Thursday, February 23, 2012

2012: Polls Show Indies Boost Obama Lead in General Election; Americans Elect Still in Wings

  • Santorum Up 9 Points Among Republican Voters, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Obama Edges Santorum, But Romney Is Too Close To Call (Quinnipiac) Although this is Quinnipiac University's first national poll this year, all of the numerous surveys of key states this year, including Florida, Ohio and Virginia, show Romney doing better against Obama than Santorum. In this national poll, the president benefits from his 46 - 41 percent lead over Romney and 49 - 39 percent margin over Santorum among independent voters.
  • Third party option? - Americans Elect’s Elliot Ackerman and No Labels’ Mark McKinnon discuss the demand for a third party candidate and the possibility of a viable, non-partisan or bipartisan option in November. (VIDEO and TRANSCRIPT - Chuck Todd interviews, msnbc/ The Daily Rundown) McKinnon: >> well, it starts with leadership. it will relate to policy. it's highly unlikely that whoever is on the ticket will talk about policy that goes to simpson-boles idea. it seems obvious to everyone out there we need more revenue and entitlement reforms. we're talking about unity in the sense that we have to work towards solutions. once that happens at the presidential level, everybody else in the senate n the congress is saying if it's getting that reaction i better look at what's happening at my seat.
  • Analysis: Obama pitches middle while GOP eyes base (CBS News) "I think the president ended up looking like the responsible person in the room," said Lanae Erickson of the Democratic-leaning group Third Way, which has studied independent voting trends. "The Republican primary candidates went way out on a limb and will alienate themselves with independent voters," she said.
  • Not Too Late for Americans Elect to Win 2012 Presidential Election (by Douglas Schoen, Daily Beast) When Barack Obama and Mitt Romney’s names were used explicitly, support for an independent was still at 25 percent, as one-quarter said they would vote for “an alternative unity ticket with a Democrat and a Republican as president and vice president,” while the rest of the respondents were split evenly. Support for the two major candidates moved up to 37 percent for Obama and 38 percent for Romney, only a very modest 12- or 13-point lead over an unnamed, independent challenger.
  • Obama Leads in General Election Matchup (Pew Research, from Santorum Catches Romney in GOP Race - Obama Leads Both in General Election Matchups) Over the course of the campaign, Romney’s image among independent voters has suffered substantially. Most notably, the number who believe he is honest and trustworthy has fallen from 53% to 41%, while the number who say he is not has risen from 32% to 45%.
  • Independent voters are rejecting Romney (By John Avlon, CNN) A new CNN/ORC International poll finds that 53% of independents have an unfavorable view of Romney, compared with 44% last month. It has potentially huge implications extending into the fall. Remember that independents are the largest and fastest-growing segment of the electorate -- reaching an unprecedented 40% in the most recent Gallup Poll.
  • 51% - Independents Help Obama Build Lead Over Romney (Pew Research) Barack Obama now holds an eight-point lead over Mitt Romney in a hypothetical general election matchup, and he has gained significant ground among independent voters. A month ago, 40% of independents said they would back Obama over Romney – today, 51% say so. The percentage of independents on Team Romney has slipped from 50% to 42% in the last month.

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