Will Parties Understand Independents?

INDEPENDENT VOTERS

• The misunderstood independent (By Aaron Blake and Chris Cillizza, Washington Post/Post Politics/The Fix) In politics, it’s often tempting to put independents somewhere in the middle of Republicans and Democrats, politically. They identify somewhere in between the two, so they must be moderates, right? A new study from the Pew Research Center suggests that’s not so true anymore. Independents, in fact, are a fast-growing and increasingly diverse group that both parties are going to need to study and understand in the years ahead. ENTIRE REPORT ON PDF
• Dead-Cat Bounce Continues (Time-CNN/The Page) “But they have not changed their minds about his stewardship of the economy.  The number of people opposed to his reelection has dropped, although they seem to have moved to ‘undecided,’ rather than to the pro-Obama column,” Brown added.  “The good news for the president is that his largest improvement is among two key groups, men and independent voters.” Independent voters go from a negative 41 – 52 percent overall approval as of Sunday to a positive 47 – 41 percent today.  But only 36 percent of independent voters say today he deserves reelection, compared to 41 percent Sunday.
• America fears the revenge of Bin Laden’s followers (Gladkov Vladimir, The Voice of Russia) At first sight, the killing of Osama bin Laden should become a guarantee of Obama’s re-election as president. By successfully liquidating of the terrorist №1, Obama not only gained the support of the independent voters but even received the approval of many of his Republican opponents. But, as the latest polls show, the killing of bin Laden can’t solve all the problems facing the American president. More than half of Americans believe that the threat of terrorism against the USA can only grew now.

OPEN PRIMARIES
South Carolina Primary Debate Will Take Place Tonight, Despite The Lack Of A Compelling Reason To Do So (Jason Linkins, Huffington Post) The first scheduled debate of the campaign season, jointly sponsored by NBC News and Politico, was supposed to have been held on May 2. But back at the end of March, the debate organizers rather astutely observed that the presumed frontrunners weren't yet running and that the campaign season had not yet really begun. Presciently, they realized that these conditions were not likely to change during the month of April, so they postponed the event until mid-September, when they might be able to present a debate that voters would find credible. That's how tonight's debate, sponsored by Fox News and the South Carolina GOP became the first debate of the 2012 campaign… Instead, the field for the debate will be a bunch of lower-tier and lightly-regarded candidates, including Texas Representative Ron Paul, Godfathers Pizza CEO Herman Cain, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson. In that coterie, I count one candidate with an active and devoted base of support (Paul) and one candidate who could potentially obtain the approval of independent voters and elite conservative pundits (Pawlenty). The long-played out joke of this debate is that plenty of seats are available ... on the stage.

BALLOT ACCESS
Illinois Bill, Which Restricts Who can be an Independent Candidate, May Have Been Sidetracked (Ballot Access News)

2012 DEBATES

• First Thoughts: Ground Zero vs. Greenville (By Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg, msnbc/First Read) Who’s coming to the debate and who isn’t: Meanwhile, more than 700 miles away from New York City, five Republicans will share a debate stage tonight in Greenville, SC at 9:00 pm ET. Those five include just one top-tier candidate (Tim Pawlenty), two second-tier ones (Rick Santorum and Ron Paul), and two others (Herman Cain and Gary Johnson), who all registered a combined 11% in the Quinnipiac GOP trial heat. Those who aren’t attending: Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, and Newt Gingrich, as well as those mulling a bid (Daniels, Huntsman, Huckabee, and Trump). On split-screen days, it will always be difficult for the GOP field to compete with the president, especially before there’s an official Republican nominee.
• GOP's top candidates to skip S.C. debate (By John O'Connor, The State (Columbia, S.C.) - Sacramento Bee) Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty is the highest-profile GOP candidate to say he will take part in the debate. The S.C. GOP will announce the final lineup today, and it is expected to include Godfather’s Pizza founder Herman Cain, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.

Who Are the Independents - And Can They Reform America?

Can Independents Reform America? On February 12, 2011 hundreds of independent movement activists from 40 states gathered at a national conference in New York City to discuss that question. 

The 2011 National Conference of Independents was sponsored by IndependentVoting.org and hosted by its President, Jackie Salit who delivered this dynamic multi-media keynote address available now on DVD withbonus features including:

• Live edition of Talk/Talk: Fred Newman and Jackie Salit's uncensored, unconventional discussions of the political scene
• Meet the Independent Movementfeaturing: Omar Ali, Michael Lewis and Lenora Fulani
• Dispatches from the Movement: Reports by Wayne Griffin (SC), Joelle Riddle & Kathleen Curry (CO), Linda Curtis (TX), Jennifer Bullock (PA), Nicholas Johnson & Bryan Puertas (NY), and Ted Downing (AZ)
• Breaking into a Partisan System: Panel discussion with Theresa Amato, John Avlon, Lenora Fulani, Michael Hardy, Harry Kresky, Jim Mangia, Jackie Salit, Douglas Schoen, Cathy Stewart and Bradley Tusk.

