The Ron Paul - Mitt Romney Connection

2012

• Ron Paul’s Long Game (By Jonathan Chait, New York Magazine/ Daily Intel) Paul’s game is to trade his supporters for a seat at the Republican table.
• For Romney and Paul, a strategic alliance between establishment and outsider (By Amy Gardner, Washington Post) The Romney-Paul alliance is more than a curious connection. It is a strategic partnership: for Paul, an opportunity to gain a seat at the table if his long-shot bid for the presidency fails; for Romney, a chance to gain support from one of the most vibrant subgroups within the Republican Party.

#1 Reform Issue for Independent Voters: Open Primaries!

OPEN PRIMARIES

• The Nation: Six GOP Questions (by John Nichols, NPR - John Nichols is a writer for The Nation.) 6. South Carolina held an open primary election, as compared with Iowa's caucuses and New Hampshire's relatively closed primary. While the first-caucus and first-primary states saw only marginal improvements in turnout, South Carolina's was way up. And, by all accounts, South Carolina counted the votes accurately and produced a clear result — as opposed to the Iowa mess that fostered the lie of Romnevitability. Isn't it time to create a uniform and functional system for nominating candidates? Shouldn't caucuses, which invariably draw narrower portions of the electorate, be eliminated? And shouldn't all states have open primaries where everyone who wants to vote Republican can do so? And shouldn't the rules be structured so that all serious contenders can have a place on the ballot — even in Virginia?
• Appeals court upholds Washington state's open primary system (By Carol J. Williams, Los Angeles Times) In a decision that could foreshadow survival of California's new "top two" primary system, the U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals on Thursday upheld a similar Washington state ballot initiative that changed the way voters choose candidates in primaries.
• American Independent Party Opens its Primary to Independent Voters (Ballot Access News) On January 22, the American Independent Party of California held a meeting of party officers, and voted to tell the California Secretary of State that it will permit independents to vote in its 2012 primary. Of course, because of Proposition 14, the only partisan primaries will be for President. The American Independent Party allowed independents to vote in its primaries in 2008 and earlier years, but in 2010 it changed its rules and didn’t allow independents to vote in its primary.
• Dems Pre-Endorsements Presage Tough 2012 (Posted by John Myers, KQED/ Capital Notes) Again, these meetings and subsequent endorsements are notable because of the brave new world of party primaries, ushered in by 2010's Proposition 14 top-two system. It's a world unsettled, too, by new district maps that have left more open seats than at any time in recent history.
• Election 101: Who are Florida primary voters, and how are they different? - In Florida, only preregistered Republican Party members can vote in the GOP presidential primary. That’s different from South Carolina and New Hampshire. Here's a look at the various types of elections. (By Peter Grier, Christian Science Monitor) In Florida, only preregistered Republican Party members can vote in the GOP primary. That’s different from South Carolina, where independents and even Democrats could cross over and participate in the Republican primary if they wanted to. It’s also different from New Hampshire, where independents (but not Democrats) could go GOP.
• Skipping Florida smart for Ron Paul (By Adam C. Smith, Times Political Editor, Tampa Bay Times) There's another logical reason: Paul never had much chance of doing well in Florida, which is the first contest in the primary season where only registered Republicans can vote. Paul does best in caucuses and "open primaries" where his army of devoted, young followers can vote Republican whether or not they have any strong allegiance to the GOP.
• U.S. needs to reform elections (LETTER Greenville online) Set filing dates three months before primary elections. Schedule open primaries for all 50 states on the same day. Hold general elections three months later.
• On politics: Voting reform must be bold, far-reaching (By RAY HACKETT, Norwich Bulletin) Let’s stop the pretense that we’re “preserving the sanctity of the party” by pretending we don’t want to open primaries to unaffiliated voters while we continue to turn a blind eye to this election-related version of “don’t ask, don’t tell.”… Second, let’s give voters a real choice, a real reason to come to the polls. Let’s be bold and declare that all candidates who qualify for the ballot will be treated equally. Let’s stop the hypocrisy of pretending that public financing provides an equal playing field — because it doesn’t if you’re something other than a Democrat or Republican.
• Latina-led Movement Urges Democratic Latinos to Vote in “Open Primaries”- Anyone But Romney (Hispanically Speaking News.com) Arizona-based National Tequila Party Movement is issuing an action alert to encourage Independent and Democratic Latinos to vote in the numerous state open primary races across the country.

