Obama, Clinton, Edwards, McCain, Giuliani and the beginning of the end

Hey, was it something we said??? One minute folks are voting in the Florida primary, the next minute candidates are dropping out. Rudy Giuliani never seemed to have actually been running, at least for President. (As someone on CNN said, "He forgot to campaign!") John Edwards it seems to me has nothing to lose by staying in and yet he quit. They talk about "voter fatigue", but in this highly unusual campaign, voters seem to have more staying power than the candidates....

More observations of the moment by Ariel Alexovich "Blogtalk: Flordia Shuffles the Deck" on New York Times The Caucus, and below from Salit and Newman for Talk/Talk:


Salit: Peggy Noonan observed in the Wall Street Journal that she was initially concerned that Obama might be holding back from fully engaging the Clintons in a fight because he was worried that he might destroy the Democratic Party. But, she said, what's actually happening is that Bill Clinton is the one who's destroying the party, just as George Bush is destroying the Republican Party.
Newman: Obama's not holding back. The speech he gave last night in South Carolina was all about the Clintons. That's not holding back. If you're holding back, you're not giving that speech. Obama recognizes - and I think correctly - that that's the fight they have to have to be in the game. If you're going up against the establishment elements of your own party, you've got to go up against them full force. You can't hold back. I don't think he's going to unnecessarily provoke them. But, he's got to go up against them because that's who he's running against. He has to find the right tone: Hillary, I don't want to berate you. I know you're in line to become the first woman president. But, you represent a way of doing politics, which produces a set of decisions which come out of that way of doing politics, which is not where the American people are at. You're old. Your time has passed.... (Talk/Talk with Fred Newman and Jacqueline Salit, "No Holding Back")

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

FLORIDA

• Robust turnout suggests GOP has no lock on state (Herald Tribune - Sarasota) But the key challenge for the Democratic nominee is winning over independents. One in five voters in Florida is not affiliated with either party, meaning they will form a substantial swing vote.
• Fla. win cements McCain's front-runner status (By Jill Lawrence, USA TODAY) Among voters who were registered GOP but called themselves independents, McCain won 2-1.
• For McCain, Momentum That May Be Hard to Stop (By Dan Balz, Washington Post) While not the darling of the conservative establishment, McCain is seen by many rank-and-file Republicans, and some party leaders, as their most electable nominee. They also consider him the one with the greatest opportunity to reach beyond the party's base to draw independent voters, who have swung toward Democrats in the past two years.
• Large Turnout But Few Problems (WFTV Orlando) The biggest problem, Browning said, was voters who had not declared a party affiliation showing up expecting to vote for a presidential candidate and being told they could not.
• Sarasota County voters head to the polls (WWSB ABC 7 Sarasota) Another problem: irate Independent voters. "There have been several people come out disgusted. They were all registered Independents. They came here thinking they would be able to vote and it's voter confusion," said voter Ken Wingate.
• Democrats shut out of Florida (By Mark Potter, NBC Field Notes) For local Democrats there was the sickening realization they may have just shot themselves in the foot with many of the state's famously independent voters come November.
• Leon doesn't follow state voting trends (By Julian Pecquet, Tallahassee Democrat) Carlos Verney, a member of the College Democrats. He called for the state to adopt open primaries.

MISSOURI

• Hulshof joins governor race (By Virginia Young, St. Louis Post Dispatch) Hulshof projects himself as an outsider; his district is a "haven for independents" ...

ARIZONA

• Independent voters: A force that should be recognized (Arizona Republic)

CALIFORNIA

• California Independents Like Obama, But Will Have Trouble Voting For Him (Max Follmer, The Huffington Post) "Independent voters are making an unprecedented impact on primary elections across America this year. But in California, if you don't know to ask for a Democratic ballot, you don't get to vote for President," said Rick Jacobs, founder of the Courage Campaign, a progressive grass-roots organization in California that has launched an effort to inform independent voters about voting in the presidential primary.
• Calif. Independents Barred from GOP Primary (by Ina Jaffe, NPR)
• Commentary: You May Have Your Ballot, But You May Not Be Able to Vote (By Constance M. Piesinger, Berkeley Daily Planet)

