Recommended viewing: The Hankster on independent voters and the primaries

Hear what The Hankster herself has to say about independent voters and the primary elections. Click on hankstertube, or click on the video at the top of The Hankster! Thanks for listening!

Independents played a big role in New Hampshire Primary

By BETTY WARD and DONNA RICHARDS in the Nashua Telegraph: .....The media, pollsters, pundits and parties chewed their fingernails wondering what independent voters would do. They surveyed, analyzed, predicted, interviewed and “defined” independent voters ad nauseam. They got some of it right – we are looking for fundamental change and trustworthy leadership – and they got some of it wrong by trying to predict exactly what independent voters would do and by making generalizations about independent voters that are not fact-based.....

Independent and looking for a hot date?

Here are some hot tips:

1. Independent political strategist Jackie Salit will be on CNN's "Situation Room" tonight (Thursday). The program runs from 5-6 pm Eastern Time. Go to your favorite hangout that has a tv, approach someone and ask if they're an independent voter, invite them to watch the show.

2. Call up an old friend you haven't talked to in a while and read them Jackie's New Hampshire primary analysis : "Some Thoughts on the New Hampshire Results". (And feel free to talk about it while you're doing it--it's more fun that way.)

3. Or, if you prefer being with more than one person, join independents around the country for a national conference call on Sunday January 27th at 7:00 pm EST called "How's It Going? An Independent Look at the Presidential Process" (Call Nancy Ross at 800-288-3201 - or email your name, state and phone number to national@cuip.org Tell her The Hankster sent you!)

Have fun!

-NH

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

• Independents sending a message (Letter to Sarasota Herald Tribune)
• Why polls in New Hampshire were so far off (Carla Marinucci, San Francisco Chronicle) Mark Baldassare: "Independents will play an important role and will be a real challenge for the pollster."
• For Democratic presidential candidates, all states solidly in flux (By GROMER JEFFERS JR. / The Dallas Morning News) Clinton campaign confident that Democrats in South Carolina would have more sway than the independent voters who dominated the process in Iowa and New Hampshire.
• N.H. shows polls can often misfire (By Hillary Chabot, Berkshire Eagle Boston) Suffolk University was one of the rare polls that came close to the actual outcome, showing Obama ahead of Clinton, but within the four-point margin of error.... The final reason involved a bit of luck. Independent voters, who make up 45 percent of the state, saw that Obama had a secure win and decided to vote on the Republican ballot instead, Paleologos said.
• Polls Missed Late Voter Shift, Key Absence-Women Turned to Clinton After Moment in Diner; The Young Stayed Home (By JUNE KRONHOLZ, Wall Street Journal) Pollsters also overestimated the turnout of young voters, who overwhelmingly favored Mr. Obama in exit polls but didn't surge to vote as they had in Iowa. Although Mr. Obama won the biggest share of independent voters and "walk-ups" (those registering to vote that day), neither was enough to offset the tide of women shifting to Mrs. Clinton.
• Independent Voter Numbers Rise Because People Aren't Satisfied (Highlands Today, Tampa Bay FL)
• DNC Begins McCain Bracketing: "Pro-Bush Republican" with "Right Wing Baggage." (Marc Ambinder The Atlantic) "McCain’s reinvention as a right-wing partisan might convince the Republican base that they don’t have to worry about the Maverick McCain standing in the way of a radical right wing agenda. However, swing voters who are looking for the Maverick McCain might be puzzled when this version of John McCain shows up at their doorstep with his new baggage in tow."
• Independent Voters - More Thoughts (Primary Voices Boston Globe)
• I love the sound of a ballot being cast; it rings true. (by Donna Richards, Primary Voices Boston Globe)

• Clinton vs. Obama: Must the gentleman step aside for the lady? (Betty Bayé, Courier Journal Louisville KY)

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

Today's News Headlines is a little late today, but here it is. Also, stay tuned tonight for comments from New Hampshire independent activists.....

