12 Percent of Voters Are Tea Partiers: Tail Wagging the Dog?

As a quick reminder, the handful of Tea Party freshman who won in 2010 did so in closed primary states. As another quick reminder, the Tea Party couldn't be dictating policy if ordinary Americans were able to fully participate in the political dialogue. Which they're not able to because of the control that the parties and the partisan corporate Big Media (whether "liberal" or "conservative".)

OBAMA

• Obama Hits New Low in Quinnipiac Poll (By Steven Shepard, NATIONAL JOURNAL/Hotline On Call) "Men, whites and independent voters were the president's weak spots when his job approval was positive, and those groups have progressed from being weak spots to being serious problems," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
• September 1, 2011 - Obama Approval Hits All-Time Low, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Economy Is Getting Worse, More Voters Say (Quinnipiac) Only 12 percent of voters consider themselves members of the Tea Party movement, and voters have a 42 - 29 percent unfavorable view of it, which is better than the 51 - 35 percent unfavorable view of the Democrats and 53 - 32 percent unfavorable view of the Republicans.
• To Get on Winning Path, Obama Should Act Like Democrat (By J.J. Goldberg, Jewish Daily Forward) The usual answer is that independent voters switched from Democratic to Republican, giving the GOP the edge. In fact, there was a shift, but not enough to turn the election. Self-described independents made up about 38% of the electorate in 2010, slightly up from 35% in 2008 (the rise was at Democrats’ expense). Independents favored Obama in 2008 by 54% to 46%; two years later they reversed and went 58%-42% Republican. If you do all the math, you’ll end up with about 4.5 million possible independent votes that switched columns from blue to red. Sobering, but not a game-changer. Put differently, if Obama won back all the independents next year that he lost in 2010, he still wouldn’t win. He needs to win back the Democrats who stayed home while Republicans were out voting.

GOP Has Major Work to Do For 2012

Although President Obama's approval rating has dropped overall and significantly with independents, Republicans have a lot of work to do as all their potential candidates are strongly unrecognized by the public.

INDEPENDENTS IN THE POLLS

• Reuters/Ipsos poll: Potential Republican candidates not quite household names (Reuters/Front Row Washington) President Barack Obama’s job approval rating fell to 49 percent in March from 51 percent in February, and dropped among independent voters to 37 percent from 47 percent over the same period, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Let's just rely on "experts" again..they know what's fair

A huge win for voter reform took place in a Washington State courtroom; U.S. District Court Judge John Coughenour rejected arguments by the major parties that the proposed system under the law confused voters who might misinterpret a candidate's party preference as an official endorsement by that party. Coughenour however rejected these claims stating that the ballot and its accompanying information concisely and clearly explain that a candidate's political-party preference does not imply any endorsement or association with that party and that the instructions actually eliminate the possibility of voter confusion and a threat to the First Amendment. The most important aspect of this upholding is that it creates a precedent that weakens opponents arguments on the fight over California's Prop-14. An attempt at redistricting reform took place in Massachusetts but was completely shot down 34-5. The new bill presented a redistricting commission headed by a panel of experts. This differs greatly from California's redistricting commission which has a quota for its partisan and non partisan members. This is by far more fair than the Massachusetts proposal, and leaves more opening for change.

OPEN PRIMARIES

• WASHINGTON STATE OPEN PRIMARY RULING HELPS WEAKEN POSSIBLE LEGAL CHALLENGES TO CALIFORNIA'S PROP 14 (by Greg Lucas, CAIVN) In his 24-page ruling upholding most of the Washington law, US District Court Judge John Coughenour (CQ) rejected arguments by the state's Republican, Democratic and Libertarian parties that the system confused voters who might misinterpret a candidate's party preference as an official endorsement by that party.

