2012 Iowa Caucus/ New Hampshire Primary: Where are the Independents?

I wouldn't bother you with last week's news but it's the current topic of msm... I tried to pick out some of the more interesting items relative to independent voters. More to come! - NH


2012
PPP: Obama's base as enthusiastic as conservatives (By BYRON TAU, Politico) The Democratic-leaning pollster Public Policy Polling  [SEE BELOW] finds that African-Americans, tea party supporters and young people are the three most motivated demographic groups going into the 2012 election cycle.
Enthusiasm and the 2012 Election (Public Policy Polling) Obama's path to reelection is difficult and if the election was today and the Republican nominee was Mitt Romney I think he'd probably lose. That's because his standing has fallen so far with independents and with the more conservative wing of his own party. But it's not because those core groups that fueled his victory in 2008 have lost their enthusiasm.
Independents represent a major unknown in the N.H. primary (By Sandhya Somashekhar, Washington Post) Independents are a finicky and fickle bunch. They are deeply dissatisfied with the direction of the country, with a majority saying things are badly off track. Social issues do not concern them. Many voted for President Obama. And now, this critical voting bloc — which makes up roughly 45 percent of the New Hampshire electorate — is about to take center stage. If the Iowa contest exposed the conflicted mood and sharp divisions within the GOP, then New Hampshire will offer a snapshot of a hard-to-pin-down sliver of the electorate that has an outsize impact on elections, particularly in this swing state.
Ron Paul says he got youth, Independent vote (Mary Stegmeir, Des Moines Register) Ron Paul said this morning that a large number of young people and Independent voters supported him in Tuesday’s Iowa caucuses, proving his campaign can go the distance.
Shields, Brooks on the Macro and Micro Stories of the Iowa Caucuses (Judy Woodruff, PBSNewsHour on YouTube) The "sleeper story" is how Ron Paul is resonating among independent voters, NewsHour regular Mark Shields adds.
Americans Elect: Obama's Third-Party Tar Pit (By Jared E. Peterson, American Thinker) Anyone with the remotest interest in replacing Barack Obama as America's president in 2012 should take his eyes off Iowa and the boring ups and downs of the race for the Republican nomination. The real action that may well decide our next president is quietly going on elsewhere, in the state offices that qualify candidates and parties for the November 2012 presidential ballot.  You may not have heard much about a shadowy group called "Americans Elect"…

Ron Paul, New Hampshire Open Primaries, and the Future of the Nation

AMERICANS ELECT
What is Americans Elect All About? (CHARLES ELLISON, Politics 365) Some observers are speculating that it’s a front for a potential Independent bid from New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who 1) has lots of cash and 2) is not a big fan of President Obama. And who has the most to lost from this effort?

2012

• Ron Paul’s strategy for winning: Independent and cross-over voters (By Brad Knickerbocker, Christian Science Monitor) Still, the same one-on-one fake elections show other Republican presidential hopefuls in the field – Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Michele Bachmann – losing to Obama among independents. Only GOP front-runner Mitt Romney comes close, tying Obama among such partyless voters (but losing overall, as do the others). Why is this important? It’s because independents are the fastest growing segment of our nominally two-party system, swelling the ranks of voters as the Democratic Party and the Republican Party alike lose trust and loyalty.
• Do New Hampshire endorsements really matter? (By ADAM SILBERT, Nashua Telegraph) The state’s open primary allows independents to vote in either party’s contest. This makes a state already known for its independent streak even more unpredictable. And party-affiliated voters tend not to listen to what party leaders tell them to do. Sure as their snow-covered mountains, they certainly don’t obey what happens one week prior in the Iowa caucuses.
• The GOP’s Supercommittee Backlash (by John Avlon, Daily Beast) This corresponds with a CNN poll taken the week before the supercommittee decided to wave the white flag. It showed that 40 percent of independent voters would blame Republicans more for a supercommittee failure, while 24 percent would blame the Democrats. Likewise, 47 percent of self-identified centrists said they would blame the GOP, while 25 percent said the Dems would be most at fault.

Obama, Paul Face NH Indies and Dems

2012

• Obama on Tuesday to face NH voters now sour on him (By Steve Peoples, Associated Press, Boston Globe) In a likely nod to independents, Obama is expected Tuesday to prod Congress to extend a temporary cut in payroll taxes that has enjoyed bipartisan support. The tax cut will expire at the end of the year unless Congress extends it again.
  
