Hankster Weekend Roundup for Independent Voters - Nov 18

INDEPENDENT VOTERS
RNC report: Demographics, late voters sank Romney (Posted by Natalie Jennings, Washington Post/ Election 2012 Blog) Among the slides titled “What Happened?” are several devoted to turnout demographics. They note that the GOP made gains among independent voters but that Mitt Romney captured a very small share of young, black and Hispanic voters, while white voters made up a smaller portion of the electorate.

OPEN PRIMARIES

• California's New Electoral Reforms: The Fall Election (Eric McGhee and Daniel Krimm, Public Policy Institute of California) The top-two primary also created more competition. All but one of the 28 same-party races occurred in districts that were unlikely to have hosted competitive races in the past. Roughly one-third of those races were decided by less than 10 points.
• Viewpoints: California electoral reform fails its first test (By Steven Hill, Special to The Bee) The verdict is now in for the two political reforms pushed by former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and passed by voters. Both the top-two primary and independent redistricting commission have failed to live up to their billing.

2012 LOCAL ELECTION RESULTS

• Partisan bias in U.S. House elections (By Rob Richie, OPINION Washington Post) [Rob Richie is executive director of FairVote, a nonpartisan organization based in Takoma Park.] Fair voting has great political potential, grounded in major parties that see the value in their candidates winning seats across the nation. It also would probably boost the election of women and racial minorities.
• Below the Radar, a Good Year for Independent and Third-Party Senate Candidates (AllGov.com)  Lost among the bigger elections stories last week was the quieter news that third party candidates for the U.S. Senate did quite well in several states. The highest profile race won by an independent was in Maine, where former two-term governor Angus King easily won his state’s open Senate seat with nearly 53% of the vote.
• Registrar Blames Voters For Election Day Confusion (by Tikeyah Whittle, CT News Junkie) Urania Petit, the Working Families Party Registrar of Voters, said the biggest issue was the “lack of education about the political process.”

NEW YORK CITY POLITICS & BEYOND

• Likely Mayoral Hopeful Leaves Democratic Party (By DAVID W. CHEN, NY Times) Adolfo Carrión Jr., a former Bronx borough president and Obama administration official, is all but certain to jump into the 2013 mayor’s race, not as a Democrat, but rather as an independent seeking the Republican nomination, according to his spokesman and others.
  NOTE: Davidson Goldin http://www.goldinsolutions.com/more-about-us/about-the-founder/ 
• Wanted: GOP Mayoral Hopeful With Vague Conservative Impulses, Massive Personal Wealth a Plus (By Colin Campbell, NY Observer/Politicker/ The Elephant Not in the Room) Tom Allon, Adolpho Carrion and… Meanwhile, Democratic State Senator Malcolm Smith has been actively courting Republican officials in hopes of securing a spot on the ballot himself. “I’ll meet with anybody that’s interested in running on the line,” Bronx GOP Chair Jay Savino told us before Mr. Smith arrived at one such meeting in August.
• Blank voter registrations on the rise (Carol Thompson, Valley News Online, Fulton NY and Oswego County) McDonough is allegedly one of a cadre of Democrats, including current and former elected officials, who 38 months ago forged signatures and information in excuse boxes, voted 54 absentee ballot applications and then cast them in the Sept. 15, 2009, Working Families Party primary for Troy City Council.
• Third Party Groups Ponder Coalition, Some Want Bloomberg As Leader (By Elizabeth Flock, US News & World Report) But not everyone is on board with the New York City mayor, an independent who endorsed President Obama just before the election. "The mayor would certainly not represent our point of view," says Libertarian Party executive director Carla Howell, adding that Bloomberg doesn't fit the Libertarian Party's idea of limited government.

Independents Rising Chapter 2 review

In 1992 I was not a seasoned independent grassroots organizer, but I knew a thing or two about knocking doors and building a movement. I was 20 years old and serving as a missionary for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints. Yes, coincidentally that is the 'Mormon' church to which Mitt Romney belongs, and no, I won't be voting for him, but that is another story*.

My parents and their friends and community were basically conservative Republicans. I was young and naive. I believed what I had heard---I had little or no exposure to any contrasting political views and I was focused on theology. I would not say I was skeptical. I wouldn't say I believed all the rhetoric I was exposed to, but I did feel like there was a home team under constant anti-American attack. Perhaps I was a well-trained partisan. Even in my bitter-about-the-war years, I defended the Utah Legislature in conversation over their 2000 gerrymandered redistricting plan. Corruption in my mind was unique to liberals in far off places like Chicago and New York. I don't know entirely how my eyes were opened, but I'm glad they were and I'm certain Jackie Salit and Nancy Ross had something to do with it.