• New Hampshire Polling: What Went Wrong?-the political equivalent of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle (Townhall.com) Clever!
• Tale of women, independents (Baltimore Sun)
• Younger voters take a shot at the status quo (Los Angeles Daily News) Not a shot at BEING the status quo, a shot AT the status quo!
• 'Decline-to-state' voters add Golden State intrigue (Sac Bee) -"We want decline-to-state voters to understand they have a home in the Democratic Party," said Roger Salazar, a party spokesman. AHH -- the Dem attempt to co-opt independents begins!!!!
• Unaffiliated voters key to victory in presidential election (Mercury News)
• Obama Moves On, Without a Bounce (Time Magazine)
• St. Cloud-based marketing company capitalizes on Obama success (St. Cloud Times - MN)
• Watchword went from 'change' to 'comeback' (Union Leader) FOR WHOM???
• Clinton Wins in a Stunning Upset (Chris Cillizza-Washington Post The Fix) STUNNING??? (see above...)
• Did Independents Voting For McCain Hurt Obama And Help Clinton? (By Joe Gandelman - The Moderate Voice)

• FOX News Exit Polls: Women and Seniors Like Clinton (by FOXNews.com from last night)
• N.H. Voters Tout Independent Style in Primary Contest (PBS)
• Huge Turnout Makes New Hampshire Primary Results Hard to Predict (Associated Content)
• How Many Independents? (RealClearPolitics) HINT: They don't believe in independent voters....
• Hillary stuns Obama, wins in N.H. (NY Newsday) They must have read Chris Cillizza's piece.....
• Pollster: Bloomberg Is 'Catalyst' of American Politics (NY Sun)
• NY's Voter Registration Red Tape (Elizabeth Benjamin, NY Daily News-The Daily Politics)

An Independent Look at the Presidential Process

What's new, what's developing post-Iowa, post-New Hampshire?

If you're an independent, you might be interested in this CUIP Conference Call:

How's it Going? An Independent Look at the Presidential Process
Led by Jacqueline Salit
Editor of the Neo-Independent magazine and president of CUIP.

When: Sunday, January 27th
Time: 7:00pm EST 6:00pm CST 5:00pm MST 4:00pm PST


Call Nancy Ross at 800-288-3201 - or email your name, state and phone number to national@cuip.org

Tell her The Hankster sent you!

New Hampshire: Independents, Women and Youth

ABC has parsed the numbers this way:

Barack Obama won independent voters about 8 points.

Hillary Clinton won registered Democrats by about the same margin.

More Democrats than independents voted, 54 percent to 44 percent.

One key segment of Obama’s victory margin in Iowa, youth, did not turn out in New Hampshire as they did in Iowa.

Seventeen percent of 18- to 29-year-olds voted in the Democratic contest in New Hampshire, a proportion similar to the 2000 and 2004 general elections and about 5 percent fewer than in the Iowa caucuses.....

New Hampshire primary: Lots and lots of voters, lots and lots of independents!

Here at 10:09pm: Record turnout in Dem primary in New Hampshire at 280,000 voters.... Repub turnout down from 2000....

Independents in Durham number 3000 - Dems number 2000, and it's a college town presumably favoring Obama.....

Dartmouth College in Hanover 7000 votes are still in play, 3500 are independents....

You got it folks! It's a cliff hanger!!

We Could Be Heading in a Different Direction

And from my favorite prognosticator We Could Be Famous:


Dems:
Obama: 51%
Clinton: 25%
Edwards: 19%


Repubs:
McCain: 38%
Romney: 25%
Huckabee: 12%
Giuliani: 12%
Paul: 7%

Obama landslide tonight?

Prediction from D. James McSaddle on The Truth Or Something Like It (a pro-Obama blog)

"If Hillary is to live another day, she must stop Obama tonight or hope that he ends his own career with some profound mistake."

DEMOCRATS
Obama: by nearly 40%
Hillary: will come in around 30 or below
Edwards: will hover around 20%

REPUBLICANS
McCain: 27%(?)
Romney: 24%(?)
Huckabee: 14%
Rudy: 12%
Paul: 10%

What to watch for today: Turnout and independent voters

Thing to watch today from Political CommenTerry:

• First, turnout: High is good for Barack Obama. Low is good for establishment candidates.


• Second, watch where the independent voters are going.


• Third, watch the battle between McCain and Mitt Romney. New Hampshire will be a virtual elimination round.


• Fourth, watch the Ron Paul factor. If Paul were to garner 15% or more of the New Hampshire GOP primary vote, I believe it will be difficult for McCain to win.