2012 Presidential Race: Where Are the Independents Going?

2012

• South Carolina and the independent vote (VIDEO The Fix author Aaron Blake looks ahead to the South Carolina primary and how independent voters could play a big part. (Washington Post)
• Ron Paul's Weak Support Among Registered Republicans Will Hurt Him In Closed Primaries (By: Noah Rothman, …ology.com) The exit polls from South Carolina’s semi-closed primary do not bode well for the Paul. He mirror’s Romney’s appeal among registered independent voters; Romney narrowly won this group with 25 percent to Paul’s 23 percent. Ideologically, Paul performs very well among those that describe themselves as “moderate,” “somewhat liberal,” or “very liberal.” Among voters that describe themselves as “conservative,” between 9 and 11 percent voted for Paul.
• State of the Union Speech To Feature Sharper Tone (By LAURA MECKLER and CAROL E. LEE, Wall Street Journal) The risk for Mr. Obama, voiced by some members of his own party, is that such a tone may please only the base. "People aren't walking around saying 'the reason why my kid may not attain the American dream is because somebody else is doing extraordinarily well,' " said Jim Kessler, a senior vice president at Third Way, a centrist Democratic think tank. Support from independents was critical in 2008, and they "really do want to look for someone putting country over party," he said.
• The Third-Party Rail - As the donkey battles the elephant, some say: There’s got to be a better way. (By John Heilemann, New York Magazine) A contest between two incarnations of the status quo is, of course, a decent definition of what an Obama-Romney general election will be: two smart, cool, and diffident candidates, each without a populist bone in his body—though both will try like crazy to pretend that’s not the case—offering nothing that will look to millions of voters like fundamental change. An independent candidate who can offer a real alternative to them, stylistically and temperamentally as well as substantively, could be a genuine game-changer in 2012.
• South Carolina Exit Poll for Republican Race (CBS News) No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a Democrat (4%),  Republican (71%),  Independent (25%)...
• Independents Remain One Of Obama’s Biggest Election Hurdles (Written by NewsOne Staff) The poll revealed that only 31 percent of Independents viewed the President positively, while two-thirds of Independents were unhappy with the President’s economic progress. These poll findings mean that much of the swing voter base is up for grabs, although it should be noted that most Independents also have a negative view of Republicans.

A Third Party in a Two-Party System? Better to Change the System

Polls are showing that the majority of Americans support a "third party" or a "third party candidate" and yet our current partisan political system will not tolerate a challenge from a so-called "third" party or candidate. At the same time, Americans are no dummies -- the fastest growing electoral constituency is nonpartisan independent voters. Hmmmm.......


THIRD PARTY?

• Group circulating petitions to get reform party on the Utah ballot (By Nkoyo Iyamba, Deseret News) Despite Utahns voting primarily Republican, Dives said most Utah registered voters aren't registered with a political party. "If you go to the lieutenant governor's office and ask for the roll, you'll see that there are more unaffiliated registered voters than there are Republicans and Democrats combined," Dives said. She believes this group is ready for an alternative to the perceived two-party system in America.
• Obama fares well against third-party challenge (By BYRON TAU, Politico) Via POLITICO's Alex Burns, a Democratic polling firm finds that President Barack Obama's support holds up well if an independent candidate like Michael Bloomberg or Ron Paul were to enter the race.
• Dude, where's my candidate? (By: Kenneth P. Vogel and Abby Phillip, Politico) “We don’t want to let the process be taken over by the Gary Colemans and the Mary Careys or the Naked Cowboys,” said Bailey. “There are people out there who could get some support, but don’t have the qualifications, and that includes some people out there in the political process already.”
• Young Voters Propel Ron Paul's Campaign - Young voters gravitating to oldest guy in the field (By Beth Fouhy, NBC Dallas Ft Worth Channel 5)

