Hankster News of the Day for Independent Voters - August 2

INDEPENDENT VOTERS

• New Polls in Three Battleground States Show Obama Edge (By JEFF ZELENY and DALIA SUSSMAN, NY Times) While independent voters break strongly for Mr. Obama in Pennsylvania, a state that Mr. Romney has been trying to make more competitive, they are closely split in Florida and Ohio. Of the coalition that Mr. Obama built to win the White House, independent voters remain a hurdle, with a little more than half in Florida and Ohio saying they disapprove of his job performance.
• Why Romney’s Pulling Back on PA Ad Spending Share With Friends (Keystone Politics) Pennsylvania women voters back Obama 59 – 35 percent, while men go 50 percent for Romney and 47 percent for Obama. Independent voters back Obama 58 – 36 percent.
• POLL: President Obama reaches magic number with Florida voters - President Obama edges out Romney in Florida (Local 10 - Miami) Both candidates run strong among their own party’s voters while independent voters split with 47 percent for Obama and 46 percent for Romney.
• ALSO SEE Miami Herald HERE

FULL Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times POLL DATA HERE

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

OREGON MEASURE 65
Our picks for the statehouse (The Forest Grove News-Times) Anyone looking for a good reason to support Ballot Measure 65, a proposal for open primaries, should take a look at this fall’s four match-ups for the Oregon state legislature in western Washington County.

CAMPAIGN

• Poll shows presidential race too close to call (Arizona Central) Working in McCain's favor, the state has 1.1 million registered Republicans, or about 96,000 more Republicans than Democrats. In Obama's favor, the state has about 824,000 independent voters who are are trending 60 percent to 40 percent for Obama over McCain, according to the poll.
• AP Poll: Colo. Hispanics overwhelmingly back Obama (Examiner) Thirty percent of respondents described themselves as strong or moderate Democrats, 29 percent described themselves as strong or moderate Republicans, and the rest said they were not in either party. Obama led among those independents, 54 percent to 37 percent for McCain.
• McCain Support Continues Downward Spiral -- Obama Leads by 19 Among Those Who Have Already Voted (Pew Research) Independents breaking 48 Obama, 31 McCain
• Linguistic Analysis of Obama/McCain Websites Reveals Missed Opportunities (Press Release) Candidates' websites communicate campaign messages in language that speaks to base - potentially ignores independents.
• Unaffiliated voters might be the key in governor, presidential races (Shelby Star - NC)
• Now all polls show Obama ahead in Ohio (Columbus Dispatch/Road to Washington)
• NYC mayor not backing prez candidate (Newsday)

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

OPEN PRIMARIES
TN: State party stole election from voters (The Tennessean)

INITIATIVE AND REFERENDUM
OR: Is Direct Democracy in Oregon Too Much of a Good Thing? (News Blaze)

REDISTRICTING
CA: Arnold's Redistricting Power Grab Dies at the Box Office -- Again (California Majority Report)

CAMPAIGN

• Independent voters may influence election (Daily Bruin - UCLA) Declining to affiliate oneself with a political party is a growing trend, according to several polls.
• WA: State's swing voters hold key in close elections (Seattle Post Intelligencer) The Republicans owe their 2004 and 2006 victories -- and Rossi, his near victory -- to just those voters who favored Democratic candidates at the top of the ticket and then switched to the GOP further down the ballot.
• Uncertain Times (By Andrew Kohut, NY Times/Campaign Stops) Sixty percent of independents hold a favorable opinion of her, but as many of them say Palin is not qualified to serve as president, if required
• McCain-Palin: A Third Party? (The Tampa Tribune - Hernando Today)

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

OPEN PRIMARY

• Just one initiative worthy of support (The Gresham Outlook/Clackamas Review) And that particular measure — the open primary initiative — happens to be the one worthy of voter support.
• 2008 shaping up to be important election year (Statesman Journal) Measure 65, the only ballot initiative not advanced by Mannix or Sizemore, would advance the top two finishers in a primary to the general election regardless of party affiliation.

CAMPAIGN

• Poll: Obama Gains Ground in Swing States (TIME) Likely independent voters are proving key in Michigan, where they choose McCain by just 48% to 47%. Independents in West Virginia are leaning toward McCain 2-to-1, but Obama has them by anywhere from six to 13 points in Colorado, Pennsylvania and Montana.
• Financial Crisis Has Little Sway in Presidential Poll (Wall Street Journal) The survey finds that Sen. Obama has lost ground with the independent voters who will be crucial to the outcome of the election.
• Economic Fears Give Obama Clear Lead Over McCain in Poll (Washington Post) Independents, key swing voters, now break for Obama, 53 percent to 39 percent, reversing a small lead for McCain after the Republican convention.