SUPER TUESDAY

• Obama Team Sets Sights On Post-Super Tuesday Prizes (Huffington Post ) ..among the 22 Super Tuesday states are 16 "where decent attendance from undeclared and independent voters" would favor Obama. This is the conventional wisdom. This is why that massive phone bank for Obama last Saturday in the California field offices (220,000 calls made) targeted those voters.
• Useful Brennan Center Article about Deadlines for Independent Voters to Re-Register, if they Want to Vote in Presidential Primaries (Ballot Access News) SEE REFERENCED ARTICLE BELOW
• Shhh, Or Independents Might Actually Get to Vote (By Renée Paradis, Brennan Center blog)
• INDEPENDENTS GO HOME-Open Primaries Are Killing Democracy (Ted Rall, Yahoo News) NOTE: Ted thinks polarization is good for democracy...... he's a real fighter, but he's on the wrong side of the issue...

Florida: Republicans, Democrats and Independents

CNN has called Florida for Hillary Clinton who has 48% with 24% of the precincts reporting. John Edwards has 15% and Dennis Kucinich (CNN posted Mike Gravel's name instead of Kucinich's for a little while....) has over 5,000 votes, about 2%. Of course this is where the DNC put the state Democratic Party into receivership for changing the date of the primary.... So neither Obama nor the Clintons campaigned there. Obama is winning the black vote with 70%+, while the Clintons are winning the non-black vote, according the the latest exit polls.

The more interesting action is the Repub primary where John McCain and Mitt Romney are neck and neck. Giuliani is running a "John Edwards third" -- about 15%. So apparently America's Mayor is not Florida's first choice for America's President..... Giuliani is expected to withdraw if he doesn't do well tonight, having put all his eggs in the Sunshine basket. Ron Paul has about 3% -- over 31,000 votes so far.

There are no stats for independents because independents cannot vote in the primaries in Florida. Independents make up about 22% of the electorate in Florida, and are disenfranchised by the rules.

Independents should be able to vote in primaries in all the states. Independent voters should have all the rights of citizenship in our democracy, including being able to vote in public elections.

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

• Political independents undermine primaries (Mercury News) NOTE: Or, who needs democracy when you have partisan control?
• Candidates face closed primary in Florida-Florida's vote is the first of this race in which independents have no say (Herald Tribune)
• Fate of Idaho's Republican primary still unresolved (Times-News Magic Valley)
• Clinton, Obama go for the jugulars (each other's) (LA Times Top of the Ticket blog) Many Democratic leaders might have been left wondering how many independent voters this kind of squabbling -- the mention of Wal-Mart, the reference to Rezko -- might drive away from the eventual nominee later this year. NOTE: I have to agree with this. Better to address the American people with your message....
• Oklahoma Independents can’t vote in primaries (Alva Review/Courier OK )
• California Party Lines Changing (KFSN)
• Dems eye boost from Calif. primary rules (UPI.com)
• Independence Party considering changes to its rules (Minnesota Public Radio)
• Clinton-Obama contest divides S.C. by race, gender, age (Star-Ledger)
• POLL: NY DUO IN FOR A SHOCK (NY POST) NY African American voters going for Obama
• Siena Poll: Bad News For Rudy In NY, Good News For Spitzer (Elizabeth Benjamin, NY Daily News Daily Politics blog)
• A black president or woman president? A happy dilemma for some (YAKIMA HERALD-REPUBLIC)

Independents' Day in New Hampshire

It's not just the sheer numbers of independents that makes them a pivotal group to watch in New Hampshire. Historically, they have often been decisive. (AP)

In a CNN/WMUR poll of New Hampshire voters released Sunday night, Senator Obama opened up a 10-point lead over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, in large part because of support from independents. (Christian Science Monitor)

Barack Obama is being joined on the campaign trail today in New Hampshire by Bill Bradley. (The Trail/Washington Post)

“Independents sitting in New Hampshire are saying, “Where can my vote matter most?' ” he says. “People are determined to politically leverage their vote by saying, ‘My vote has more “oomph” in this primary rather than that primary.' ” (WZZM 13)

On the Republican side -- John McCain is surging to the top of the pack with 34 percent support. Mitt Romney had been leading, but now stands at 30 percent. Iowa winner Mike Huckabee is in third, while Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul are tied for fourth. (Christian Broadcasting Network)

There are probably enough Independents to go around to both John McCain and Barack Obama. (Jim Geraghty - National Review) [Good point!!!]

