Indies Prefer Obama Over Romney

INDEPENDENT VOTERS
Dem poll analysis: Competing visions (By: Celinda Lake and Daniel Gotoff and Kristin Pondel, Politico) More encouragingly, independents’ appetite for either of the current Republican frontrunners is limited. Independents support Obama 47% to 34% over Romney—Romney being the candidate a 48% plurality of Republicans believes will win the nomination… However, while the topline dynamics may appear static, there has been considerable movement underneath—particularly among independents. In September, independent voters leaned toward the GOP (29% to 26%), with a 45% plurality undecided. Today, Democrats have a decisive 9-point advantage over the GOP among independents (35% to 26%), with another 39% undecided.

Americans Want Alternative to 2 Parties

INDEPENDENT VOTERS

• Major Parties Struggle for Popularity; Broad Interest in an Alternative (ABC News/ Polls, by Gary Langer) Interest in an independent candidate peaks, naturally, among independents themselves; 73 percent like the idea, vs. 57 percent of Republicans and 53 percent of Democrats. And 37 percent of independents “strongly” favor the notion. Independents, as it happens, are in good supply these days: they’ve outnumbered Democrats and Republicans in ABC/Post polls steadily since 2009, by far the longest period in which they’ve done so in polling back to 1981.   
• Gallup poll: Obama scores points with Iraq withdrawal pledge (By Michael Muskal, LA Times
  November 2, 2011, 11:32 a.m.) Independent voters approved of Obama’s actions by 77% to 17%.

Independent Voters: Moderation Is Not the Solution

INDEPENDENT VOTERS

• Less conformity is the answer (LETTER LA Times) Before we can truly liberate our vote from the corporate political parties, we must first liberate our thinking from people like Masket and Noel and base our vote on what we really want instead of what we believe others are going to do.
• Where’s Howard Dean? (by Randy Shaw‚ Beyond Chron) Dean often claimed that he represented “the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party,” and was a hero to the progressive netroots. Yet at a time when President Obama is openly ignoring this “Democratic wing” while currying favor with “independents,” Dean is publicly silent over the president’s rightward shift.
• President Obama's Tipping Point (By Reid Wilson, National Journal/On the Trail) Obama's high personal-favorability ratings show swing voters are rooting for him to succeed, while his low job-performance rating demonstrates they don't like where he's going so far. If Obama's favorability ratings start sinking to match his approval numbers, it may be a sign that those critical independent voters have washed their hands of his presidency.
• With economy, poll numbers low, Obama asks voters to give him leverage (By Donovan Slack, Boston Globe)
• Independents gain, while big parties lose voters in Arizona (By David Rookhuyzen/wick communications) Registered Republicans dropped by more than 3,000 voters since April, while Democrats hemorrhaged nearly 8,000 voters in the same period, the report showed. However, the number of independents, those registering without a party or with an unrecognized party, jumped by more than 13,000.

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS 9/23/09

INDEPENDENT VOTERS

• Poll Reflects Afghan War Doubts-Obama Slips on Foreign Policy, but Gains on Health-Care and Economic Fronts (By JONATHAN WEISMAN, Wall Street Journal) As the 2010 election cycle heats up, independent voters now favor Republican control of Congress by four percentage points.
• NBC/WSJ: OBAMA HEALTH #S INCH UP (From NBC's Mark Murray)
• Job One-The only way Obama can pull his presidency back from the brink. (John B. Judis, The New Republic)
• ANALYSIS-ACORN scandal not seen rubbing off on Obama (Reuters)
• The Most Important Number in Politics Today (Chris Cillizza, Washington Post/The Fix)
• Obama's Leadership Qualities Stand Out to Americans (by Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup) Democrats' views have barely changed (90% in April vs. 88% today), while Republicans' (38% vs. 21%) and independents' (63% vs. 50%) ratings are down more than 10 points each.

BLOOMBERG 09

• Thompson can beat Bloomberg, Ferrer contends (By Laura Andrews, Caribbean Life News)

INDEPENDENCE PARTY

• Defeated Councilman Kendall Stewart vows to fight on as independent against Jumaane Williams (BY ELIZABETH HAYS, DAILY NEWS)
• Civic Leader, Bounced From Community Board, Leads Revolt (By Harold Egeln, Brooklyn Daily Eagle) A group of Democrats is revolting in Bay Ridge and Dyker Heights. The homegrown rebellion is only targeting one Democratic Party councilman, incumbent Vincent Gentile in the 43rd Council District, and it supports Republican candidate Bob Capano.