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

CAMPAIGN

• Some Democrats worry about race in campaign (Minnesota Public Radio) Ron Walters said he isn't surprised by a poll that says a third of White Democrats and Independent voters harbors some racist views towards African Americans.
• Rock the Vote Poll: Youth Want Obama; No Palin Effect (Jackson Free Press - MS) While Independent voters make up a slim portion of the youth vote this year, Independents are more likely to lean towards Obama than Sen. McCain.
• Morlock: Univ Arizona activists aim to register 5,000 students to vote (Tucson Citizen/Is This Thing On?) In an age where political consultants can distill an electorate down to its elements, young people risk being ignored by not voting.
• Voters express more confidence in Obama than McCain in handling the crisis. (Washington Tribune/The Swamp)
• Obama Seen As Better Able to Address Crisis (Pew Research) voters favor Barack Obama over John McCain as the presidential candidate best able to address the current financial crisis: 47% favor Obama, while 35% choose McCain. Independents prefer Obama over McCain by a margin of 44% to 30%, while Republicans and Democrats line up solidly behind their party nominees.
• Missouri poll: Obama behind (Columbia Tribune) Independents polled in July leaned toward Obama. This time, they leaned toward McCain.
• Poll: Race tight in swing states; Obama up in 3 (By The Associated Press) Quininpiac shows The two contenders run about even with men and independent voters in Wisconsin.
• Mason-Dixon poll: Obama +2 in Fla. (Palm Beach Post) A key difference in the polls: independent voters. Rasmussen had them breaking 56-to-40 for McCain. The Mason-Dixon poll shows them going 47-to-42 for Obama.

THIRD PARTIES
Coalition for October Debate Alternatives to hold Third Party Presidential candidates debate in Nashville, October 6 (CODA press release - Independent Political Report -- Austin Cassidy's Third Party Watch blog)


NEW YORK INDEPENDENCE PARTY State Chair Controversial move to endorse John McCain
Press Release STATEMENT BY NEW YORK CITY COUNTY CHAIRS (Yonkers Insider)

Independence Party of New York Officially Endorses John McCain (Yonkers Tribune) The most interesting thing here are the comments:

• According to this story 85% of the Party Memebers voted for McCain. That is 306,000 people! When did this vote occur? One would think that a third of a MILLION people would be noticed? Posted by: September 22, 2008 at 06:28 PM
• Now he will lose for sure!!! Posted by: New Kid on the block September 22, 2008 at 08:11 PM

Some Straight Talk from Dr. Lenora Fulani for John McCain about Frank MacKay and the NY Independence Party (The Hankster) An open letter

"Why are they saying that independents are swinging to McCain?"

The Hankster received another email today from a reader (very busy Hankster day!) who asked "Why are they saying that independents are swinging to McCain?"


Here's my answer:


1. First of all, GOOD QUESTION! And, for starters, the question includes the proposition that independents had been supporting Barack Obama (hence, the "swing"). This is "true" (to the extent that truth has any bearing on this election....) Fully 60% of independent voters in states that required voters to "pick a party" in the recent primaries chose a Democratic ballot. Of those, 65% voted for Barack Obama.



2. They (and by "they", we mean the Pollsters and Pundits and MSM -- which we'll call the PPMSM -- which unintentionally sounds like a Post-Partem Menopausal Stressed Mom, or something like that...) confuse "swing voters" with independents. They also confuse independents with moderates, centrists, middle-of-the-roaders, etc. -- not to mention third party voters...*

3. As David Brooks said recently: Weirdness wins. Independents are weird. Will we win? Hmmmm.... I don't know....

In my opinion, independents are voters who don't like partisan politics. They don't care for either party and do not attest loyalty to ANY party, nevermind the two major parties. Most independents don't care for the minor or "third" parties either. Third parties are marginalized in our corrupt two-party system. Independent voters are all over the place politically -- left, center, right and every point in between. After all -- we're INDEPENDENT! We "plays 'em as we sees 'em..."

3. Basically, the PPMSM is saying that independents are "swinging" to McCain because they (the PPMSM) are running polls that indicate that. The polls are very very volatile. These polls they are talking about now are in the Swing States -- FL, PA and OH...... Also, it's unclear how they are counting indies. They are categorizing voters in basically 5 boxes -- Strong Dem, Lean Dem, True Independents, Lean Repub, Strong Repub.... Hmm.... Our voters are the 3 middle categories. Our voters are split 50/50. Many indies are not impressed with either candidate.


4. And then there's the "true independent" (the PPMSM category of choice) -- As a NY indie said to me on Tuesday as we were knocking on doors for an Independence Party primary in Queens NY: "I like Obama, but because we here in New York have had the experience of black leadership when David Dinkins was Mayor, to me Obama is just another Democrat." I think a lot of independents are thinking like that. I wish Barack Obama would speak for the country and not for his chosen party. I think we'd be a lot better off. Is Barack a leader, or "just another Democrat?" We'll find out. In the meantime, I'll see you at your door.

5. And then, well there's this whole post-modern thing. What is the post-modern campaign? We don't know. That's what's post-modern about it. The PPSMSM are beginning to chirp about this.... See Jonah Goldberg for example on USA Today. In the meantime, I'll see you at the door....




A FIVE-LINE PLAY
By N. Hanks



Knock, knock.



Who's there?



A community organizer.



A community organizer what?



A community organizer. Tell me what to do.





Email The Hankster and let me know what you think we should do!