Conversations on Conversations about Politics

Just as The Hankster readership is on vacation, so are we! Which allow the additional posts....

Today's Talk/Talk with Fred Newman and Jacqueline Salit (which comes out usually on Tuesdays and you can subscribe like I do to the email by signing up on the Analysis tab at independentvoting.org on the upper right corner... I've also linked Talk/Talk to The Hankster blog roll) is entitled "It's Not About Me".

I love this weekly column, not only because Newman and Salit have some very cutting-edge things to say about the whole two-party system thing that rules American politics, but also I just really appreciate the free-wheeling and intimate dialogue. Here are two people who have a lot to say about politics in America. Newman, somewhat of an "elder" in progressive independent politics in the US, having spent the past 40 years trying to create some alternatives to the current political alignment, and Salit, who has built an activist base of hundreds of top-notch indepenendent activists across the country, speak their hearts and minds.

Some of their dialogue from last Sunday:
Newman: ...But the issue is not me. The issue is the American people. If [Hillary] can make that stick, she wins the argument. But can she pull that off when a lot of other people are persisting in saying 'The issue is Hillary, the issue is Hillary?' I don't know. That's the opening for her. But, it's also a trap for her if she doesn't succeed in going through that opening.

Salit: And how does Obama handle this?

Newman: He could say: The issue isn't Hillary Clinton. The issue is the failure of Washington to impact positively on the people of America. Now, that's a little hard for him to say since he's participating in the process of making Hillary Clinton the issue.

Salit: I was struck by Gwen Ifill on the "Meet the Press" panel when she summarized the Democratic race as being about "what do you think about Hillary?" When she first said that, I thought 'What happened to the issues?' But then I realized it was a fairly accurate description. I'm not looking to create an evenly balanced template here, but to what extent do you think that's operative for Rudy Giuliani? .......

Newman: But it is about issues, because [Giuliani's] personal projection translates into a position on national security. Those are the Republican issues. In fact, the Democrats, as some commentators now say, don't even talk about these issues very much anymore. Today's Daily News featured an Op Ed arguing that the Democrats have stopped talking about security and about terrorism. Meanwhile, Giuliani can only talk about that. He doesn't talk about any other issues. He says: I stop crime. I react to terrorism. That's my record. That's what I do. Those are the issues that Americans really care about. Now, that's a pretty big gamble because it's not at all clear that those are the issues that a majority of Americans care most about. The huge drop in Bush's popularity would seem to suggest otherwise.

Salit: Then, what's driving the race on the Democratic side? On "Meet the Press" E.J. Dionne talked about the trade issue. Russert played a clip of the exchange between himself and Hillary on the NAFTA question and his effort to get her to admit that NAFTA was a mistake.

Newman: Wait a second. They don't talk about the trade issue. What you're reporting on is the talk about who was right on NAFTA and who was wrong on NAFTA. That has nothing to do with the trade issue. The trade issue is a totally separate matter. The issue that they're discussing was who was right and who was wrong. .....

Salit: I see what you're saying. But, putting the campaigns aside for the moment, Dionne gave a fairly detailed description of the split within the Democratic Party on the trade question, the split between the old liberal union-based coalition which is anti-NAFTA and anti-free trade and the more middle class, white collar, Information Age base which is pro-free trade.

Newman: ....Wait a second. They don't talk about the trade issue. What you're reporting on is the talk about who was right on NAFTA and who was wrong on NAFTA. That has nothing to do with the trade issue.....

Eventually, the people will vote.... We will vote in an election where we're not happy with the choices. We'll do the best we can.....