WORKING FAMILIES PARTY

• After Years as Aide, Powerful Support (By JULIE BOSMAN, NY Times) Dan Cantor, the executive director of the Working Families Party, said Mr. de Blasio had established “a dense and deep network of connections” among community-based organizations and advocacy groups.

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

INDEPENDENT MOVEMENT
Ok, so the independent movement went left (by going right) -- a story that the MSM seems to have completely missed, and now the media is fixated on percentages of independents who now disapprove of Obama. Not so fast says Chris Cillizza in The Fix -- it's where independents will go in the midterms that the Dems have to watch out for!

• REVIEW of Committee for a Unified Independent Party President Jacqueline Salit's How the Independent Movement Went Left by Going Right by Darrel Manson in Hollywood Jesus - "Pop Culture from a Spiritual Point of View") NOTE: Darrel is an ordained minister in the Christian Church (Disciples of Christ), and a member of the Green Party, living in southern California.
• Independents edge away from Obama (By: Ben Smith, Politico) “This is a huge sea change that is playing itself out in American politics,” said Democratic pollster Doug Schoen. “Independents who had become effectively operational Democrats in 2006 and 2008 are now up for grabs and are trending Republican...."
• Independents backing away from Obama (By DOUG THOMPSON, Capitol Hill Blue)
• Not so fast, says Chris Cillizza -- Obama is still very strong among independents: The Most Important Number in Politics Today (Chris Cillizza, Washington Post/The Fix) It's the midterms you have to watch out for....
• Sarah Palin, crazy or brilliant (Joshua Lobdell, Detroit Conservative Examiner) Independent voters by a 55%-34% simply want Palin to leave the national stage...

CALIFORNIA OPEN PRIMARIES
Arnold goes up against California Teachers Association -- again!

• Schwarzenegger holds his ground on budget (Carla Marinucci, Matthew Yi, San Francisco Chronicle) Schwarzenegger's recent resolve may be a product of his short political timetable: He cannot run again because of term limits, but he is keenly concerned about his legacy - and eager to put reform measures like an open primary and a rainy day fund before voters.

NEW YORK CITY POLITICS
Democratic Party losing ground in the face of growing independent movement in NYC:

• Queens City Council member Tony Avella wants a bigger fight against Bloomberg than what Bill Thompson is putting up.... Little-known Democrat still in NYC mayor's race (SARA KUGLER, Newsday)
• Wayne Barrett: The Empty-Suit Board of Ed (By Wayne Barrett, Village Voice/Runnin Scared) To see how far we've come, the last Board of Ed president was Bill Thompson, who rode that job into his current position as comptroller. Robert Wagner and David Dinkins were Stringer predecessors whose records as Manhattan borough president carried them into Gracie Mansion, and former Bronx Borough president Fernando Ferrer was the last Democratic nominee for mayor. Now, not all the clowns are in Albany.

LAST WORD
What are all those Obama-istas up to now? The database still belongs to the DNC. But are they having conversations with their neighbors???

• An Army Untapped (By Harold Meyerson, Washington Post) This year, however, the administration has asked far less of that list and received, not surprisingly, far less in return. Organizing for America (formerly Obama for America), which maintains that list within the confines of the Democratic National Committee, has asked those 13 million Obamaites to "create a conversation within their communities," in the words of one DNC official.

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

ELECTION ANALYSIS

• Pollsters Debate America's Political Realignment (Washington Post) Yet realignments are often predicted and rarely occur. One reason is that they can occur only if the least political Americans, the swing voters who consider themselves independents (though they often lean toward one party), have to participate.
• Obama Should Govern from the Left--Center--Right--All of the Above (Commentary By Lee Russ, Watching the Watchers) I'd venture that most of us who voted for Obama did so at least partly because he appears to have the character and temperament to make wise choices, to listen to many opinions, to be persuaded by external facts that a change in course might be needed, and to see beyond rigid, divisive labels that constrict rather than further debate.
• Obama's identity crisis - Pundits can't decide who they want him to be (By Michael Mccord, Seacoastonline.com) Virtually ignoring that an election just took place, Newsweek sets its ideological boundary by claiming yet again that the country remains "right of center" politically (even before the election, Newsweek offered a take-your-cod-liver-oil cover story, assuming Obama's victory and warning him not to forget it's a center-right country).