Thanks!
Hanks



PS -- For community organizers, please read LAST WORD TODAY on TODAY'S HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS: Rx for Election Anxiety Disorder-New Chemical Compounds to Help Get You to, and Through, Election Day, take a walk around the block, drink a glass of water, and call a friend! And email The Hankster -- I'd love to help!





* Presumably, independents are not "swinging to McCain" from a preference for Bob Barr, Ralph Nader, Cynthia McKinney, or any other so-called "third party" candidates, OR from Democrat Dennis Kucinich or Republican/Libertarian Ron Paul. The PPMSM are not confused about members of third parties, whom the PPMSM largely consider to be fringe, subhuman and probably unAmerican. I don't agree with Sarah Palin's politics -- from what I can assess, she is a right-wing Republican who speaks with a populist voice, and certainly NOT an independent -- she's a partisan opportunist from what I can tell. However, I think the PPMSN has gone to great lengths (which is the only lengths they go to) to demonize Palin's somewhat shallow association with the Alaskan Independence Party. I also don't agree with many of the positions that the AIP takes, however, I strenously object to the demonization of this party. This is America. Probably half the country would like to seceed from the other half. We re-live the Civil War every day. So what's new? How long does it take for a nation to come to terms with its basic contradictions? Maybe forever. We have the time. We don't have the patience. Personally I don't care if Alaska is a state or not. I've heard more than one New Yorker express the opinion that New York City should have its own government separate from the state of New York. I can sympathize. But above all, I think the people of Alaska or New York or any other specific geographical area of the world need to be heard. But I digress..... continue above...

So my advice: Read the LAST WORD TODAY on The Hankster: Rx for Election Anxiety Disorder-New Chemical Compounds to Help Get You to, and Through, Election Day (The Stranger), pour yourself a glass of tap water, and go for a long walk! I'm about to head out now! - NH

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

CAMPAIGN

• Battle for independent voters begins (Christian Science Monitor)
• Obama Leads McCain In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds (Quinnipiac)
• Obama, Clinton to join forces for fund-raising pitch in D.C. (Palm Beach Post-Cox News Service) Florida's independent voters, who favored McCain by a 45-36 percent margin a month ago, now prefer Obama by a 47-37 percent margin.
• Analysis: Independents split over McCain, Obama (CNN)
• Swing Lobby Politics-Obama's Genuflections (CounterPunch)

IDAHO * Will Rex Rammell’s Run Ruin Risch? (New West Network) However, independents are at odds with Rammell’s strong support for closed primaries, an issue which dominated the recent state GOP convention. With that issue, they line up with LaRocco, who supports open primaries and more government transparency, another issue dear to the hearts of independents.

OREGON * Macpherson back to support open primary (Politicker OR)

CALIFORNIA * California is branded among a 'Dirty Dozen' on gerrymandering (LA Times)

NEW YORK * BLOOMBERG'S BLUES, why our billionaire mayor might not want to become our billionaire governor. (NY Press)

REFORM

• EDITORIAL: Changing the system-Is the Electoral College doomed? (Las Vegas Review Journal)
• Commentary: A national popular vote for president (Salisbury Post)
• Electoral College Myths, One More Time (The New Republic/The Plank)
• A well-advised 'whoa' on IRV (Pioneer Press)

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

CAMPAIGN

• Clinton, Obama rallies are like jazz vs. rock (The Oregonian)
• Democrats See Opening In GOP Bastion of Nebraska/War Sentiment Could Play a Role In Number of Races (Wall Street Journal) Independents outnumber Dems and Repubs
• With John on Her Side (Andrew Romano, Newsweek Stumper) Hillary to create Poverty Czar post for John Edwards
• Campaign Notebook: Social Issues Put on Back Burner in Campaign (Bloomberg)
• PA voter sign-ups near record-Officials say historic high could be reached by April 22 primary (Erie Times News)

POLLS

• Presidential Swing States (FL, OH & PA) Poll April 2, 2008 (Quinnipiac University Poll)
• Second poll shows Clinton's Pennsylvania lead shrinking (The Morning Call)
• N.C. poll: Voters put value on trust-McCain surpasses both Democrats in array of ratings (MyrtleBeachOnline.com)
• CUIP seeks independent voters for online presidential poll (Independentvoting.org) Independent voters -- by a wide margin (58% to 37%) -- said in a recent CBS/AP poll that the U.S. should have stayed out of the war in Iraq. CUIP wants to know what you think about this and other important issues of the day.

LOCAL

• RI: Chafee, Laffey speak volumes (The Providence Journal) Chafee’s new book, Against the Tide: How a Compliant Congress Empowered a Reckless President.
• FL: Enviros say climate-change legislation a political plus for Crist (Sarasota Herald Tribune) “The take home message today is that independents have swung clearly in the direction of climate protection,”
• LA: Vote today called key to seat in Congress-Republicans hold sway in 1st District (NOLA.com) after excluding unaffiliated voters from primary
• OR: Voters Switch Affiliations For Primaries (KPTV Portland) Nearly 10,000 Oregon voters have switched their party affiliation in order to vote in May's primary.