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

• Ohio's Lake County independent-minded voters have history of picking the president (Cleveland Plain Dealer)
• William Weld pitches for Unity 08 (NY Sun)
• Pat Robertson's endorsement of Rudy Giuliani heads off Christian Right independent run for president (Lawrence Kudlow-Washington Times)
• Ron Paul supporters independent of the campaign raised $4 million online and $200,000 over the phone in one day (Star Telegram)
• New York: The view from the pundit's desk "Obama dangerous because he threatens Clinton's grip on the black vote" (Buffalo News editorial) The view from the ground "The growth of the Independence Pary and its role in cultivating political mobility among black and other traditional Democratic constituencies is key." (Jacqueline Salit's The Black and Independent Alliance, 2006)
• Ron Walters: The challenge facing black candidates like Sen. Obama who have national ambitions "isn't whether they're black enough. It's whether they're white enough." (Jonathan Kaplan-Wall Street Journal)
• Obama goes for the capillaries-Barack Obama delivers a rousing speech in Iowa on Saturday night, all but calling out Hillary Clinton, and then gets weak-kneed on Sunday morning. (By Walter Shapiro-Salon)
• Obama Shines in Iowa (The New Republic blog)

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

• Clinton, Giuliani Behave Like It's Already Fall '08--can you take a year of this? (RealClearPolitics)
• New Hampshire/Michigan: It's not a 2007 primary yet (Concord Monitor)
• New Hampshire candidate forum on global warming sparsely attended (Concord Monitor)
• Michelle Obama in Iowa (The Trail, Washington Post)
• Alabama: Redistricting fight is likely coming up (Thomasville Times)
• Ohio: Attorney files suit in ballot exclusion-Longtime Republican says she is independent (Akron Beacon Journal)
• New Jersey: Libertarian candidates qualify for public funding-Campaign manager for D-14 Assembly hopefuls says they're 'in it to win' (East Brunswick Sentinel)
• Minnesota: World has changed -- so why not change how we pick a president? (Rochester Post Bulletin)

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

• New consultancy for independent candidates: D'Amore, Hillsman, Oliver & Barkley now open for business (PR Newswire)
• RUDY STIRS UP MOST PASSION AMONG VOTERS-Indies like Obama (NY Post)

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

• Third Party Run From The Right? (Horserace 08 - CBS News blog)
• Beating the Odds - John McCain to win New Hampshire independents? (Truthdig)
• RoboClinton calling independents in Illinois (Clout Street - Chicago Tribune blog)
• Zogby Poll: Clinton winning independents who plan to vote in the New Hampshire Dem Primary (BBSNews)
• Obama at $19 million for the primaries (The Caucus - New York Times blog)
• Rudy: 3rd party not the answer (Newsday)
• Huckabee Gets Nod of Clinton (NY Sun)
• Citizen Georges-After years of corporate success and civic involvement, John Georges is spending millions in his bid to become Louisiana’s next governor-as an independent (The Independent Weekly)

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

Fulani Is Calling For Hillary Vs. Obama (New York Sun)
Giuliani moves in to The Valley (LA Daily News)
Why America's Mayor will not be the GOP's candidate (by Doug Schoen - NY Daily News)
Obama superior choice (Baltimore Community Times)
Schwarzenegger veto of Iraq ballot measure (Sac Bee)
John Georges' independent run for Louisiana Gov (LSU Daily Reveille)
Independent Frohnmayer to run against Gordon Smith in Oregon (CQ Politics) (Oregon Statesman Journal) (The Oregonian)

What's New on The Hankster

USA Today blog "Steve Forbes to tout Giuliani on Blog" TalkRadio today, and WSJ "Washwire" "Blogger's Take on Rove's Resignation" are key ones.... Now on The Hankster sidebar.... Check them out!

Are you an independent voter with attitude? Let us know! If you have a great independent blog or you know of some great independent news, email The Hankster! You're in!

Talk/Talk with Fred Newman and Jackie Salit-- not new, but new on The Hankster sidebar. This week FIGHTS, COMEBACKS and ASTERISKS -- an independent take on the Sunday talk shows is now available at the click on Talk/Talk ....