NEW YORK POLITICS
Comptroller Gives Mayor Low Marks on Schools (by Vladic Ravich, Queens Chronicle) The conference featured a wide variety of speakers, such as develpmental psychologist Lenora Fulani, who advocated “play, curiosity and exploration” as crucial factors for lifting young people out of neighborhoods filled with crime and poverty. h/t to David M. Quintana at Lost in the Ozone

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

INDEPENDENT VOTERS
Why 2008 will be a year for North Carolina Democrats (Citizen Times Asheville NC) 95,000 registered as Unaffiliated. Who are these people? We are told many are young and African Americans registering for the first time. It is a safe assumption many have registered to vote for Barack Obama.

CAMPAIGN
Demographic Groups Shift in Battleground Polls (Wall Street Journal/Washington Wire) Looking at changes across all four states, independent voters inspired the biggest shift. Obama saw a 26 percentage point loss from June to July, whereas McCain saw a 22 point gain.

LOCAL INDEPENDENT NEWS
POLITIGAB: 100 percent behind growth (THE GAZETTE Colorado Springs) Only Republicans or Democrats get to participate in the Aug. 12 primary election. That leaves out about 114,000 registered voters who are not affiliated with either party.

Presidential Polls on Independence Day

From Rasmussen Reports:
Voters not affiliated with either party are the most critical of Congressional performance. Just 3% of those voters give Congress positive ratings, down from 6% last month. Sixty-three percent (63%) believe Congress is doing a poor job, up from 57% last month.

From Zogby International:
Bob Barr gets 43% of libertarians and 11% of independents. On the left, Ralph Nader gets less than 2% nationally. Independents break 39% for Obama, compared with 31% who support McCain.

From an independent voter on Roosevelt Island (NYC):
I'm leaning towards Obama, but I really hope he doesn't take Hillary on as a VP candidate. I hear she doesn't like independents.

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

INDEPENDENT VOTERS
Indie Talk Launches General Election Coverage with 'The Fight for Independents' Special Broadcast Exclusively on SIRIUS (Financial News USA) July 8. Mark your calendar!

CAMPAIGN

• Obama, Clinton won't leave them laughing (Concord Monitor) Obama's real concern in purple New Hampshire is not bitter Clintonistas but the independent voters here who have long swooned for McCain.
• Obama Leads McCain In Four Battleground States (Quinnipiac Poll)
• Inside The LA Times Poll (Houston Chronicle) Independent voters - In a two-way race McCain has an 11 point advantage, in a four-way race that lead goes down to 3, within the margin of error.

UTAH
HERALD POLL: How to fix Utah voting (Daily Herald)

NONPARTISAN PRIMARIES
Say no to partisan primary elections in Clinton Twp. (Recorder Community Newspapers/Hunterdon Review)

REDISTRICTING REFORM
Election-map initiative helps voters, state progress (Sac Bee)

Pennsylvania Polls: Obama catches up to Hillary

From Poll Tracker at CQ Politics: Seven More Pa. Polls: Clinton's Margins are 10, 7, 6, 5 and 3

Who are the independents and what do they think?

"Independents are free to make policy and candidate choices without being constrained by partisan interests. That's why independents can be the engine for up-from-the-bottom change."
Agree? Strongly agree?

I just took a new survey designed to capture the opinions of independent voters in the 2008 Presidential election and I strongly urge you to do so too.

If you haven't been to the http://www.independentvoting.org/ website before, check it out. It's filled with great information for independents, and you can sign up to receive regular updates or participate in a variety of ways in the independent movement. And of course, send a note to your independent and independent-minded friends too, and ask them to take the survey!

