Did Polls Ignore Independents in CA 36?

UPDATE - Dem Hahn takes the California special election by 9 points...


CALIFORNIA

• INDEPENDENTS COULD BE THE DECIDING FACTOR IN TODAY'S CD-36 SPECIAL ELECTION (by Christopher A. Guzman, CAIVN) The Daily Kos, which initially commissioned the Public Policy Polling data, is banking on election day turnout to favor Hahn and propel her to victory. In its blog post citing poll data, however, the liberal blog seems to conveniently gloss over the fact that Independent voters favor Huey over Hahn by 50%-40%. Ten percent of Independents polled for today's race are still undecided. 
• Democrat takes early lead in Calif. US House race (By MICHAEL R. BLOOD, Forbes) Democrats hold a commanding 18-point registration edge in the district where Barack Obama notched a 31-point win in 2008, but the likelihood of a meager turnout, combined with widespread voter anxiety over the economy, could make for a tight finish.

Citizens Union John Avlon: Increased Interest in New York for Open Primary System

Citizens Union spokesperson and independent journalist now with CNN John Avlon testifies - via phone - before NYC Charter Revision Commission in favor of Top-Two open primary (nonpartisan election) for city elections. Citizens Union presented 50 recommendations to the commission that would encourage voter participation. Under the current primary system in NYC, 1.5 million voters are excluded from the decisive first round of voting.





"Yes, there is an uptake of independent voters in New York, but let's also discuss the election cycle. The "obvious reasons" for unions and other special interest groups to oppose this reform because their impact is greater in a closed partisan election. In addition to the dysfunction we have seen in Albany, the hyperpartisanship we see in Washington, there is increased interest in an open primary system."

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS 8/12/09

Independent Voters

• NOTE: Without much fanfare, the WaPo introduced a new blog just about around a year ago. Funny, this is the first mention of "independent voters"...in an article about Sarah Palin's "downright evil" comment about President Obama's healthcare plan. Sarah Palin Calls for...Restraint? (Stephen Stromberg, Washington Post/Post Partisan)
• IMHO Marc Ambinder is one of the more anti-independent pundits around. However, he does write about independents, even if his understanding of independent voters is based on partisan conservatism. How Conservatives Are Blowing Their Chance (The Atlantic/Politics, Marc Ambinder)
• Is corruption a problem? (By WALLY EDGE, NJ Politicker) More than nine out of then (93%) of New Jerseyans say government corruption is a "somewhat serious" or "very serious" problem and 65% of voters say the recent wave of corruption arrests embarrasses them as New Jersey residents.
• N.J. Voters Say Corruption Major Issue, Poll Finds (By Stacie Servetah, Bloomberg) Voters say 50 percent to 15 percent, with 34 percent undecided, that they associate Democrats more than Republicans with political corruption in New Jersey. Independent voters blame Democrats 56 percent to 9 percent, while 28 percent of Democrats blame their own party, the poll found.
• Poll finds Corzine closing on Christie in governor's race (New Jersey News Room) In the two-way face-off, Corzine leads 83-10 percent among Democratic likely voters, compared to 76-19 percent in July. Christie leads 89-7 percent among Republicans and 64-29 percent among independent voters, both unchanged.
• Garden State Gubernatorial: Three reasons that Republican Chris Christie can win in New Jersey. (By Jennifer Marsico, National Review Online)
• Playing It Safe (By Charlie Cook, National Journal via Government Executive) The public's go-slower attitude is coming through not just in surveys but also in focus groups, such as one that Democratic pollster Peter Hart conducted in Towson, Md., recently for the Annenberg Public Policy Center. Columnist Mark Shields, who watched that focus group of a dozen independent voters from behind the glass, notes, "Even those who are rooting for Obama think that he is moving too fast. They feel the nation needs a time-out. They urge him to slow down." Shields quoted one participant as saying, "I hope he has learned that everything does not work at the speed of light," and another as advising that the president "needs to develop a bit of patience."