• Finally, watch Mike Huckabee's order of finish. He doesn't need to win, but he does need to finish third, ahead of Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, and Ron Paul, to retain the momentum from his Iowa win.....

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

IT'S ALL ABOUT THE INDEPENDENTS!

• Independents key in New Hampshire-McCain, Obama appeal to undeclared voters (By Finlay Lewis, San Diego Union Tribune) Quotes Russ Ouellette, New Hampshire Committee for an Independent Voice
• National Focus Poses Challenge for Obama (Washington Post)
• Electability is key for voters in S. Carolina-For some black Democrats, Obama's Iowa win is a sign that Americans see past race, but others doubt his chances of a November win (Chicago Tribune)
• N.H. independents may hold key to future (Los Angeles Times)
• Finally, NH votes (Union Leader)
• Independents' Day-There are probably enough Independents to go around to both John McCain and Barack Obama. (National Review Online, By Jim Geraghty)
• The GOP's Jesse Jackson Moment? (The Atlantic: Mark Falcoff, by Ross Douthat)
• California Unaffiliated voters key to victory (Mercury News)
• Obama seen as unifying black and white voters (NY Newsday)
• N.H. independents likely to decide primary winners (NY Newsday)

BLOOMBERG

• Bloomberg in Spotlight but Still Not in Fray (Wall Street Journal)
• Obama’s Surge Deflates Forum and Talk of a Bloomberg Run (New York Times)
• Bloomberg Could Get on Texas Ballot with 43,991 Signatures, Even Though Media All Say He Needs 74,108 (Ballot Access News)
• Angry Independents Call for Bipartisanship-Oklahoma conclave brings together possible candidate Bloomberg and other middle-roaders (US News & World Report)

RON PAUL

• Ron Paul on the Verge of Going Third Party? (National Ledger, By Eric Dondero)
  

IT BEARS REPEATING:

• Why the Left Doesn’t Appreciate Obama (by Randy Shaw, Beyond Chron blog San Francisco Chronicle): "Yet bloggers are suspicious at Obama’s appeal to independent voters. Some take a giant leap in concluding that Obama’s attempt to broaden the Democratic base is a sign that he will allow such backers to water down or “co-opt” his policies as President......"
• Obama follows other African-American presidential hopefuls (reprinted on Raw Story): Not sure why Lenora Fulani's historic 1988 run for president is termed "marginal" since she was the first woman and first African American to be on the ballot in all 50 states... Oh, that's right, she ran as an independent candidate.....!!!!

How will New Hampshire independents vote tomorrow?

CBS poll says: Obama also leads Clinton 41 percent to 24 percent among independent voters who the survey said would make up more than one-third of tomorrow's Democratic primary voters. (Cleveland Plain Dealer Politics Blog)

New Hampshire Independents Will Carry the Day

From Roadto2008.com New Hampshire Independents Will Carry the Day; Trust Your Gut: "History reminds us that the independent voters can easily swing the outcome in New Hampshire’s primary....."

John McCain builds on his 2000 upset win in New Hampshire when independents came out in droves for the Senator. And Barack Obama gives voice to a new day in the midst of a national independent electorate that's bigger, blacker and more left. The most significant development in the independent movement since the implosion of the Reform party is called the black and independent alliance....

Stay tuned....!

Repub establishment vs. Independents in New Hampshire

The Repubs are already thinking about how to get rid of Mike Huckabee. This from Andrew Sullivan's "The GOP's "Jesse Jackson Moment" on The Daily Dish quoting from Mitt Romney's advisor Mark Falcoff "In spite of itself, the party might end up with him as its nominee, and with it, heading down the shortest road to disaster since the Goldwater debacle of 1964....."

Independent Voters May Sway New Hampshire Primary

One of the famous quirks of the New Hampshire Primary is that you don't actually have to be a Democrat or a Republican in order to vote. 150,000 Independents are expected to cast ballots.... (WBKO Bowling Green KY)

New Hampshire independent voters impact on primary

Tim Russert on MSN Video talks about independent voters poll choices for Obama and McCain in New Hampshire...