REDISTRICTING

• MA - Senate Democrats scuttle independent redistricting panel (By Kyle Cheney, Dedham Daily News Transcript) Tarr pointed to a recent poll showing that 62 percent of Massachusetts residents support an independent redistricting commission, and he also pointed out that Secretary of State William Galvin had voiced support for an independent advisory panel. Sen. Robert Hedlund (R-Weymouth) argued that independent redistricting commissions appeared to be “gaining favor” around the country.
• MA - Beacon Hill Roll Call: How did you legislator vote? (By Bob Katzen, EXCERPT Wicked Local Stow) The commission would include a dean or professor of law, political science or government from a Massachusetts institution of higher learning appointed by the governor; a retired judge appointed by the attorney general; and an expert in civil rights law appointed by the secretary of state. The other four members would be chosen by the above three members from a list of candidates nominated by the House Speaker, House Minority Leader, Senate President and Senate Minority Leader.
• MA - Let’s talk . . . in 10 years (EDITORIAL By Boston Herald) The state’s track record on transparency and fairness in redistricting isn’t exactly stellar, but the Senate rejected 5-34 a bid to appoint an independent redistricting commission.
• NY - New York State Sen. David Valesky, D-49, to discuss redistricting Jan. 22 (Oneida Daily Dispatch) Valesky is the co-sponsor of the Valesky-Gianaris redistricting bill that would establish a non-partisan redistricting commission.
• CA - UPDATED: Scott Wilk: Redistricting: You now have a voice Right Here, Right Now! (By Scott Thomas Wilk (The Santa Clarita Valley Signal) Proposition 20 was approved by 61.3 percent of voters last November and added the task of re-drawing the boundaries of California's congressional districts to the California Citizens Redistricting Commission. According to the California Citizens Redistricting Commission's website, we join 12 other states that use independent commissions to craft redistricting plans. The new commission is comprised of 14 members: five Republicans; five Democrats; and four Independents.

OBAMA

• Obama's approval rating jumps - At the midpoint of Obama's term, an NBC News/Wall Street poll shows an 8-percentage-point increase since December, to 53%, and Gallup says more independent voters now approve of his performance. (By Michael A. Memoli, Washington Bureau, LA Times) Most heartening to the White House was the improvement of Obama's numbers among self-identified independent voters. According to Gallup, 46% now approve of his performance, up from 41% during the lame-duck session and an all-time low of 38% in July.
• Shields and Brooks on GOP's Repeal Effort, Obama's Overtures to Business, China (PBS News Hour) Mark Shields: I don't think the independent voters have returned to their positive rating of Obama, which they have for the first time Obama since August of 2009, based upon his overtures to Tom Donohue and the Chamber of Commerce and Jeffrey Immelt and the Fortune 50.

REPUBLICANS

• The GOP’s Demographic Ills (By Asher Smith, Emory Wheel - Emory University Ohio) Ohio serves as a microcosm for a more general problem afflicting the Republican party. At the 2009 Republican National Convention (RNC), held in St. Paul, Minnesota, an astonishing 93 percent of delegates were white. In the 2006 elections, 69 percent of Latinos, 57 percent of women, 90 percent of blacks, 60 percent of voters under 29 and 57 percent of independent voters voted Democratic. At the 2004 RNC, a slightly less staggering but still disproportionate 85 percent of delegates were white. Only 6 percent were black.

NEW YORK

• Operatives on the Move (By David Freedlander, NY Observer/Politicker) Helmstetter comes to the WFP from Blue State Digital, the online fundraising firm that worked on Barack Obama's 2008 presidential campaign.

Anti-open primaries voices still peeping up... Obama up in polls among indies...

California's Prop-14 is going to be appealed at a state appeals court in San Francisco after being rejected by the California Supreme Court. The two primary flaws that are being cited in the law are whether minor-party (e.g. Tea Party) candidates will be forced to say they have no party preference and whether this law will disenfranchise voters. There is also more good news for Obama, who's approval rating amongst key independent voters is up to an even 44 on both sides, up from December when he had a negative assessment of 52-39.

OPEN PRIMARIES

• California's Humpty-Dumpty Law (Gautam Dutta -Business and Election Lawyer, Huffington Post) Why should we care about minor-party candidates? Think caffeine. Like it or not, the Tea Party has already made its mark on American politics. Until last year, Tea Party and other minor-party candidates were allowed to describe themselves on the ballot as "Independent". But once SB 6 kicks in, candidates from every minor (i.e., non-state-recognized) party will be foisted with the ballot label of "No Party Preference". By illegally forcing candidates to make misleading statements on the ballot, SB 6 will do voters a grave disservice.
• Durant Area Chamber of Commerce hosts Legislative Luncheon (by Leslie Boyd, Durant OK Democrat) Roberts also spoke about open primaries and how he feels it would benefit the state if everyone could vote no matter the election.