I recall just a few thoughts of my political thinking in 1992:

1. I remember thinking (perhaps due to Perot raising it to the fore) that debt was an omnipresent issue that the two parties were powerless to overcome.
2. Something, anything new (seeds of independence?), even Jesse Jackson might represent a "new face" approach that was needed. I wasn't an ardent supporter of that, just open to the idea. I was doing a lot of listening in the months and years running up to November 1992.
3. I remember thinking how unconscionable it was that my missionary companion from Oregon was a supporter of that 'pot smoker' Bill Clinton. Boy have I done a lot of growing up since then!

Nancy's introduction to this chapter by chapter project says "This is your story, our story--the story of the rise of independents". I have read a number of fiction and non-fiction thrillers with great anticipation of 'how it ends'. But it is surreal as I read through this narrative of independent history. I remember that past, our past...our present. It wasn't that long ago and it is how I arrived here. I know how this book ends before I've read it! The compelling draw is what will fill the pages of the subsequent sequels.

Chapter 2--Populism versus Centrism

Centrism is a meaningless abstraction. Those are my words not Jackie's. My local political conditions will partially illustrate this.

Candidates in Utah are screened through a caucus / convention system and if they score high enough, a primary election is avoided. This arrangement has become a practice that can be manipulated and misused. There are voices within the parties and even more voices without calling for an end to the caucus / convention / closed primary system. Party leaders of at least the Democratic and Republican parties predictably support the current arrangement. If centrism is vaguely defined as somewhere between left and right, is it squeezed out when the parties are in unison as in this example? Is left / center / right even relevant to an electoral equity issue?

Chapter 2 chronicles not ideological positions as problematic, but ideology generally as problematic and this often includes 'centrism' as the obstructive ideology of 'centrists'. This is the stark contrast and the chapter's namesake of populism versus centrism.

Populism is power to the people through pro-democratic institutions without a bias or preference as to what the voice of the people might say. Centrism is an advocacy of ideological noise not (a) pro-left or (b) pro-right, but (c) for bipartisan centrist middle. It is ideologically oriented. Populism is institution oriented.

*A story that I'd be happy to tell those who are interested. Drop me a line--http://www.facebook.com/RandyNMiller

Hankster News of the Day for Independents May 24

Today's Hankster picks for independent activists. Take a look at the latest attack on California's new Top Two Open Primary by Ernest Canning on Brad Blog, meander around the independent voter polls in Florida, and end up on Staten Island where challenger Michael Grimm has been tossed off the Independence Party line...

The title of the article contains the link to the original, followed by the author and publication, and then a snipit from the article. You can subscribe to this briefing by email at FeedBlitz or choose your favorite newsreader... 

• Will CA's New 'Cajun Primary' System Allow Minority GOP To Capture Congressional Seats? - CA-26 House race exemplifies anti-democratic potential of 2010's voter-approved 'Top Two' open primary system... (Guest blogged by Ernest A. Canning, Brad Blog) At the time it passed, then CA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) touted the Prop 14 "open primary" (also known as the "Cajun Primary") as a means to assure democratic accountability. The philandering actor-turned-governor said it would eliminate "the ideological traffic jam in Sacramento." But, according to Richard Derham, a Research Fellow of the Washington Policy Center, the "Cajun Primary" was developed in the South, at a time when it was dominated by a one-party system of segregationist Democrats. It was not meant, says Derham, to assure (small "d") democratic accountability, but rather to eliminate "the influence of Republican and Black voters".
• Quinnipiac poll: Mitt Romney leads in Florida (Posted by Rachel Weiner, Washington Post/ The Fix) Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney leads President Obama by six points among registered voters in Florida, according to a new Quinnipiac survey, a marked change from two months ago that, the poll suggests, could be linked in part to Obama’s recent statements in support of gay marriage.
• May 23, 2012 - Romney Up 6 Points In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Rubio Has Little Impact As GOP Running Mate (Quinnipiac University) Gov. Mitt Romney holds a 47 - 41 percent lead over President Barack Obama in Florida, where 63 percent of voters say the president's support of same-sex marriage will not affect their vote, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 25 - 11 percent of voters, including 23 - 9 percent among independent voters, say Obama's support of gay marriage makes them less likely to support his candidacy.
• Romney rocks the independent vote (By Christian Heinze, The Hill/ Ballot Box) In the seesaw battle between presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney and President Obama, there’s one surprising and rarely discussed constant — Romney is consistently beating the president among voters who consider themselves independent… According to Talking Points Memo’s poll tracker, there have been 14 major surveys measuring independents’ support over the past two months (excluding the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling and conservative-leaning Rasmussen Reports).
• Charlie King Next Top Dem To Move On (BY Ken Lovett, NY Daily News/ Daily Politics) The Democratic insider said King will leave after the national Democratic convention in September to seek private sector job opportunities.
• Paperwork miscue costs Staten Island Rep. Michael Grimm court battle over Independence Party line (Tom Wrobleski, Staten Island Advance) That means Independence voters will be deprived of voting for the candidate of their choice, Molinari said. "A phenomenon like that, which is so widespread, cries out for relief," said Molinari, an attorney. "You cannot disregard that."
• Sources: Judge Rules Against Grimm on Independence Party Appeal [Update] (By Colin Campbell, Politicker) Update: Mr. Murphy’s campaign confirms the result with the following comment from their spokesman Nathan Smith: “Hopefully, this ruling will end Michael Grimm’s sloppy and doomed effort to stay on the Independence line by wasting the court’s time and the taxpayers’ money.