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

INDEPENDENT VOTERS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE:

• Earlier primaries change the game (RON EACHUS, Salem Statesman Journal)
• N.H. Independents torn between Barack Obama and John McCain (BY CELESTE KATZ in Nashua, N.H. and RICHARD SISK in Salem, N.H., NY DAILY NEWS)
• OBAMA HAS 13-POINT NH LEAD (By KENNETH LOVETT, NY Post)
• New Hampshire voters once again back McCain (BY REID J. EPSTEIN, NY Newsday)
• Independents size up McCain at Salem rally (By TRENT SPINER, Union Leader)
• McCain Tries To Woo Independent Voters, Some See Choice Between McCain, Obama (WMUR)
• An Independent State of Mind (Jake Tapper, Power Punch blog, ABC News)

BLOOMBERG OKLAHOMA MEETING ROUNDUP:
NOTE: The Oklahoma meeting today is NOT a "Unity 08" meeting as reported by a couple of columnists.

• Voters a step ahead of Bloomberg-New York's mayor wants a bipartisan president, but voters are already pushing in this direction....At this point, it doesn't look like another entrant is necessary. (Christian Science Monitor)
• Nunn's conclave looks to get politics back on track (By JIM GALLOWAY, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution)
• If mayor ran, no easy road (BY KARLA SCHUSTER, NY Newsday)
• Point of Contact (Dallas Morning News)
• Bloomberg says not presidential candidate (Reuters)
• Voters seem ready for bipartisan political forum (The Norman Transcript)

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

Continued coverage of the importance of -- and difference in -- independent voters in the primary elections below. Personally I was happy to see Obama and Huckabee win the Iowa caucuses because I think it shows, in Obama's case, an effective ground operation that is pulling new and independent voters, and because it lays the basis for the voters, not the party establishment, to have our say in this election. Ron Paul did well and I think that also supports the independent movement's growth. Let's work to build a long-term strategy for power to the people from the momentum of this year's election.

• Will New Hampshire stay blue: Independent voters crucial (Fosters Daily Democrat)
• Big turnout in Iowa caucus is big deal for New Hampshire (By Thomas Beaumont, Des Moines Register)
• Iowa shows pros don't know much (Albor Ruiz, NY Daily News)
• Hopefuls go after the independents-Obama likely to get those leaning to vote Democrat (By Todd Spangler, Detroit Free Press)
• Who's in 1st? They all are-Presidential hopefuls press on optimistically to next round (By David Beery, Chicago Daily Herald)
• Tuesday could be independents' day-Paul, rivals target unaligned voters in New Hampshire (Bennett Roth, Houston Chronicle)
• Picking a party at the polls (Union Leader NH)
• Inside Obama’s Dream Machine-An icon of hope, he won't 'kneecap' his foes. But Obama knows what it takes, and how to win. (By Richard Wolffe, NEWSWEEK)

The ABC Dem debate last night discussion of foreign policy suffered in the absence of Kucinich.

• Kucinich Campaign: ABC is violating public interest and endorsing 'chosen' candidates (American Chronicle)

Independents speak out on local and state status

• Pennsylvania fails its independents (Mike Joseph, The Thin Man, Centre Daily Times)
• Independents have great power (LETTER to the Arizona Republic)

If you'd like to know what The Hankster thinks about the potential run for president by now-independent Mike Bloomberg, see my article on OpEdNews from last week "Bloomberg Inching/Voters Itching" .....An electorate that's becoming independent because they feel that divisive partisanship is increasingly dangerous to the future of the country is dangerous to partisan politics......

• Possible 3rd Party Candidate Rumors Whirl-Bipartisan Okla. Caucus Aims To Influence Current Candidates, But What If It Doesn't Work? (CBS News)
• Reform Party USA Elects Executive Director (Third Party Watch) Note: MacKay has been giving away the independent store for a long time in New York... (see Hankster OpEdNews piece above)

POLLS

• NH Primary 2008 (R): McCain 34.8%, Romney 29.7% (Angus Reid Global Monitor)
• Ron Paul at 14% in New Hampshire, John McCain Leads - Rasmussen Reports (Transworldnews)

New Hampshire Primary: The Independents

Don't miss New Hampshire independents on NBC Nightly News with Tom Brokaw at the top of The Hankster. Independents Betty Ward, Kevin Drew, and Bart Hunter talk about how they as independents will be making their decisions about voting in the upcoming primary in New Hampshire where 44% of the voters are independent and can vote in the primary of their choice.