And by the way, did you see this post by Glenn Greenwald on Salon.com....? "Large numbers of Americans believe that we should stop acting as the world ruler -- the new Pew Poll found "widespread feelings that the US is playing the role of the hegemonic or dominant world leader more than it should be" -- but such views are rigidly excluded from the bi-partisan Foreign Policy Community and thus excluded from what we are permitted in the mainstream to debate....."

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

`Anxious Xers,' `Angry Independents' (Bloomberg.com)
It's Richardson and Thompson among indies in Iowa (Taegan Goddard's Political Wire)
Richardson Watch (Free New Mexican)
Rudy's rude (Slate)
McCain can't win for losing... (The Citizen of Laconia NH)
YouTube luring more Repubs (The Trail - Washington Post blog)
"Presidential moment" or "Bush-Cheney Lite"? (By Dick Morris-RealClearPolitics)
Do blacks believe Obama can make it? (Francis L. Holland Blog)
Obama stands by diplomacy view in Dallas (Gromer Jeffers-Dallas Morning News)
Obama tied with Clinton in New Hampshire (The Swamp - Chicago Tribune)
Clinton cautious, Obama unsettling (Spokesman Review)
50 years ago today: A McCarthy-free morning in America (Capital Times - Madison)

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

• Who won the YouTube/CNN debate last night? The voters! Substance overcomes novelty (Chicago Tribune) * Debate puts voters onstage (Myrtle Beach Online) * YouTube steals the Dem debate (San Francisco Chronicle) * YouTube Questions Take a Different Tack (The Associated Press-Washington Post) * Format upstages candidates (The State - Charleston) * Obama, Clinton clash in YouTube debate (Reuters)

• Harri Poll: Americans would consider an Independent for President (Digital50.com) * Bloomberg Boosts Democrats' Fortunes In Florida, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; McCain Fades In Republican Primary Race (Quinnipiac from The Moderate Voice) * Poll: Bloomberg bid could help Clinton in Florida (Miami Herald) * Giuliani holds lead in Florida, poll finds (Tallahassee Democrat)

• It's Independent Time. Do you know where your hot dog stand is? (Ballot Access News)

Hankster Poll: Independent Voter Preferences, July 2007

Thanks to everyone who voted on The Hankster Poll! Here are the results. Watch for the NEW Hankster Poll -- everyone wants to know....

As an independent voter, I would like to see:

• Barack Obama reach out to independents as a partner to change American politics - 15%
• Chuck Hagel run as an independent - 8%
• Michael Bloomberg run as an independent - 13%
• An independent ticket with prominent candidates willing to take on the failure of US domestic and foreign policy - 13%
• Rudy Giuliani recognize independent voters as an agent for change - 7%
  Independents talking to independents - 16%
• More philosophical dialogue about America's role in international politics - 9%
• All of the above. Independents can have an impact everywhere - 15%
• None of the above--it's hopeless - 1%
• What can I do? - 2%

(This poll has a margin of error of 1%)
Methodology: Systematically publish a poll of Hankster viewers. (Everyone's a Pollster these days, Madison.)

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

• The wrong game plan, Giuliani's terror strategy ignores the fact that offensive tactic failing-critical independent voters are against the war (Newsday)
• Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and the Black Vote (ABC News)
• Obama keys on family, middle class-"conservative message would appeal to independents"-WRONG ANALYSIS OF INDEPENDENT VOTERS? (Spartenburg Herald Journal's GoUpstate-South Carolina)
• Innocent visit-Michael Bloomberg came close to taking himself out of consideration for a 2008 run as an independent candidate on Friday (Nashua Telegraph)
• Mapping the Causes of Corruption (New York Times)
• California: Redistricting within reach (Sac Bee)
• Michigan lawmakers propose new way for drawing district lines (South Bend Tribune)
• Virginia: Sometimes, a free pass at the polls is good-Locally, two long-serving independent delegates face opposition, all other party delegates running unopposed (Lynchburg News & Advance)
• Florida local political parties cater to surfers, poor people and even some new Whigs (NW Florida Daily News) Okaloosa independent voters by party and race

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

New York Times through the Congressional Quarterly reports that Oregon Dems see Repub Gordon Smith "vulnerable" on his left from independents...