American Elects, Ron Paul and the Third Party Option

AMERICANS ELECT

• Has Ron Paul thought of this? (Clarence Page, Times Daily.com - Tennessee Valley) But I am skeptical that adding another candidate selection process will solve more headaches than it creates, although from a journalist’s standpoint, it could be fun to cover. That’s why I was not joking with my Paul-Clinton ticket question. A web-based alternative nominating process is almost tailor-made for Texas Rep. Ron Paul’s army of web-savvy supporters if he loses his Republican presidential bid, as widely expected. A groundswell of support for him already is beginning to appear among Americans Elect delegates.
• Opinion: Now is the Best Time for a Third Party to Rise (By Solomon Kleinsmith) A centrist third party could prosper in today’s political environment and end the stalemate in Washington. There is a large body of moderate Republicans, disaffected Democrats and dissatisfied independents looking for the kind of political home that this party could provide. Unhappiness with the political options now available to Americans will sooner or later translate into a groundswell for alternatives.

2012 Iowa Caucus/ New Hampshire Primary: Where are the Independents?

I wouldn't bother you with last week's news but it's the current topic of msm... I tried to pick out some of the more interesting items relative to independent voters. More to come! - NH


2012
PPP: Obama's base as enthusiastic as conservatives (By BYRON TAU, Politico) The Democratic-leaning pollster Public Policy Polling  [SEE BELOW] finds that African-Americans, tea party supporters and young people are the three most motivated demographic groups going into the 2012 election cycle.
Enthusiasm and the 2012 Election (Public Policy Polling) Obama's path to reelection is difficult and if the election was today and the Republican nominee was Mitt Romney I think he'd probably lose. That's because his standing has fallen so far with independents and with the more conservative wing of his own party. But it's not because those core groups that fueled his victory in 2008 have lost their enthusiasm.
Independents represent a major unknown in the N.H. primary (By Sandhya Somashekhar, Washington Post) Independents are a finicky and fickle bunch. They are deeply dissatisfied with the direction of the country, with a majority saying things are badly off track. Social issues do not concern them. Many voted for President Obama. And now, this critical voting bloc — which makes up roughly 45 percent of the New Hampshire electorate — is about to take center stage. If the Iowa contest exposed the conflicted mood and sharp divisions within the GOP, then New Hampshire will offer a snapshot of a hard-to-pin-down sliver of the electorate that has an outsize impact on elections, particularly in this swing state.
Ron Paul says he got youth, Independent vote (Mary Stegmeir, Des Moines Register) Ron Paul said this morning that a large number of young people and Independent voters supported him in Tuesday’s Iowa caucuses, proving his campaign can go the distance.
Shields, Brooks on the Macro and Micro Stories of the Iowa Caucuses (Judy Woodruff, PBSNewsHour on YouTube) The "sleeper story" is how Ron Paul is resonating among independent voters, NewsHour regular Mark Shields adds.
Americans Elect: Obama's Third-Party Tar Pit (By Jared E. Peterson, American Thinker) Anyone with the remotest interest in replacing Barack Obama as America's president in 2012 should take his eyes off Iowa and the boring ups and downs of the race for the Republican nomination. The real action that may well decide our next president is quietly going on elsewhere, in the state offices that qualify candidates and parties for the November 2012 presidential ballot.  You may not have heard much about a shadowy group called "Americans Elect"…

Ron Paul concedes third place finish, Gingrich concedes fourth in Iowa

By Kelly Carson *  By Hannah Hess * IowaPolitics.com * Tuesday, January 3

DES MOINES — Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul conceded a third place finish in the Iowa Republican Caucuses late Tuesday night, vowing to press on in his 2012 presidential campaign.

With 89 percent of precincts reporting, Paul had 21 percent of the Republican caucus vote, according to reporting by the Republican Party of Iowa.

"This momentum is going to continue and this movement is going to continue," Paul vowed to a chanting crowd in his Ankeny campaign headquarters. "We will go on, we will raise the money," he said. "I have no doubt about the volunteers."

Shortly after, former Iowa frontrunner Newt Gingrich also conceded to fourth place with 13 percent of the vote after 89 percent of precincts reported. "There will be a great debate in the Republican Party before we are ready to have a great debate with (President) Barack Obama," Gingrich said, while promising to continue his campaign. He praised and congratulated Santorum for running a "positive" campaign and warned voters not to nominate Paul because of his "dangerous" foreign policy views.