Click here to take the CUIP Presidential Survey...
--NH

Independents played a big role in New Hampshire Primary

By BETTY WARD and DONNA RICHARDS in the Nashua Telegraph: .....The media, pollsters, pundits and parties chewed their fingernails wondering what independent voters would do. They surveyed, analyzed, predicted, interviewed and “defined” independent voters ad nauseam. They got some of it right – we are looking for fundamental change and trustworthy leadership – and they got some of it wrong by trying to predict exactly what independent voters would do and by making generalizations about independent voters that are not fact-based.....

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

The partisan wedge (Tony Messenger, News Leader Springfield MO) Those independents, and disgruntled members of both parties, carry a powerful voice.

This just in: Pollsters were right (Union Leader) Some independent Obama supporters who saw his big lead in the polls may have felt free to vote for another candidate -- like Republican winner McCain. [Also see independent strategist Jacqueline Salit's Some Thoughts on the New Hampshire Results]

Making reference to "the messed-up nature of the Democratic presidential primary this year..." the Kalamazoo Gazette has endorsed John McCain and thinks Indies who would otherwise toss a coin should vote in the Repub primary for him.


In what the New York Times calls a "proxy battle" between Hillary and Obama, the Teachers union in Nevada is suing the Democratic Party for setting up precincts in casinos that would enable casino workers (and members of the union that endorsed Obama last week) ... The Times reports that "D. Taylor, the secretary-treasurer of Culinary Local 226, criticized the lawsuit as “despicable” and “disgusting. I never thought we’d have people in the Democratic Party try to disenfranchise women, people of color and large numbers of working people in this state,” he said." NOTE TO MR. TAYLOR: THINK AGAIN! More discussion below:

• Don’t Democrats Call This Voter Suppression? (By Joe Gandelman, The Moderate Voice)
• Democrats: The Nevada caucuses go to court (Campaign Diaries)

Hillary Clinton attacks Obama (By: Mike Allen and Ben Smith, Politico) Notes on Hillary on Meet the Press.

S.C. primaries could be pivotal for both parties (By Rudolph Bell, The Greenville (S.C.) News) Charles Bullock, a political scientist at the University of Georgia, said Obama, unlike Jesse Jackson in 1988, has the potential to put together a biracial coalition. If he can appeal to South Carolina blacks while retaining the same level of white support he got in Iowa and New Hampshire, "he wins in a runaway," Bullock said.

Can a black man become president? Some in Triad believe that time is right (By Mary Giunca and Bertrand M. Gutierrez, Winston Salem Journal)

You have primary confusion? Election officials offer help (Charlotte Observer) For the first time in history, the state is operating South Carolina's presidential primaries ..... and voters in S.C. do not register by party.....

Endorsements and voting blocs (Washington Times) The black vote is torn between Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton, according to polls in South Carolina.... If you pick up a copy of The Neo-Independent magazine, you'll read about Wayne Griffin's South Carolina Independents for Obama who says he thinks the split is a good thing for the African American community: "We need to learn that we have choices," he says....

Kerry Shows Up Late Again (By Jack Kelly, RealClearPolitics) Because I never bet against the Clintons in a close race -- they bring a machinegun to a knife fight -- I think Sen. Obama will win the nomination only if Sen. Edwards drops out of the race and throws his support to Sen. Obama while he still has some support to throw. If the anti-Clinton vote is divided at all, Hillary wins.

Barack Obama leading among New York blacks; Hillary Clinton still leading (BY CELESTE KATZ and IAN BISHOP, DAILY NEWS)

Hillary and Bill lose their hold on black voters (Les Payne, NY Newsday)

Clinton pollster says percentage of independents in Time poll skewed results

From the New York Sun:
Mrs. Clinton's pollster, Mark Penn, told The New York Sun yesterday that the Time survey is out of line with three other national polls taken recently, all of which show the former first lady doing substantially better across the board. He also said the proportion of independent voters in the Time poll, 25%, was too high and skewed the results against Mrs. Clinton, who does best with registered Democrats.
Mr. Penn said state-by-state surveys suggest Mrs. Clinton's recent outreach to African-Americans is paying off. "In the polls I've seen in Alabama and South Carolina, she's gone up after Selma. That is an important indicator of a trend," he said.
The polls also show some dangers for Mr. Obama, whose campaign declined to comment for this article. A CNN survey out this week showed Mrs. Clinton's support firm and his support soft.... (New York Sun - subscription needed)