Hankster News of the Day for Independents May 23

Today's Hankster picks for independent activists. The title of the article contains the link to the original, followed by the author and publication, and then a snipit from the article. You can subscribe to this briefing by email at FeedBlitz or choose your favorite newsreader... 

• The Texan (Semi-) Open Primary (By Shawn M. Griffiths, IVN) If all of the candidates in a race were on one ballot and the top two candidates, regardless of party affiliation, go on to the general election then it doesn’t disenfranchise any demographics. Republicans would vote for the Republican candidate they want. Democrats would vote for Democratic candidate they want, and independent voters would be able to vote for whoever they want.
• California's Ballot Experiment (Chris Weigant, Huffington Post) While the option will still exist to vote for a Libertarian or Green presidential candidate in November, they'll likely be the only representatives from their respective parties on the entire ballot, which, as I said, doesn't really sit right with me, because it smacks of second-class status for anyone not a member of the Democratic Party or Republican Party.
  Obama up 8 in Pennsylvania (Public Policy Polling) In a state where Democrats have a large registration advantage Obama wins if that holds true. It's a departure from some past polls that found him under even 70% of the Democratic vote, but conservative whites seem to be moving back toward him just as they did after supporting Hillary Clinton in the 2008 primary. Obama's also up 48-24 with Pennsylvania's small contingent of independent voters.
• Poll: Obama up big in swing-state Pennsylvania (By Jonathan Easley, The Hill) Independent voters have helped buoy Romney in recent national polls, but that’s not the case in Pennsylvania, where Obama leads 48 to 24. Obama also th edge among two of his most important constituent groups — women, with whom he leads 56 to 36, and young voters, with whom he leads 64 to 28.
• Pennylvania Poll: Obama Up 8, Doubles Romney With Independent Voters (TPM) A new poll of Pennsylvania from Democratic-leaning firm Public Policy Polling shows President Obama with an 8-point overall lead, 50 percent to 42 percent, built on large leads with women and independent voters.

Check out Independent Pennsylvanians!

The Ron Paul - Mitt Romney Connection

2012

• Ron Paul’s Long Game (By Jonathan Chait, New York Magazine/ Daily Intel) Paul’s game is to trade his supporters for a seat at the Republican table.
• For Romney and Paul, a strategic alliance between establishment and outsider (By Amy Gardner, Washington Post) The Romney-Paul alliance is more than a curious connection. It is a strategic partnership: for Paul, an opportunity to gain a seat at the table if his long-shot bid for the presidency fails; for Romney, a chance to gain support from one of the most vibrant subgroups within the Republican Party.

ROMNEY'$ unconditional guarantee!

Independent Voters and the 2012 Election: Tough Crowd!

The New York Times/ CBS News poll that came out Wednesday reveals a disenchantment by independents with Pres. Obama. No indication of any enchantment with the dwindling Repub possibilities... Record high percentage of Americans identify as independents...