Results from the Republican Party of Iowa with 89 percent of precincts reporting are:
Tied for 1. Romney and Santorum, 25 percent
UPDATE: Romney wins by 8 votes
3. Paul, 21 percent
4. Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, 13 percent
5. Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 10 percent
6. Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, 5 percent
7. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, 1 percent
8. Herman Cain, less than 1 percent

Independents 2012: Don't Bet Your House

2012

• Unaligned N.H. vote a test for Mitt Romney - Independents could change the momentum in GOP (By Sarah Schweitzer, Boston Globe) Undeclared voters - who are commonly called independents, and who account for more than 40 percent of New Hampshire’s registered voters - don’t appear poised to derail Romney’s longtime lead over his rivals in New Hampshire. With 39 percent of the overall vote in the UNH Survey Center/Boston Globe poll released Sunday, he had a comfortable margin, and significant support among the independents. Among those independents who have declared their allegiance, 32 percent say they back Romney. 
• Youth vote won't return for Obama in 2012, report says (By Perry Bacon Jr., the Grio) In a report on Wednesday, Curtis Gans, director of the Washington-based Center for the American Electorate, predicted voter turnout overall (as a percentage of the eligible voting population) would be lower than in 2008 or 2004. He argued those two elections fired up voters, particularly Democrats, in a way neither party will in 2012.
• New Iowa Poll May Understate Paul’s Support (By NATE SILVER, NY Times/ FiveThirtyEight) The recent Public Policy Polling survey, for instance, estimated that 24 percent of Iowa caucus participants are currently registered as independents or Democrats and will re-register as Republicans at the caucuses. This month’s Washington Post/ABC News poll put the fraction at 18 percent. There is room to debate what the right number is but it will certainly not be zero, as the CNN poll assumes.
• Democrats Lag in Voter Registration (By LAURA MECKLER, Wall Street Journal) Today, far fewer people are registering, and the enormous Democratic advantage among new voters in North Carolina has vanished, according to new data from Catalist, a group with Democratic ties that studies voter rolls. That illustrates a broader challenge for the president's party. Democrats still hold an overall registration advantage in many states, but Obama campaign officials and other Democrats say it is important to bring new Obama voters onto the rolls—both to replenish voters who drop off and offset possible losses among independent voters, who have been skeptical of Mr. Obama's job performance.

Politics 2012: Watch Out for the Independents

TOP TWO OPEN PRIMARY
Lawsuit argues top-two open primary system is unconstitutional (By: Damon Eris, US Independent Voter Network) At this stage, mainstream and corporate media coverage of challenges to the top two system seem to be misinformed.  For instance, In its report on the lawsuit from November 23rd, The San Francisco Chronicle wrote that the plaintiffs in the suit are seeking the preliminary injunction “in hopes of preventing the new system from being used during next year’s presidential contest.”  In fact, there is no mention of presidential elections anywhere in the lawsuit’s complaint, and the top-two open primary system does not even apply to presidential elections.

BLOOMBERG 2012
Why it's worth paying attention to Michael Bloomberg, even when he's just posing (By Steve Kornacki, Capital New York) As rote as it seemed, it was still interesting to watch Bloomberg execute his latest gimmick, not because it suggested the 69-year-old mayor will actually seek the White House (he almost certainly won’t, next year or ever) but because the idea that he might seemed to generate an unusual level of interest from the political world. This is something you might want to get used to, at least for the next few months, not just because Bloomberg undeniably has the financial resources to mount a national campaign if he really wants to, but because for only the third time in 32 years it appears that next year’s election will feature the three ingredients that are most conducive to the emergence of a credible third party candidate.