• Brooks: Country needs a ray of hope (BY DAVID BROOKS, NEW YORK TIMES in Albany Times Union) The era of the two moons is a volatile era. Independent voters are trapped in a cycle of sour rejectionism -- voting against whichever of the two options they dislike most at the moment. In policy terms, the era of the two moons is an era of stagnation. Each party is too weak to push its own agenda and too encased by its own cocoon to agree to a hybrid. The supercommittee failed for this reason.

• Anti-war Ron Paul attracting support from local left (By Michael Kitch, Laconia Daily Sun - NH) Lynn Rudmin Chong, former chair of the Belknap County Democratic Committee, has publicly endorsed Paul and said that "I have found other kindred souls." The Sanbornton resident said that she left the Democratic Party and changed her voter registration to "undeclared" in anticipation of  taking a Republican ballot in New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation presidential primary and casting her vote for Paul.

Hunting for Independents in New Hampshire

2012

• Huntsman: 'I'm running as a Republican' (By NBC's Jo Ling Kent, msnbc) ...not as an independent...
• Courting N.H. Independents, Huntsman Bills Himself as the Candidate to Unite the GOP (By Lindsey Boerma, National Journal) Hours before presidential front runner Mitt Romney took the stage at a Tea Party Express rally Sunday night in Concord, N.H., in an attempt to woo far-right conservatives, his fellow GOP candidate Jon Huntsman indicated to reporters in Alton Bay that he’d rather focus his time and resources on independents.
• Hopes Rising, G.O.P. Voters Seek a Winner (By ASHLEY PARKER and JEFF ZELENY, NY Times) For all the consternation among some party leaders about the strength of the field of candidates, the conversations with Republicans and independent voters revealed a sense of satisfaction at their array of choices. The interviews reflected a marked shift in the mood from only months ago, when many Republicans were openly skeptical that Mr. Obama could be defeated.
• What the Left Doesn’t Understand About Obama (By JONATHAN CHAIT, NY Times) Liberal critics of Obama, just like conservative critics of Republican presidents, generally want both maximal partisan conflict and maximal legislative achievement. In the real world, those two things are often at odds. Hence the allure of magical thinking.

Happy Non-Ideological Independence Day!

Here's a spot-on opinion piece for Independence Day from John Sununu, the former US Senator from New Hampshire:

Independence — a state of mind, not a spot on the spectrum (By John E. Sununu, Boston Globe) Undeclared voters come from all across the political spectrum - they just don’t want to tell you where… The ideological make-up of a state’s independent voters depends largely upon whether they are permitted to vote in party primaries.

Independents Are 42% in New Hampshire

INDEPENDENT VOTERS

Unlike 4 years ago, heavy independent participation likely in GOP presidential primary (HOLLY RAMER  Associated Press, First Posted: The Republic - Columbus IN) Independent voters, who make up nearly 42 percent of registered voters in the state, can participate in either party's primary. And, given that President Barack Obama has no serious Democratic challenger, most independents are expected to cast ballots in the GOP race next February, unlike in the last presidential campaign.

Rudy Appeal to New Hampshire Independents??

2012

• Rudy Will Fail (By David Weigel, Slate) Giuliani’s path, according to Semprini, would be less fundraising-driven than last time, offering a center-right alternative and that would appeal to [New Hampshire's] roughly 40 percent swath of independent voters, most of whom voted in the Democratic primary last time.

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS 9/14/10

INDEPENDENT VOTERS

• Independent Voters In N.C. Hold The Power (Written by Bruce Ferrell, North Carolina News Network)
• Crist appeals to Democrats, independents in new ads (From CNN Political Producer Peter Hamby) For Crist to win in November, he must win something close to a majority of independent voters while also peeling off substantial portions of Democratic votes from Rep. Kendrick Meek and GOP votes from former House Speaker Marco Rubio.

OPEN PRIMARIES

• Delaware politics: State's elections can get quirky - From late primaries to arcane laws, Del.'s process is unique (By J.L. MILLER, The News Journal) Delaware's closed primary system gives a boost to motivated voters. Democrats vote in Democratic primaries, Republicans vote in Republican primaries, and the 146,212 voters who aren't Democrats or Republicans -- 23.5 percent of the electorate -- are shut out of the primary process. That might seem odd to people from Texas, South Carolina and the 22 other states with open primaries, where all voters have a say in who winds up on the ballot in November. Delaware State University political science professor Sam Hoff said the closed primary "may seem strange to some," but that it shows Delaware has "a pretty strong, durable party system."

