Monday, May 14, 2012

2012: Parsing Political Advantage of Gay Marriage Position

  • Gallup: Gay marriage stance could cost Obama among independents (By Michael A. Memoli, LA Times) The results "suggest Obama's gay marriage position is likely to cost him more independent and Democratic votes than he would gain in independent and Republican votes, clearly indicating that his new position is more of a net minus than a net plus for him."
  • Poll: Most Voters Don’t Care About Obama’s Gay-Marriage Evolution (By Dan Amira, New York Magazine) For those who say it would make a difference, it's a mixed bag for Obama: Only 11 percent of independent voters say that Obama's endorsement makes them more likely to vote for him, compared to 23 percent who say it makes them less likely to vote for him. But while he lost some independent votes, Obama may have picked up some previously less-than-enthusiastic Democratic voters who might have stayed home on election day: 23 percent of Democrats say they are now more likely to vote for Obama, compared to 10 percent who say its less likely.
  • Six in 10 Say Obama Same-Sex Marriage View Won't Sway Vote (by Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup) However, those figures also underscore that it is a relatively limited group of voters -- about one in three independents and fewer than one in 10 Republicans or Democrats -- whose votes may change as a result of Obama's new stance on gay marriage.
  • Obama’s support for gay marriage adds new layer of complexity for swing-state voters (By Associated Press, Washington Post) Advocates on both sides of the emotional issue agree Obama’s pronouncement will stoke enthusiasm among core Democrats and Republicans, likely boosting turnout in the November election and fundraising ahead of it. The big unknown is where independent voters — and specifically those Obama struggles to win over, such as middle-class whites — land in the fewer than a dozen states expected to make a difference in the quest for the White House.

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