RON PAUL 2012
Ron Paul Rising (Brian Doherty, Reason Online) "I could very well see Ron Paul coming in second place," said longtime pollster Andy Smith, who runs the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

NEW YORK

• Bronx judge: Keep Pedro Espada’s Soundview clinic open to meet healthcare needs of the NYC’s poor. Judge: Health system will be burdened without Soundview (BY Kevin Deutsch, NEW YORK DAILY NEWS) In a separate development Monday, several patients and medical providers who work with Espada's network filed petitions in support of the clinics. They claim the shuttering of the clinics would leave 20,000 patients without affordable health care and lead them to overwhelm other Bronx doctors.
• A Court, Not Votes, Sustains a Political Machine in Queens (By MICHAEL POWELL, NY Times) “Surrogate’s Court is the play,” notes a well-connected Queens Democrat who remains that way by talking anonymously. “You can’t talk about what makes the machine tick without talking about surrogates.”

LAST WORD
Who Believes The U.S. Is Bailing Out Europe? (Forbes) “Since we’re controlling for partisanship and education, it seems like there really is something about watching Fox that makes people less informed on this issue than they would be otherwise,” said Dan Cassino, a political science professor at FDU. “Given that Fox’s ratings are well above their competitors, the findings are very troubling.”
Who is bailing out Europe? Independent voters are least likely to answer that correctly. While 36% of Republicans can, followed by 33% of Democrats.  Only 26% of political independents name Germany, with 30% of them thinking it is the U.S.

Ron Paul, New Hampshire Open Primaries, and the Future of the Nation

AMERICANS ELECT
What is Americans Elect All About? (CHARLES ELLISON, Politics 365) Some observers are speculating that it’s a front for a potential Independent bid from New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who 1) has lots of cash and 2) is not a big fan of President Obama. And who has the most to lost from this effort?

2012

• Ron Paul’s strategy for winning: Independent and cross-over voters (By Brad Knickerbocker, Christian Science Monitor) Still, the same one-on-one fake elections show other Republican presidential hopefuls in the field – Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Michele Bachmann – losing to Obama among independents. Only GOP front-runner Mitt Romney comes close, tying Obama among such partyless voters (but losing overall, as do the others). Why is this important? It’s because independents are the fastest growing segment of our nominally two-party system, swelling the ranks of voters as the Democratic Party and the Republican Party alike lose trust and loyalty.
• Do New Hampshire endorsements really matter? (By ADAM SILBERT, Nashua Telegraph) The state’s open primary allows independents to vote in either party’s contest. This makes a state already known for its independent streak even more unpredictable. And party-affiliated voters tend not to listen to what party leaders tell them to do. Sure as their snow-covered mountains, they certainly don’t obey what happens one week prior in the Iowa caucuses.
• The GOP’s Supercommittee Backlash (by John Avlon, Daily Beast) This corresponds with a CNN poll taken the week before the supercommittee decided to wave the white flag. It showed that 40 percent of independent voters would blame Republicans more for a supercommittee failure, while 24 percent would blame the Democrats. Likewise, 47 percent of self-identified centrists said they would blame the GOP, while 25 percent said the Dems would be most at fault.

Obama, Paul Face NH Indies and Dems

2012

• Obama on Tuesday to face NH voters now sour on him (By Steve Peoples, Associated Press, Boston Globe) In a likely nod to independents, Obama is expected Tuesday to prod Congress to extend a temporary cut in payroll taxes that has enjoyed bipartisan support. The tax cut will expire at the end of the year unless Congress extends it again.
  
• Brooks: Country needs a ray of hope (BY DAVID BROOKS, NEW YORK TIMES in Albany Times Union) The era of the two moons is a volatile era. Independent voters are trapped in a cycle of sour rejectionism -- voting against whichever of the two options they dislike most at the moment. In policy terms, the era of the two moons is an era of stagnation. Each party is too weak to push its own agenda and too encased by its own cocoon to agree to a hybrid. The supercommittee failed for this reason.

• Anti-war Ron Paul attracting support from local left (By Michael Kitch, Laconia Daily Sun - NH) Lynn Rudmin Chong, former chair of the Belknap County Democratic Committee, has publicly endorsed Paul and said that "I have found other kindred souls." The Sanbornton resident said that she left the Democratic Party and changed her voter registration to "undeclared" in anticipation of  taking a Republican ballot in New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation presidential primary and casting her vote for Paul.