INDEPENDENT VOTERS

• Did 2010 Create Real — Or Just Expedient — Change Among Elected Republicans? (By: Benjamin Hodge, Kansas City Citizen/The Monitor - Kansas Report) Independent voters – who are largely conservative, particularly on fiscal issues – will throw out either political party when it says one thing and does another
• Obama Bounce Larger Than It Seems (John Zogby, Forbes/Data Place)
• Obama’s Osama bounce is small, limited, and likely temporary (By: Conn Carroll, Washington Examiner) Independent voters go from a negative 41 – 52 percent overall approval as of Sunday to a positive 47 – 41 percent today. But only 36 percent of independent voters say today he deserves reelection, compared to 41 percent Sunday.

INDEPENDENT REDISTRICTING

• Keep redistricting process independent (BY JANICE THOMPSON, Portland Insight/My View) Oregon’s legislative boundary changes can’t put foxes in charge of henhouse
• Nebraska lawmakers wade into redistricting debate for Congressional, legislative boundaries (GRANT SCHULTE  Associated Press, Greenfield Reporter) The section of Sarpy County within the 2nd District holds nearly 22,000 registered Democrats, nearly 32,000 Republicans and about 17,000 independent voters. Douglas County has more than 125,000 registered Democrats, about 120,000 Republicans and nearly 65,787 independent voters.

SOUTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN DEBATE
Obama National Security Record Attacked at Republican Debate (By John McCormick and Julie Hirschfeld Davis, Bloomberg) “It is a wonderful time for this country now to reassess it, and get the troops out of Afghanistan, and end that war that hasn’t helped us and hasn’t helped anybody in the Middle East,” said Paul, 75, chairman of the House Financial Services subcommittee that oversees the Federal Reserve.

To Debate or Not to Debate: That isn't the question!

The question is, how can regular voters get in there???

Here's a fun post on techPresident yesterday offering some "debate interventions" including a MySpace/CPD collaboration (hmmm.....); Rate the Debates put up by Free Press, a media democracy group; Change the Debate, a site that allows video commentary; an invitation to an "old-fashioned IRC chat...."; and Hack the Debates, a twitter-powered #current something or other..... We should add RockTheDebate.org, which Jesse Ventura talked about recently at the Rally for the Republic event. Rock The Debate is a grassroots independent organization working for inclusion of independent candidates in the debates. RockTheDebate's co-founder Bob Sullentrup recently delivered a letter to the Committee on Presidential Debates (a company owned jointly by the Democratic and Republican parties to control the presidential debates) detailing demands to change the criteria by which candidates are authorized to be included in a national debate.

Debate Prep: How to Join In the Fun By Micah L. Sifry, 09/25/2008: We're not sure if there's going to be a presidential debate tomorrow night or not, but either way it can't hurt to highlight some of the ways viewers can participate in advance or during the actual event...

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

• Alabama poll: 34 percent of likely voters say they are Democrats, 33 percent say they are Republicans, and 31 percent identify themselves as independents. (Tuscaloosa News)
• Romney's chances: Should he be found to have drifted too far to the right, he runs the risk of losing the GOP center and — if nominated — the growing bloc of independent voters, the majority of whom will be vital to win the 2008 general election. (Laconia Citizen)
• Can Bloomberg Fill JFK-Sized Hole in American Politics? (By Mort Kondracke, RealClearPolitics)
• Debates: Hofstra hosting presidential debate next fall-A third-party candidate would need to have a 15 percent support level in national polls at the time of the debate to be included, according to the commission's rules. (NY Newsday) and U.S. commission schedules 2008 presidential debates (Reuters - Washington Post)
• Political Realignment in 2008? (Zogby)

Conversations on Democracy

• On the Obama campaign for the White House: Michael Roberts' Dilemma...
• Fred Newman has some advice for Obama in Talk/Talk...
• Republicans have failed the Right (The Economist)
• Stuart Rothenberg has had enough debate -- Gravel, Kucinich, Paul, Tancredo? Let's move on!.....
• And journalist/filmmaker John Pilger has an excellent piece on Clintonism in Dissident Voice: "What Clinton and Blair have most in common is that they are the most violent leaders of their countries in the modern era; that includes Bush. Consider Clinton’s true record...." (more)

Conversations on Independence

So, how are independent voters doing? MRF Buckley at NewsPopping: Internet Journalism Blog had this astute analysis of the debates and the candidates. LiberalArtsGuy at An Ordinary Person and Politics in America has developed a very interesting schmooze strategy for meeting other independents, and while you're there, check out Fence Sitter (Not!). And where can a passionate anti-war activist get a break? On CNN? No, baby -- On Swiftspeech! This is a great blog - not to be missed. And you'll want to read Jackie Salit's statement posted here on The Independent View: "Contrary to the statement by Senator Clinton, Iraq is not George Bush’s war. It is Washington’s war—signed, sealed and delivered by both political parties."