Tony Blankley sees a third party freak show in Dem primary (Philadelphia Daily News)...

Mother Jones wonders if the Dems should be wary of Mike Gravel a la Ralph Nader...

Andrew Sullivan talks about Christianism...

Independent Voters Surveyed on Presidential Campaign Views

For Immediate Release: May 7, 2007
Contact: Sarah Lyons
212-962-1824

Independent Voters Surveyed on Presidential Campaign Views;
Highest Favorability Ranking to Barack Obama;
Giuliani Leads Among Republican Contenders;
Indies Back “Open Primaries”

New York, NY— Results of polling done by the CUIP, an organizing center for independent voters with networks in 35 states, show Barack Obama receiving the highest favorability rating among independent voters. Forty-five percent of independents have a favorable view of Obama, followed by Hillary Clinton at 39% and John Edwards at 38%. Rudy Giuliani is viewed favorably by 28% and John McCain by 24%.
The results echo the latest Rassmussen Report national survey which also found Obama leading among independents receiving 38%, followed by Clinton at 19% and Edwards at 18%. (Additionally, 10% of independents selected “some other candidate,” 9% were not sure, 4% picked Richardson, and Biden received 2%.)
CUIP has so far polled 800 independents from 28 states in an ongoing survey dubbed “Indie2Indie” in which independents volunteer to call voter lists of fellow independents to elicit their views on the presidential campaign. CUIP’s Independent-to-Independent polling began in March and will continue throughout the election season.
“Independent voters are looking to see which candidates are reaching out beyond their own party’s base to acknowledge and include them,” said Jacqueline Salit, the president of CUIP. “Everyone agrees independents will decide the election in 2008. We’re helping to inform and shape their decision-making process.”
Of the independent respondents to CUIP’s poll, 63% are white, 26% are African-American, 6% are Latino or Hispanic, 2% are Asian, 1% are Native American, and 2% identified as “other.”
Forty percent of respondents are between 41-56 years old, 37% are 56 and over, 5% are 18-25 years old and 18% were 26-40 years of age.
While only half of the states currently hold open primaries allowing independents to vote in the either major party primary, 84% of independents surveyed say they would like to see open primaries in all states.
# # #

Giuliani: Credible path to the nomination?

Dan Balz has an interesting commentary in Sunday's Washington Post , "Giuliani Has No Real Chance With GOP Voters . . . or Does He?", about the viability of the Repubs picking Rudy Giuliani as their nominee.

"...The former mayor's campaign team believes it has found a credible path to the nomination. Its foundation is a conclusion that while the overwhelming majority of Republicans differ with Giuliani on abortion, gay rights and gun control, a much smaller percentage of GOP primary voters -- perhaps no more than a quarter -- are single-issue voters who would never vote for him because of his views on those issues, a percentage borne out by the latest Post-ABC News poll..."

While the Dems and Repubs scurry to define themselves and the candidates look for "credible paths" to major party nominations, independent voters can do likewise. Independents are allowed to vote in various forms of primary structures in 22 states. For them and for the rest of us, what we independents do now will determine what influence we will have come the general election.

Independents can define ourselves and create the path to the Presidency for 2008 for the American people.

Changing our political culture isn't easy by any means. But independents have an increasing capacity and responsibility to lead the way in 2008 for a new direction for our country. Certainly one thing we have in our favor is that we're not interested in partisan (or bi-partisan) politics. -NH

Giuliani and the independents

Giuliani emerges as GOP's front runner
By William Douglas ...Giuliani also appears to the favorite among independents. In a USA Today/Gallup poll last month, independents gave him a 68 percent favorable rating, to 55 percent for McCain. (Clinton and Obama each had a 55 percent favorable rating.)
Giuliani's crossover appeal is striking. Democrats gave him a 55 percent favorable rating in the USA Today/Gallup survey, while Obama had only a 39 percent favorable rating among Republicans, and Clinton had 28 percent... (McClatchy Newspapers)