Obama, Paul, Third Party, Millionaire's Tax Up in Polls

2012

• Obama Job Approval Edges Up, GOP Contest Remains Fluid (Pew Research) Obama continues to trail Romney by a wide margin among independent voters. Currently, 53% of independents favor Romney while just 41% support Obama. In matchups with other leading GOP candidates, Obama leads or runs about even.
• Ron Paul takes 2nd in an Iowa poll for 2nd time in 4 days (The State Column) Texas Congressman Ron Paul, a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, garnered 20.4 percent of the votes to secure 2nd place in a ISU/Gazette/KCRG poll of 1,256 registered Iowa Republican and independent voters.
• The GOP’s third-party nightmare scenario - A poll shows Ron Paul doing shockingly well as an independent candidate. What would make him take the plunge? (By Steve Kornacki, Salon) In reality, of course, this probably won’t happen — because he’s been shunned by the GOP, Roemer would likely be just as anonymous as an independent candidate. But Roemer’s third-party flirtation is a reminder of another potential spurned candidate revenge scenario that the GOP should probably be much more worried about: What if Ron Paul decides to run as an independent?
• Political Intelligence - Top Rank Beltway Pundit Will Offer 2012 Election Forecast at UCSB (By Jerry Roberts, Santa Barbara Independent) Independent Candidate: Gergen said that in Washington, there is “increasing talk about a third-party” challenge for president. While potential candidates like New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg or Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz may have the resources to mount an independent effort, the practical logistical requirements, coupled with the difficult challenge of Electoral College calculus, make such a bid unlikely.

MILLIONAIRE'S TAX
Poll: New Jerseyans support a Millionaire's Tax by a 2 to 1 margin - Poll finds they also strongly support Occupy Wall Street movement (BY TOM HESTER SR., NEWJERSEYNEWSROOM.COM) Voters support a tax hike on the rich by 64 to 28 percent, up from a high of 55 to 34 percent in a Feb. 10 poll, according to a Quinnipiac University poll made public Thursday. Current support is 82 to 13 percent among Democrats and 67 to 25 percent among independent voters, while Republicans are opposed 54 to 38 percent.

2012 Presidential Election: Ron Paul, The Economy, Obama, and Two-Party Politics

2012

• Overshadowed by the Cainwreck and Newtmentum, Ron Paul Climbs into Second Place (By Alex Altman, Time/ Swampland) In a Public Policy Polling survey this week, the Texas Congressman leads President Obama 48% to 39% among independent voters — the only Republican hopeful to earn that distinction.
• The Economy Isn’t Obama’s Only Challenge (By MATT BAI, NY Times/ The Caucus) Simply put, Mr. Obama now has to run for president as a conventional Democratic nominee. And this, at least in the modern political era, isn’t an especially easy thing to do. Mr. Obama did not have to deal with this in 2008, when a bunch of mitigating factors came together to make him something more than his party’s choice for the presidency. The war in Iraq, the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the market, the erupting fury at Washington’s impotence, the way Mr. Obama himself seemed to embody generational change and a renewal of the American story — all of this made it possible for him to run, essentially, as an independent candidate who rarely talked in terms of party.
• Two-party presidential race faces challenge (By Richard McGregor in Washington, Financial Times) Michael Toner, a former head of the Federal Election Commission, said third-party candidates have traditionally struggled to get over electoral laws and ballot-access rules to allow them to run. “A third-party candidate likely would need to be a major self-funder to be potentially viable, someone capable of contributing $100m-$200m of their own money into their campaign,” he said. “In short, someone like Michael Bloomberg.”

Opposing Crony Capitalism

2012

• Ron Paul's Real Electability: Stopping The Third Party Threat (Written by Thomas R. Eddlem, The New American) Electoral Fact #4: Ron Paul is the only Republican who can win voters who oppose "crony capitalism." While Ron Paul is not the only Republican who opposed the TARP and other bailouts (Michele Bachmann and Gary Johnson also opposed it), he's the only GOP candidate currently polling in double digits to have done so.
• Republicans Lose Way Misreading Bush History (By Ramesh Ponnuru, Bloomberg News) It seems much more likely that Republicans lost in 2006 because of the bleeding in Iraq, corruption in Washington, wage stagnation and the lack of any agenda by the party to do anything about these or other problems. Some of these issues had faded in importance by 2008, but in that year voters were also ready for a change after eight years of Republican control of the White House and, above all, dismayed by the economic crisis. In 2008, 60 percent of voters said the Republican presidential candidate, John McCain, wasn’t “in touch with people like them” -- and 79 percent of people who felt that way voted against him. That’s what defeated Republicans, not a perception that they were doctrinally impure.
• Is Smart Money Leading GOP Off Cliff Again? (By THOMAS SOWELL, Investors Business Daily) The smart money inside the Beltway says that the Republicans need to pick a moderate candidate who can appeal to independent voters, not just to the conservative voters who turn out to vote in Republican primaries. Those who think this way say that you have to "reach out" to Hispanics, the elderly and other constituencies. What is remarkable is how seldom the smart money folks look at what has actually been happening in presidential elections.