I'd say independents are doing quite well. What do you think?

Independent Voters: JOIN THE NEXT DEBATE WATCH

Sunday, June 3 – Democratic Party Debate
Tuesday, June 5 – Republican Party Debate
Sponsored by CNN and WMUR, New Hampshire
Aired nationally on CNN from 7:00 to 9:00 pm
St. Anselm College, New Hampshire

This note from the CUIP:
Thank you for participating in Debate Watch! It was very successful. 200 independents from 30 states filled out surveys after watching the debates broadcast from South Carolina on May 3rd (Democratic Party) and from California on May 10th (Republican Party).

Independents are getting a look at the presidential terrain, and what a terrain! Eight Democrats and ten Republicans participated in the debates in South Carolina– and at least five more major players are considering entering the race. Independents who participated in Debate Watch did not feel there was any clear winner in either debate, nor did the political pundits who commented afterwards.

It’s an unpredictable campaign season. As one McCain staffer noted recently, “the only thing certain about this presidential election is the level of uncertainty!” With the presidential campaign beginning 18 months earlier than previous races, many states are now moving or threatening to move their primary dates to earlier in the primary season, meaning almost half the states’ primaries will be over by February 5! Candidates and their campaign teams are scrambling to figure out their next moves. Moreover, nobody can safely predict who the ultimate candidates will be, including if there will be a significant (read: wealthy and well-known) independent to enter the race.

All this instability can be a good thing for independents. We don’t need to pick a candidate or a winner in the debates. Rather, we’re insisting that the candidates talk to and include independents and address our concerns about partisanship and corruption and their negative effects on the political process.

99% of Debate Watch respondents noted that neither the Democratic or Republican candidates acknowledged or spoke directly to independent voters. Indeed, only two Republicans – and no Democrats – even mentioned the word “independent.” In addition, 98% of independents surveyed believe that political reform and partisanship are important issues to be addressed, and that the candidates failed to do so.

Not one independent who watched the Republican debate felt that Senator John McCain did anything in the debate to regain the support he lost from independent voters because of his position on the war.

Independents’ advice to the candidates about how to speak more effectively to independent voters? Here’s a few highlights:

Acknowledge our existence and our numbers. Admit that most Americans are now independent voters, reflecting our dissatisfaction with partisanship;
Speak to fixing our broken election system;
Admit that the parties are corrupt – they continue to stack the deck against independents.

On the media front:

Sarah Lyons, Communications Director of CUIP, has been speaking with the media about Debate Watch – and some media outlets are listening.

In South Carolina a local daily newspaper, The Greenville News, invited chair of the South Carolina Independence Party Wayne Griffin to view the Democratic Party debate in their offices to get his reactions to the debate in “real time.”

Morris News Service, which owns 12 weekly newspapers in 6 states, spoke with Helen Blocker-Adams after the debate to get her “Debate Watch” reactions. See the story http://chronicle.augusta.com/stories/042707/met_126289.html

In Iowa, WHO-TV invited independent Larry Reinsch to submit his responses to the debates on the state’s Iowa caucus website - www.iowavotes2008.org

Now the focus of the presidential campaign is moving to New Hampshire, as Democratic and Republican Party debates are set for June 3 and June 5, respectively. The chair of the New Hampshire Committee for an Independent Voice, Betty Ward, is planning a Debate Watch party at a local bar. The debates will be broadcast by CNN from Manchester, New Hampshire. We’ll send everyone a new survey towards the end of this month, and we’ll keep you posted!

Plan your next Debate Watch for June 3!
Contact Nancy Ross or Fran Miller at 212-609-2800

South Carolina: deal makers/breakers?

South Carolina has taken a prominent spot in the upcoming Presidential election - the Dems officially opting for an earlier (Jan. 29th) primary. This is important to the weight of black voters (Blacks made up 49 percent of the 280,000 voters who participated in the Feb. 3 primary in 2004, according to the Washington Times today...) and to the candidacy of Barack Obama.

The state hosts this year's first national presidential debate April 26.

2008: No sides presidential debate

2008 Presidential Debates May Go Online
By BetaNews Staff, BetaNews
January 12, 2007, 12:38 PM
Political blog The Huffington Post wants to try something in 2008 that's never been done before: an online presidential debate. Run by conservative-turned-liberal political commentator Arianna Huffington, the site has quickly grown into one of the most widely read political blogs on the web. If it becomes a reality, it could solidify the Internet and the so-called 'netroots' as a serious force in politics.
Even though the site focuses more on liberal-leaning commentary, Huffington wants both sides to participate. Thus, both sides have been contacted about the prospect of such an event. Invitations have been sent out to likely candidates, although none have formally confirmed they would participate in any online debate.

That's good, I guess. But at a time when many voters are calling for a centrist politic, and many independents refuse to be pidgeonholed into left/center/right categories but want to go beyond the partisan divide, I see a snag. "Both sides"? How about many sides, or no sides, or whoever who has something to say sides?
NH