TUESDAY PRIMARIES

• Delaware not the only Tea Party vs. GOP battle Tuesday (By Paul Steinhauser, CNN Deputy Political Director) Palin's endorsement earlier this summer and Ayotte's support by many national Republicans may have backfired in fiercely independent New Hampshire. The moves have drawn repeated criticism by the Union Leader.
• Bill Clinton in Minneapolis For Dayton Fundraiser (by Tom Halden / FOX 9 News) While it’s possible another Independent could win the race outright, at least one analyst doesn’t see this as a repeat of 1992, when Independent Ross Perot took votes from President George H.W. Bush, launching then-Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton into the White House. "More of the Democrats, the moderate Democrats, they're going to tilt more toward Horner,” University of Minnesota Prof. Larry Jacobs said. “And if Horner was not in the race, they'd be voting for Dayton.”
•  http://www.myfoxtwincities.com/dpp/news/politics/bill-clinton-dayton-fundraiser-minneapolis-sept-14-2010
• * Granite Status: Polls show Republican U.S. Senate primary race dead heat (By JOHN DISTASO, Senior Political Reporter, Union Leader) Lamontagne's show of strength among independents counters conventional wisdom that in New Hampshire, such voters are generally more moderate than traditional Republican voters.It appears that in this election, independents are in fact conservatives who appear to have been disenfranchised from a GOP they apparently see as part of the problem in Washington.
• Time to vote - Anger aside, voters should seek character (EDITORIAL Worcester News Telegram) Independent voters hold the balance of power in their hands, both today and on Nov. 2. However angry they may be at incumbents, or however dismissive of a political newcomer, we think democracy is best served when voters cast their ballots on the basis of qualifications, not party affiliation.
• Candidates Eschewing Party Labels in New Hampshire's U.S. Senate Campaign (By Tom Moroney, Bloomberg News) In New Hampshire, the preponderance of undeclared or independent voters offers another reason for candidates to play down their party affiliation, Hodes said. Undeclared voters number 388,220, compared with 267,725 Democrats and 266,077 Republicans, according to Secretary of State Bill Gardner’s website. The unaffiliated voters can vote in the primary of their choice.
• Tea Party primary wins in Delaware and New Hampshire could ruin GOP chances of Senate takeover (BY ALIYAH SHAHID, DAILY NEWS STAFF WRITER)
• Primary Day in Rhode Island: How to vote, get results (Providence Journal/Newsblog) The largest slice of Rhode Island voters is made up of independents -- or "unaffiliated" voters -- and they can vote in either the Democratic or Republican primaries Tuesday.
• A ‘Shoo-In’ Struggles in Massachusetts Race (By ABBY GOODNOUGH, NY Times) One theory is that Mr. Baker, a Harvard graduate who seems most comfortable talking policy, lacks the populist touch that came naturally to the truck-driving Mr. Brown and that independent voters, who make up 51 percent of the electorate here, seem to crave.
• A primer on today's primary (By LaCross Tribune - WI) This is an open primary, meaning voters are not required to declare a party before voting. What is the most common error voters make when voting in the primary? Cross voting. For instance, you choose to vote Republican and then down on the ballot you vote for an individual Democrat. Voters may only vote for candidates of one party.
• Primary Election Day: Please Vote! (Bostonist (blog) Barney Frank has a primary opponent, who he chose to debate, you might have heard of in the 4th District Race. Rachel Brown once clashed with Frank after she compared health care reform to Naziism.

COLORADO

• Incumbents in local contests lead early money race (John Stroud, Post Independent) Curry, who left the Democratic Party last December to become an independent, lost a legal challenge to have her name included on the Nov. 2 ballot. Curry reported $16,715 in new campaign funds during the most recent reporting period from July 29 through Sept. 1, including a $10,000 loan, and $6,715 in contributions.
• Independent Voters for Colorado A statewide strategy, communications, and organizing center working to connect and empower those in the state of Colorado who identify themselves as independent or unaffiliated voters. 

NYC CHARTER REVISION

• Term Limits in New York (LETTER NY Times by Matthew Goldstein)

I'm an Independent Voter - Can I Vote in the Primary in New Hampshire?

Yes you can! Undeclared voters — those not registered with any party — can vote in either party primary.  In 2009, partisans unsuccessfully tried to make changes to this rule. (Also see IndependentVoting.org for more info and connections for independents in New Hampshire)

From Steve Peoples at CQ Politics, Ayotte's Lead Narrows in N.H. GOP Senate Primary:


Ayotte led 37 percent to Lamontagne's 30 percent among likely Republican primary voters. Deep-pocketed businessman Bill Binnie garnered just 13 percent, despite having spent nearly $6 million out of his own pocket, while another conservative favorite, Jim Bender, finished last with 12 percent.