Ron Paul Top Choice for Independents Among Repub Hopefuls

2012
Cain's Lead in Iowa Narrows, Gingrich Surges in SC (By Caitlin Huey-Burns, RealClearPolitics) While Cain and Romney sit atop the ballot, Paul leads the field among independent voters with 27 percent of the support. Cain comes close with 26 percent, followed by Gingrich at 14 percent. Romney attracts just 7 percent of independents.

Chris Page: Ron Paul Should Run As Independent in 2012

2012
Ron Paul Should Be An Independent Candidate in 2012 (Christopher Page, PolicyMic - Next Generation News and Politics) Paul’s ability to appeal to voters outside the Republican base might also give him reason to run as independent. In recent debates, he criticized Ronald Reagan for selling weapons to Iran in exchange for hostages, the U.S. court system for being unfair to minorities, and a border fence for being un-American. Additionally, he supports legalizing marijuana, cutting defense, and protecting civil liberties. These positions, which are holding him back in the Republican primary, might actually help Paul in a general election campaign, especially given Obama’s adoption of the Bush foreign policy and opposition to legalizing marijuana. Given this appeal to voters outside the Republican base, it seems as though Paul is running in the wrong race.

How About A Third Party?

THIRD PARTY

• The pitfalls of a third-party candidacy (By Norman J. Ornstein and Thomas E. Mann, Washington Post Opinions) First, a third candidate can end up tilting the contest toward another candidate. In 2012, the nightmare scenario for us would be angry or demoralized independents and discouraged centrist Republicans gravitating toward the third candidate, enabling a far-right Republican nominee to prevail with a narrow electoral majority or with a plurality followed by a win in a deeply divided House. (Americans Elect, to its credit, has tried to draft electoral rules so that, in the plurality scenario, its electors would pledge to vote for the most centrist or reasonable major-party nominee.)
• Ron Paul: Why Do Underdog Candidates Run for President? (By Palash R. Ghosh, International Business Times) Probably the biggest challenge to third-party candidates is the electoral rules of the major parties or state electoral laws. The Bipartisan Commission on Presidential Debates, a committee of representatives from both parties tasked with organizing general election debates, has mostly ignored the inclusion of third-party candidates unless there is enough support from the media and the public for their inclusion. 