BLOOMBERG 09

NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg, registered as unaffiliated, is running as an independent for a third term on the Independence Party line in November. PS -- Mike twittered today! http://twitter.com/mikebloomberg

• Indys Defend Bloomberg As One Of Their Own (NY Daily News/Daily Politics/Liz Benjami)
• Working The Jewish Vote For Bloomberg ‘09 - Mark Botnick: Mayor’s liaison grew up in political family. (by Adam Dickter, The Jewish Week) At 24, Mark Botnick is in charge of outreach to the Jewish community for Mike Bloomberg’s third mayoral campaign. The Yonkers native, an alumnus of Westchester Day School and Westchester Hebrew High School, worked on Bloomberg’s last campaign while still at Queens College and afterward went to work at the city’s Community Assistance Unit until this year. A Democrat, he lives on the Upper West Side.
• Special Election: NY Democrats Go With Rookie (By Emily Cadei, CQ Politics)

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

INDEPENDENT VOTERS

* Obama's team (LETTER from Cliff Hodge, Westlake Village, The Agoura Hills Acorn - CA) Frankly, I would like to see some ordinary folks involved as advisers to Obama.

  

OPEN PRIMARIES/POLITICAL REFORM

• * After Prop. 11, Gov ponders next move (By John Howard, Capitol Weekly) California has what is called a modified closed primary. In this system, the parties determine whether those registered as declined-to-state can vote in the party’s primary election. Generally, that means declined-to-state voters can cast ballots in most primaries except presidential and party leadership positions.
  
• * Calderon unveils his own 'open primary' plan (Sac Bee/Capitol Alert) Calderon's office said the assemblyman's legislation will be modeled after the Washington law.
  
• * Governor rejoices in redistrict measure's win (John Wildermuth, San Francisco Chronicle) When voters this summer saw partisan squabbling send the state's budget deliberations months over deadline before any agreement could be reached and Sacramento virtually paralyzed, they wanted changes, the governor said.
  
• * Tucson's election system is unfair, but Phoenix should back down (By Jim Sinex, ARIZONA DAILY STAR) "...Senator-elect Jonathan Paton from Legislative District 30 wants the state to force Tucson into a nonpartisan election system. This is another call for strong centralized control from Phoenix."
  
• * Governor Schwarzenegger Touts Redistricting Reform (Sacramento Scope/Imperial Valley News) Delivering on the Governor’s promise to take redistricting out of the hands of legislators, Proposition 11 creates an independent 14-person commission charged with drawing district boundaries for the Senate, Assembly and Board of Equalization. It will be comprised of five Democrats, five Republicans and four others that will all be selected through a nomination process overseen by the state auditor.
  
• * No Special Election For Obama's Seat (US News & World Report/Political Bulletin) Facing the potential prospect of a Republican winning President-elect Obama's Senate seat if a special election were held, media reports note that Illinois Democrats on Tuesday indicated they would not pursue that avenue to fill the vacancy.
  
• * Ipsos/McClatchy Poll: Illinois voters say Blagojevich must go (By Steven Thomma, McClatchy Newspapers) 44 percent said the state should have a special election
  

POLITISOPHICAL INVESTIGATIONS

• * The case of the vanishing GOP voter (By Eric Fehrnstrom, Boston Globe) The good news is that the worst for Republicans did not happen. There was no major political realignment. The most awful predictions of GOP losses in the Congress did not come to pass. A few states changed from red to blue, but only a few.
  
• * House GOP Faces A Long March, Not A Sprint - A 1994-Style Reversal Would Require An Enormous Shift In The Political Climate And Retooling Of The Republican Brand (National Journal, by Charlie Cook and David Wasserman)
  

Staten Island: Special election for Assembly seat

A special election on Staten Island has drawn some political "heavy hitters" -- Rev. Al Sharpton, State Sen. from Brooklyn Eric Adams and Dr. Lenora Fulani have come together to back Assembly candidate Kelvin Alexander... (Staten Island Advance)

Oregon: Serious grassroots-driven winning strategy

Strategy: Oregon special election is super important for Democrats, Independents and Republicans of conscience to coalesce early behind a great candidate and a serious grassroots-driven, winning strategy (Blueoregon blog)

This post raises 2 important issues: one, thinking out loud -- we should all do that! and two, mounting a unified early challenge -- we should do that too, but what happens if a great candidate isn't available? Keep organizing at the grassroots!