• Poll Shows Obama’s Vulnerability With Swing Voters (By JEFF ZELENY and DALIA SUSSMAN, NY Times) President Obama opens his re-election bid facing significant obstacles among independent voters, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, with the critical piece of the electorate that cemented his victory four years ago open to denying him a second term.
• Obama hurting with swing voters, poll shows (By MJ LEE, Politico) Just 31 percent of independent voters indicated a favorable opinion of the president in a New York Times/CBS News poll out Thursday, compared to a 38 percent favorability rating among all voters.
• Obama losing luster with independent voters: poll (Reuters) + Judicial Watch on Washington Corruption poll: The vast majority of registered voters (68%) believe President Obama has either worsened (27%) or not improved (42%) government transparency as he promised during the 2008 presidential campaign. Only slightly more than half of registered Democrats believe Obama has improved transparency.
• Survey: Campaign finance reform could be major 2012 issue (by Aaron Puebla, Campaigns & Elections) According to a new survey from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, conducted for Democracy Corps, 62 percent of voters oppose the Court’s Citizens United ruling, which permitted unlimited campaign spending by corporations and unions. And more than three-quarters of voters say they would like to see candidates make campaign finance reform a “key” issue in 2012.
• A Libertarian Democrat Considers Mitt Romney - So much for the hope that Obama would move the party in a back-to-the-future Jeffersonian liberal direction. (Terry Michael, Reason.com) Then, within 10 months of taking office, he started a second war in Afghanistan. And he took three full years to withdraw troops from Iraq, negotiating until just weeks ago to keep troops there. As his premier domestic policy initiative, Obama rammed through a Democratic-controlled congress a welfare program for pharmaceutical companies, the centerpiece of which was—yes—a mandate forcing millions to buy coverage.
• Polls show Ron Paul emerging as key player in 2012 race (by Chris Hinyub, IVN) A new poll finds that a third-party bid by presidential hopeful Ron Paul would help re-elect president Obama, but not before taking away 9% of the President’s independent support and 17% of independent voters from Romney. In a separate poll, Paul was found to be competitive against Obama in a head-to-head contest as the GOP nominee.
• What If Voters Just Don’t Like Mitt Romney? (Benjy Sarlin & Kyle Leighton, TPM2012) While Republican voters are starting to come around to his candidacy, the rest of the country doesn’t seem too pleased with what they see. Romney’s lost six points on favorability among independent voters since Pew’s last poll in November, leading to a 13 point gap on the metric, 33 - 45.

• Record-High 40% of Americans Identify as Independents in '11 - More Americans identify as Democrats than as Republicans, 31% to 27% (by Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup) In recent decades, Gallup has observed a pattern of increased independent identification in the year prior to a presidential election, and a decline in the presidential election year. The only exception to that was in 1992, when independent identification increased from 1991, perhaps the result of President Bush's high approval ratings in 1991 and Ross Perot's independent presidential candidacy in 1992.
• Voters, redeclarers keep poll workers busy (Nashua Telegraph) She and June Caron managed to keep up with the stream of voters, many of whom admitted that if they didn’t redeclare as independents right away, they could very well forget to do it at all. “That group (independents) has been the majority of our voters so far...”
• Independent Voters on the Rise but Do They Matter? (Huma Khan, ABC News) Forty percent of voters identified themselves as politically independent in 2011, according to a new Gallup poll released today, the highest number recorded in the poll yet. The previous high for independents was 39 percent in 1995 and 2007. Democrats won both presidential races in the following years.
• Opinion: The center is back — and Obama needs to be there (By Mark Penn, The Hill) And the more centrist the Republican nominee, the more centrist the president needs to be in order to win in 2012. The huge ideological gap that would have made running against the Republicans an easy romp is disappearing as the exit polls show that even primary voters are choosing practicality over partisanship. In both Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney won with those voters who thought he had a better chance to beat President Obama in November.

Ron Paul concedes third place finish, Gingrich concedes fourth in Iowa

By Kelly Carson *  By Hannah Hess * IowaPolitics.com * Tuesday, January 3

DES MOINES — Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul conceded a third place finish in the Iowa Republican Caucuses late Tuesday night, vowing to press on in his 2012 presidential campaign.

With 89 percent of precincts reporting, Paul had 21 percent of the Republican caucus vote, according to reporting by the Republican Party of Iowa.

"This momentum is going to continue and this movement is going to continue," Paul vowed to a chanting crowd in his Ankeny campaign headquarters. "We will go on, we will raise the money," he said. "I have no doubt about the volunteers."

Shortly after, former Iowa frontrunner Newt Gingrich also conceded to fourth place with 13 percent of the vote after 89 percent of precincts reported. "There will be a great debate in the Republican Party before we are ready to have a great debate with (President) Barack Obama," Gingrich said, while promising to continue his campaign. He praised and congratulated Santorum for running a "positive" campaign and warned voters not to nominate Paul because of his "dangerous" foreign policy views.

Results from the Republican Party of Iowa with 89 percent of precincts reporting are:
Tied for 1. Romney and Santorum, 25 percent
UPDATE: Romney wins by 8 votes
3. Paul, 21 percent
4. Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, 13 percent
5. Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 10 percent
6. Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, 5 percent
7. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, 1 percent
8. Herman Cain, less than 1 percent

Pew Poll: What's Wrong with This (Presidential) Picture??