Road to Hell Is Paved With Intentions

2012

• Dems fret over Obama re-election (By Michael Barbaro, Jeff Zeleny and Monica Davey, New York Times in Sac Bee) To reassure nervous Democrats, the president's campaign aides are traveling the country with PowerPoint presentations that spell out Obama's path to re-election. Their pitch is that Obama's appeal has grown in traditionally Republican states like Arizona, where there are fast-growing Latino populations, and that Republicans have alienated independent voters with "extreme" positions on popular programs like Medicare.
• Huntsman struggles to keep candidacy alive - The Utah Republican was a long shot from the beginning: He's tried to be the voice of reason in a field that has been courting the angry voter. In New Hampshire, he makes a last stand. (By Paul West, Washington Bureau, LA Times) Huntsman, scion of a wealthy Salt Lake City family, has distanced himself from the rest of the GOP field in an effort to appeal to moderates and independents. But he seems to be hawking a product for which there is no market.
• Huntsman has $15 million to $66 million in assets (By Michael J. Bailey, Boston Globe) Considered a moderate, Huntsman has struggled to resonate with GOP voters. Focusing on the traditionally independent voters in the first primary state of New Hampshire, he has established one of the biggest campaign organizations ever there. Yet his poll numbers remain stuck in the single digits.
• Huntsman discloses his personal wealth (By T.W. Farnam, Washington Post/Post Politics) The Huntsman campaign has been mired in the low single digits in polling throughout the Republican nomination contest. Huntsman has run toward the ideological middle, hoping to appeal to independents who can vote in open primaries like those in New Hampshire.
• The election of 1992 could be harbinger of 2012 election (By Perry Mitchell, Special to the Coastal Point - DE) Any third-party candidate would face dynamic institutional barriers in winning the presidency. Duverger’s law from social sciences says that the plurality system existing in our congressional and presidential elections forces us into a two-party system, which is a huge barrier for a third-party candidate to overcome. The big challenge for our two-party system in 2012 will be how to accommodate the diverse views within its parties and nominate a centrist candidate. So far, the politics of 2010 and 2011 don’t show much promise that this will occur.
• Larry Sabato Politics Column Shows Plausible Scenario for an Electoral College Tie in 2012 (Ballot Access News) Even with only two candidates receiving electoral votes, a tie could occur and then the U.S. House would choose the president, with each state having one vote.
• Seemann Says: Ron Paul may be charismatic, but doesn’t understand science (By Chris Seemann, LSU Reveille) If the nation were striding up to an important impasse, could Paul be stubborn enough to stand his ground when Obama could not? Perhaps he would become frustrated enough to eschew pursuing another term for the purpose of making a stand. Whatever the case, the possibilities are intriguing.
• The Road to Hell Is Paved with 'Electable' Candidates (By Joseph Ashby, American Thinker) The theory reminds me of when my mother observed that boys, in order to impress girls, tend to do things that impress other boys.  Similarly, politicos and pundits try to impress independents by doing things that other partisans perceive as independent.  But just as running fast, jumping high, and lifting heavy things often fail to impress would-be sweethearts on the second-grade playground, so too is the Establishment's premise often incorrect.

Where Will Independents Swing in 2012?

2012

• Perry Skips S.C. Tea Party Forum, 5 Others Appear (by Julie Rose, NPR) Paul said Americans need a system of sound money, property rights, contracts, a judicial system and a defense department, and "not a heck of a lot else."
• Climate, evolution thorny issues for GOP hopefuls (Joe Garofoli,Carla Marinucci, San Francisco Chronicle) Nationally, 55 percent of Americans believe that global warming is a "serious personal threat," according to a Gallup survey in August. The bad news for Republican presidential candidates: The Public Policy Institute survey found that 62 percent of independent voters, who are the swing voters in the state, believe that, too.
• Democratic analysis: Jobs plan key (By: Celinda Lake and Daniel Gotoff and Kristin Pondel, Politico) While independent voters negligibly lean toward the GOP today: 29% to 26%, with a 45% plurality undecided, it is a far cry from the Republicans’ 19-point lead among independents in the 2010 election. Democrats can take back the House and should not miss this opportunity.
• Palin Draws Double the Size Crowd as Romney, Yet Remains Out of Race (By Sarah B. Boxer, National Journal) “Solutions come from you,” she told the crowd. “It is you who run our factories and own our small businesses, who fight our wars, who build our communities with a service heart, that is our country. … Hope is in you. It’s not that nebulous hopey-changey stuff we heard in 2008."

Pretending Ron Paul Doesn't Exist

RON PAUL

• Ron Paul a serious candidate concealed by media (By Sergio Goncalves, Daily Campus - U of CT) Moreover, Paul is electable. His unique, refreshing ideas excite many ordinary Americans who are disillusioned with the similarities between President Barack Obama and former President George W. Bush in such areas as civil liberties, foreign policy, and economic policy. More than any other Republican presidential candidate, Paul offers real change from the Bush-Obama status quo.
• Indecision 2012 - Corn Polled Edition - Ron Paul & the Top Tier (The Daily Show with Jon Stewart) Even when the media does remember Ron Paul, it's only to reassure themselves that there's no need to remember Ron Paul.

Pretending Ron Paul doesn't exist:

The Daily Show - Indecision 2012 - Corn Polled Edition - Ron Paul & the Top Tier
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