OBAMA

• CNN Poll: Obama's job approval rating on the rise (By: CNN Political Unit, Political Ticker) "Obama's approval rating among Democrats and Republicans is virtually unchanged since December, but among independents it has grown from 41 percent in December to 56 percent now," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "It's possible that his call for greater civility in the aftermath of the Arizona shootings was seen as a boost for the bipartisan solutions that typically attract independents."
• Poll finds Obama approval rebounding (UPI) Among key independent voters, Obama currently stands at an even 44-44 approval-disapproval rating. In December, he had a 52-39 negative assessment from this group.

REPUBLICANS

• Priebus and the tea party (Ben Smith, Politico) Reince Priebus faces many challenges in taking over the Republican National Committee, but among the trickiest will be building support from the anti-establishment tea party without offending big GOP donors or the independent voters the party needs in 2012.
• Poll: Americans want compromise (UPI) Fewer independent voters think Republicans and Democrats will stand firm against each other. The poll said 48 percent believe Republicans will hold their views, while 41 percent said Republicans would compromise with congressional Democrats and the president.

NEW YORK

• NY State Senator Gustavo Rivera Stakes Out Independent Role (By Monika Fabian, Feet in 2 Worlds - Telling the Stories of Today's Immigrants) I have always been a liberal, I have always been a progressive, I have always been pro-organized labor, pro the issues of the Working Families Party. And when it comes to the New Roosevelt Initiative, the types of things that they believe in, as far as making the legislature the best in the country, which is the goal of the NRI—these are things that I absolutely agree with.
• Bronx state senator Jeff Klein's Independent Democratic Conference may be heading for trouble (PATRICE O'SHAUGHNESSY, NY Daily News) Whether or not Espada Jr. is guilty of being a sort of reverse Robin Hood, using the health network as his "piggy bank," the flagship clinic still manages to serve thousands of people in one of the most medically underserved areas of the city.
• Soundview Health Center still treats local community, despite Espada scandals (BOB KAPPSTATTER, NY Daily News) Jeff formed the four-member group after getting fed up with Dem Conference Leader John Sampson letting the Four Amigos/Banditos (including Bronx Dems Pedro Espada and Ruben Diaz Sr.) blackmail him for their votes in the narrowly split senate, blow the party's Senate budget and seeing Republicans take back control with a comfortable 33-29 majority.

EDUCATION REFORM

• Union revamping reform effort, says ISTA chief Nate Schnellenberger - GOP-dominated Statehouse may require grassroots effort (By Eric Bradner, Evansville IN Courier & Press) "The thing that concerns us is in the past, there had to be negotiations between the House and the Senate because they were controlled by two different parties," Schnellenberger said. "They don't have to negotiate. I hope that they don't overreach, doing things that don't make sense to the people who understand those issues."

President Obama's Approval Rating Misleading?

Our first piece of news today surrounds Markos Moulitsas' comments concerning open primaries; he believes they should be eliminated entirely. He attempts to defend these comments by stating that open primaries allow for "political mischief" when in reality he is concerned with the fact that it could "spell death for the two-party system". Speaking of democrats, specifics from the new approval ratings for President Obama continue to come in, with various opinions of what he's done with health care and the economy being the primary issues of discussion. Moreover, although his approval rating seems to be on the rise, these numbers may be misleading, as non-partisan voters have seemed to turn on him as his approval rating with them has dropped 11% over the last two years.

OPEN PRIMARIES

• Moulitsas: Another Anti-Democracy Democrat By: themalcontent, Firedoglake) as [Markos Moulitsas] and other establishment-supporting operatives know all too well – open primaries spell the death for the two-party system.
  

OBAMA

• Obama approval on the rise (By: CNN Political Ticker) The poll indicates a jump in Obama's approval rating, which was at 44 percent in the last Quinnipiac poll in November.
• January 13, 2011 - Obama's Approval Bounces Back, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds;
• Health Care Is Best And Worst Thing He's Done (Quinnipiac University) Independent voters disapprove 46 - 41 percent.
• Obama's Rebound Numbers are Misleading (Donald Lambro, Townhall) Fifty percent of the electorate's independent voters, who hold no allegiance to either party and have turned against him in the past two years, said he has been mainly a failure. Only 39 percent said he has not.
• Obama's olive branch to Big Business (By Steven Pearlstein, Washington Post) These are more than just gestures - they represent substantive accommodation to the business community's stated priorities. By the unwritten rules of political reconciliation, they demand and deserve a similar response. The most obvious and effective would be a clear statement from the business lobby that it will not support Republicans in their effort to repeal last year's health reform legislation.

