberg calls for debt deal (By JENNIFER EPSTEIN, Politico) Hoping to calm the partisan bickering, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg on Tuesday hit Democrats and Republicans alike for their inability to reach a deal to raise the debt ceiling.
• U.S. default would slam financial system: NYC mayor Bloomberg (Reuters) Bloomberg, mentioned among possible successors toTreasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, said the federal government must avoid damaging the nation's economy and its credibility around the world with a first-ever U.S. default.
• Obama on debt ceiling: Is he winning over Americans? (By Linda Feldmann, Christian Science Monitor) Among independent voters, the numbers are also encouraging for Mr. Obama’s position. In May, 34 percent were more concerned about default than about the potential consequences of raising the debt ceiling. In July, that number is up 11 points to 45 percent. Obama won a majority of independents in 2008, and he’s fighting to win them back in time for the 2012 election.
• Does The Deficit Impasse Look Insoluble? (NPR/All Things Considered ) SIEGEL: As you've said, President Obama has his eye on independent voters. Speaker Boehner has his eye on the conservative Republican base. Is it possible to tell who is actually winning politically so far in this? LIASSON: I think everybody is losing.
• Why Obama Wants a Big Deal (By GERALD F. SEIB, Wall Street Journal) But for a president eager to win back independent swing voters, deficit cutting is a net plus. It's worth noting that the biggest influences on the president as he navigates this issue are Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and White House political adviser David Plouffe, both of whom are convinced, for different reasons, of the virtues of deficit cutting.

Open Primary Not Good for Tea Party

OPEN PRIMARY

• Congressional special election in LA brings big spending (Chase Davis, California Watch) The race, California’s first under the open primary system approved by voters last fall, has been marked by all the controversy of a ballot box nail-biter, even though Hahn holds the edge on paper.
• GOP mulls primary options - State's tea partiers pushing caucus instead (BY KATHY BARKS HOFFMAN-ASSOCIATED PRESS, Detroit Free Press) Dennis Moore, director of the Willow Run Tea Party Caucus in Ypsilanti, said he thinks a party convention or caucus gives tea partiers their best chance. "No open primary, because that's a bad deal for us," Moore said Wednesday.

OBAMA
Obama Will Win Independent Vote in 2012 (Jeremy Los, policymic "Next Generation News and Politics) In the end, independent voters are more than likely going to turn out in favor of Obama because many Americans believe he will have made positive strides fixing the economy. Independents’ tendency to follow what transpires on hot button issues will likely swing their vote in Obama’s favor if he is able to make some headway on the country’s economic turmoil. With no legitimate candidate rising from the GOP, independent voters will have to make the choice to either vote for Obama or not vote at all.

BUDGET

• Harry Reid, Henry Clay (By Brent Budowsky, The Hill) The president has never come to grips with the contradiction of trying to be a part-partisan president facing a hyper-partisan GOP. One solution would be to name America’s leading political independent and post-partisan officeholder, the financially brilliant and vastly respected Michael Bloomberg, as Treasury secretary if Timothy Geithner chooses to leave.
• Even the right is pissed at Republicans (By DOUG THOMPSON, Capitol Hill Blue "Because Nobody's Life, Liberty or Property is Safe While Congress is in Session or the White House is Occupied") Polls by CNN/Opinion Research and ABC/Washington Post say Americans are fed up with both parties and the overall behavior of Congress. 
• Time to compromise on debt ceiling (David Brooks, The Detroit News) If the debt ceiling talks fail, independent voters will see that Democrats were willing to compromise, but Republicans were not. If responsible Republicans don't take control, independents will conclude that fanaticism caused this default.
• The Only Reform That Will Restrain Spending -- All 47 Senate Republicans now support changing the Constitution to balance the federal budget. (By OLYMPIA SNOWE And JIM DEMINT, Wall Street Journal) If Congress increases our national debt ceiling next month without permanent, structural budget reforms, we will signal to taxpayers and bond markets alike that Washington is still in denial. Whatever agreement is reached, everyone will know that future Congresses are not obligated to follow it. As a result, the only way to compel lawmakers to maintain their responsibility forever is a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution.

UTAH
New BYU poll suggests tea party influence on the decline (By Lisa Riley Roche, Deseret News) The drop in support among voters who call themselves independent, independent Republicans and not-so-strong Republicans comes as tea party are targeting some elected officials for their support of a controversial immigration law… "What gives the tea party so much of its strength is our caucus system is biased toward the very active and the ideologically committed," Patterson said.

THE MIDDLE
CENTRIST ALLIANCE STAKES OUT A PLACE BETWEEN THE PARTISAN EXTREMES (by Damon Eris, CAIVN) On the issues, the Centrist Alliance is currently maintaining a relatively open platform emphasizing a strong national defense, immigration reform, a sensible and pragmatic foreign policy, energy independence and electoral reforms that would encourage civic participation and provide an equal place at the table for alternative parties and Independent voters.