Monday, June 5, 2006 Mexidata
Mexican Electoral Demography
By Allan Wall
The 2006 Mexican presidential election campaign is now down to its last month, and it’s a close one. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (known as AMLO) of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), and Felipe Calderon of the National Action Party (PAN) are in a virtual tie, with Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, the PRI, trailing.
And it looks to be an exciting finish.
The basic questions for a campaigner (and his advisers) are “Why do people vote for me?” “Why do people vote for my opponent?” and “How can I attract more voters?”
This leads them directly into the demographic question – which sectors of society are more likely to vote for particular parties and candidates.
Political campaigns are not designed to win the votes of die-hard party members. It’s not necessary, as die-hard members already plan to vote for their party. A political campaign is designed to win the votes of the undecided, the wavering and potentially disloyal party members.
The real battle is for independent voters, those who don’t consider themselves as belonging to any political party. In the 2006 Mexican presidential election, the urban independent electorate is a key constituency being targeted, and when Calderon passed AMLO in the polls he gained support among this group.... [more]