NEW JERSEY

• Booker vs. Gov. Chris Christie for governor? (The State Column)
• Booker, Christie would fight to a draw (Public Policy Polling) What's most striking within the figures on Booker is how well liked he is across party lines. Although he is unsurprisingly most popular with Democrats at a 51/12 favorability, he also has a 47/17 spread with independents, and even a 36/21 with Republicans.

NEW YORK

• NY mayor: Partisan rhetoric not to blame in Ariz. (Associated Press, Wall Street Journal) He said that it appeared to be the work of a deranged gunman, and does not blame "Sarah Palin or any other individual."

The First Test of Prop-14

The special election in California is fast approaching and will test Prop-14 for the first time although a small turnout is expected. News continues to roll in on Obama's gear up for his 2012 campaign as his approval rating rises to 50 %. It seems to be pretty obvious that his approval is dependent by the eyes of many on the health of the economy. Speaking of the economy and the budget crisis, Michelle Rhee of the Wall Street Journal discusses and interesting point on how this could be an opening for school reform, where cuts should be based on the quality of the teacher, not their seniority.

OPEN PRIMARIES

• North Dakota Bill for a Blanket Primary (Ballot Access News) The bill would change that, so that any voter could vote for any candidate in any party’s primary. This is the system that California used in 1998 and 2000, and for all special elections 1967 until 2010.
• SSP Daily Digest: 1/11 (by: Crisitunity, Swing State Project)

OBAMA

• Obama approval rises as economy improves: poll (CNBC - Reuters) Independent voters who abandoned Democrats in November 2 elections and who Obama will need to win a second term in 2012 are willing to take a second look. In this poll, independents backed him 50 percent to 45 percent.
• Obama Begins Gearing Up Re-Election Bid (By JONATHAN WEISMAN And LAURA MECKLER, Wall Street Journal) After a disastrous midterm election for his party, Mr. Obama recently has been seeking to re-establish himself as a unifying figure who can appeal to independent voters. Now, some Democratic strategists close to the White House fear the return of Mr. Obama as a candidate could harm the repositioning effort.

CALIFORNIA

• Feb. 15 to mark 'short, brutal affair' in California (Becky Yeh - OneNewsNow California correspondent, American Family News Network) Pres. of Calif. Repub Assembly: "You will see the first time -- and that's why this was a big mistake -- it drowns out voices," he notes. "You will absolutely see that probably the top two vote-getters will be Democrat[s]."
• Brown sets special election for Assembly vacancy (The Associated Press, Mercury News) Under California's new open primary law, the top two vote-getters in a March 8 primary will advance to a May 3 runoff election, regardless of party affiliation. Brown set the dates Tuesday.
  

KENTUCKY

• Willie Nelson in tune with Galbraith for governor (By Jack Brammer, Lexington Herald Leader) Nelson formed the Teapot Party last November after he was arrested for possession of marijuana. He said its motto is “We lean a little to the left.”

EDUCATION REFORM

• Dr. King and the Achievement Gap (Brian Jones, Teacher and activist, Huffington Post) If we truly want to close the achievement gap, we should remember Dr. King's words. At the end of his life, his perspectives were diametrically opposed to those of today's political elites. Yet, come Monday, they will all line up to praise his dreams of equality. They will quote his famous speech from 1963, but not his perspectives from 1967: "If the society changes its concept by placing the responsibility on its system, not on the individual, and guarantees secure employment or a minimum income, dignity will come within reach of all."
• In Budget Crises, an Opening for School Reform - School systems can put students first by making sure any layoffs account for teacher quality, not seniority. (By MICHELLE RHEE, Wall Street Journal)

LAST WORD

• Jared Lee Loughner a Registered Independent; Didn't Vote in 2010 (Posted by Stephanie Condon, CBS News/Politics Hotsheet
  Jared Lee Loughner was a registered independent, didn't vote in 2010 election (By Chris Cillizza, Washington Post/The Fix)
• Right rejects left’s charges on Palin (By Shane D’Aprile 
and Sean J. Miller, The Hill) Commentator Bill Kristol called the attacks on Palin “McCarthyism.”