Polls are reporting "fast-breaking" mood changes among the American electorate and pundits relate our perception of the "down-to-earthness" of President Obama and Repub heir-apparent Mitt Romney to their "popularity."  Hmmm.... The fact that ordinary Americans have very little say in politics seems absent from this picture. What do you think?

"October is the worst time of the year for a cold!"

2012

• Poll: Mitt Romney trails President Obama by 2 percent (The State Column) The poll, conducted by Washington D.C. based Pew Research Center, revealed that Cain is neck and neck with Romney. The Pew poll gave Romney 23 percent of the votes and Cain 22 percent of the votes. However, the survey focused primarily on the head to head match ups between President Barack Obama and the eventual Republican presidential nominee. Obama holds a slight advantage over Romney at 49 to 47 percent, and a 49 to 42 percent advantage over Perry and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
• Obama Gets a GOP Gift for the 2012 Presidential Campaign (Eleanor Clift, The Daily Beast) Unlike Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, “one of the president’s problems is he has a detached and analytical way of talking—which Romney has, too,” Olsen said. Obama’s professorial loftiness and Romney’s buttoned-up boardroom style don’t endear them to these independent voters. The election could well turn on which man is better able to connect with these disaffected Americans.

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

• Gallup finds independents ideologically diverse
• Open primaries: what California needs
• Romney would win 2012 Repub primary -- IF they shut down open primaries and keep out independents....
• New York fusion voting gives weight to third parties
• Where does Pedro Espada get all that chutzpa??
• Stop the presses! Political consultant gives up on "change"!
• Albany partisan struggles inside the parties
• How Mayor Bloomberg improved NYC schools
• Personal Democracy Forum -- personal and bi-partisan

Independents' Day in New Hampshire

It's not just the sheer numbers of independents that makes them a pivotal group to watch in New Hampshire. Historically, they have often been decisive. (AP)

In a CNN/WMUR poll of New Hampshire voters released Sunday night, Senator Obama opened up a 10-point lead over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, in large part because of support from independents. (Christian Science Monitor)

Barack Obama is being joined on the campaign trail today in New Hampshire by Bill Bradley. (The Trail/Washington Post)

“Independents sitting in New Hampshire are saying, “Where can my vote matter most?' ” he says. “People are determined to politically leverage their vote by saying, ‘My vote has more “oomph” in this primary rather than that primary.' ” (WZZM 13)

On the Republican side -- John McCain is surging to the top of the pack with 34 percent support. Mitt Romney had been leading, but now stands at 30 percent. Iowa winner Mike Huckabee is in third, while Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul are tied for fourth. (Christian Broadcasting Network)

There are probably enough Independents to go around to both John McCain and Barack Obama. (Jim Geraghty - National Review) [Good point!!!]

Repub establishment vs. Independents in New Hampshire

The Repubs are already thinking about how to get rid of Mike Huckabee. This from Andrew Sullivan's "The GOP's "Jesse Jackson Moment" on The Daily Dish quoting from Mitt Romney's advisor Mark Falcoff "In spite of itself, the party might end up with him as its nominee, and with it, heading down the shortest road to disaster since the Goldwater debacle of 1964....."

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

• Alabama poll: 34 percent of likely voters say they are Democrats, 33 percent say they are Republicans, and 31 percent identify themselves as independents. (Tuscaloosa News)
• Romney's chances: Should he be found to have drifted too far to the right, he runs the risk of losing the GOP center and — if nominated — the growing bloc of independent voters, the majority of whom will be vital to win the 2008 general election. (Laconia Citizen)
• Can Bloomberg Fill JFK-Sized Hole in American Politics? (By Mort Kondracke, RealClearPolitics)
• Debates: Hofstra hosting presidential debate next fall-A third-party candidate would need to have a 15 percent support level in national polls at the time of the debate to be included, according to the commission's rules. (NY Newsday) and U.S. commission schedules 2008 presidential debates (Reuters - Washington Post)
• Political Realignment in 2008? (Zogby)

Conversations on Independence

Steve Soto on The Left Coaster thinks Mitt Romney may be positioning himself as an alternative for independent voters.... Nathan on MySpace thinks a bi-partisan ticket would appeal to independents.... RJ Eskow's piece Play-It-Safe 'Centrists' Are Weakening the Democratic Party is posted at his interesting blog Night Light... and Dick Arney at Time magazine's blog Swampland thinks independents will be voting their pocketbooks in '08.