The survey of 1,134 likely Republican primary voters (New Hampshire's open primary system allows voters of all political affiliations to participate in the contest) was conducted Saturday and Sunday. The margin of error was 2.9 points.

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

INDEPENDENT VOTERS

• Updated: Welcome to ‘Blue Hampshire,’ Dems claim (By Brian Lawson, PolitickerNH.com) "Numbers indicate that voters are joining the Democratic Party in New Hampshire by a two to one margin over undeclared and a three to one margin over the Republicans - making the Democrats the fastest growing of the three. If these trends continue at the current rate, Democrats will outnumber undeclared voters within seven years," a Democratic press release stated."
• HERE'S THE PRESS RELEASE: NH Democrats Now Out Number Republicans in Granite State (Posted on Politicker NH)
• Dems say they're the majority in NH now (Nashua Telegraph)
• The Decline of Conservative (By Sahil Kapur, Claremont Portside) Moderates are shifting leftward as they crave a new direction, and self-identified independent voters preferred Barack Obama over John McCain by eight points.
• Survey reveals voting disparities on Nov. 4 (USA Today) Democrats were more confident about the process in states that traditionally vote Democratic, such as New York, and Republicans in "red states" such as Texas. In states such as Virginia that were closely contested, independent voters were less confident about the process.
• Closely Related Headlines (Posted by Eric Earling, Puget Sound Politics) The simple truth is that Obama accomplished what he did electorally because significant number of independent voters switched from Bush in 2004 to him. These are not exactly left-of-center voters
• 18 Million Independents Vote for Barack Obama.
  From IndependentVoting.org November 2008 CUIP President Jackie Salit gives a post-election analysis of the independent movement and the 2008 presidential elections.

OPEN PRIMARIES
Redistricting OK'd; open primary next? (Thomas D. Elias, Ventura County Star) If Californians really want a state government that works, they'll support the open primary whenever it makes the ballot, just as they easily passed the Proposition 198 blanket primary more than 12 years ago.

NEW YORK POLITICS/INDEPENDENCE PARTY

• Dr. Lenora Fulani Confirmed She “Is Considering” A Run for Office Next Year, Possibly Mayor or Public Advocate (posted by Mary Alice Miller, Room Eight) If Mayor Bloomberg sought the Independence Party's endorsement, or to run on the Independence line, “He has to come with some major, major, major changes. He had to go beyond where he is. As far as I am concerned, he should change his mind.”
• [AND SPEAKING OF FULANI.....] I'm now a believer (Charles E. Richardson, Macon.com)

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

• Unity 08's Doug Bailey thinks 55% electorate would be open to an independent Bloomberg run., and that should be encouraging... (NY Sun)




• Both (R and D) Iowa primaries in a dead heat + four of five Democrats and two–thirds of Republicans say they are angry at the U.S. political system = ???? (Zogby.com)




• "Spoiler" label for Ron Paul -- Hmmmm.... he must be doing something right in New Hampshire (Wall Street Journal)




• Pew Research says Hispanic voters now prefer Dems (NY Times)




• Obama appeals to the nonprofit sector, points to Harlem Children's Zone as model program (Chronicle of Philanthropy)




• Steven Stark talks about the latest Rasmussen poll and its significance to Obama & The Black Vote in South Carolina and throughout the South (RealClearPolitics)




• Oprah Winfrey’s Obama -- will black women listen? (By: Earl Ofari Hutchinson, Special to BlackAmericaWeb.com)




• Vance Norgaard to run IP in Minnesota special state Senate election (Pioneer Press)




• Virginia's Lucky Narain running independent for vacant 1st Congressional seat (Stafford County Sun)




• Ballot initiative filed in California to end "winner-take-all" electoral votes. Who would benefit? (LA Times blog)




• Party-controlled system is eroding participatory democracy in New Jersey. (Cherry Hill Courier Post editorial)




• Nonpartisan elections Von Reichbauer initiative -- call it voters' revenge (Seattle Post Intelligencer)




• Activist Paul Jacob (see yesterday's post on The Hankster) expects 'ham sandwich' justice from Okla. AG (LegalNewline)




• I&R would helpf shift balance of power to back to electorate (LETTER to Asbury Partk Press)




• Gennifer Flowers likes Hillary (NY Post)




• Question of the week: Who do you vote for? Do you follow the party line or do you carefully consider each candidate when voting? Add your comment to the question of the week. (Napa Valley Register)