Today is primary day and 3.5 million Flori

Saturday, February 09, 2008

Live-blogging the MSNBC coverage of the Obama/Clinton fight tonight 2/9/08

6:30pm EST

Watching MSNBC with Tim Russert...

David Brooks from the New York Times has just said that Hillary is campaigning as the working class candidate.

Why is Bill Clinton failing?
That's an interesting question. Answers: Pushing his wife out of the picture not good. Race, not good.

Dan Balz (Washington Post) says Bill's problem is they're seen as a team no matter what [i.e. Billary]...

David Brooks says he's out of touch bec. he's been on a speaking tour....

Roger Simon, of Politico is looking forward to an exciting convention....
Dan says this is an election we haven't seen before....

All agree that McCain is the Repub nominee....


An additional note from the Chicago Sun Times: New factor in Obama-Clinton race: McCain
Dem contenders shift focus, knowing independents may be key to election :
'It's hard to imagine now," said Dan Pfeiffer, a spokesman for Barack Obama's presidential campaign. "But when we first started this thing. ... We never knew that it was all going to come together.".....


6:50pm EST: Ok we're back... Roger says Obama needs to up the ante on the Clinton element, not just words...
Dan says ? (sorry, did not compute.... I have an idea he's straddling the proverbial fence...?)
David says McCain will win independents and will win white men....

My note: David Brooks by far has a better understanding of independent voters than the other columnists. Still, not a strong connection. No surprise....

Live-blogging the coverage of Nebraska's Caucus

6:29 pm EST
Omaha Democrats Jam Caucus Sites, Action 3 News:
Omaha, NE.- Democrats throughout Douglas and Sarpy County crammed into one caucus location after another today, as Nebraska takes center stage in the national fight between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama..... The Western Hills the crowd was overwhelmingly behind Obama, where he won 973 votes to Clinton's 278.

Live-blogging the CNN coverage of Louisiana Primary

Broadcasting from New Orleans, Suzanne Malreaux, with Candy Crowley in Richmond, they are now showing Bill Clinton in Richmond trying to drum up African American support for Clinton (CNN.com Live video]. Sen. Obama is now in Bangor, Maine....

Low Turnout in Louisiana Worries Obama Camp:
By Anne E. Kornblut, The Caucus/New York Times: Reports of low turnout in Louisiana caused a wave of concern in the Obama campaign on an otherwise smooth primary and caucus day in four states on Saturday. Although Sen. Barack Obama is expected to fare well in Louisiana, where about 45 percent of registered Democrats are African American, low turnout could drive down his numbers. The state has 66 delegates for the Democratic nomination.....


High turnouts in Neb., low in La. for Dems:
By Chris Good The Hill
The Nebraska Democratic Party is reporting “incredibly high turnouts” in its presidential caucuses Saturday, while the Louisiana Democratic Party predicted low turnout for its primary Saturday afternoon.

Live-blogging the CNN coverage of Washington Caucus

5:20 pm EST Jessica Yellin is speaking to us from the floor of a large caucus in Spokane (I think). She says there are about twice as many people there as turned out last time. The word is that Obama is leading in sentiment. [CNN seems to be very cagey about this and in fact when Gov. Christine Gregoire was speaking about 15 minutes ago, Jessica said over a live mic, Oh, she's for Obama... and they cut to a speech yesterday by Hillary.... Gov. Gregoire has endorsed Obama.]

5:35: Ok, now Gregoire is speaking about why she's for Obama, he brings out the best in people. Jessica asks if Gregoire will support Hillary if she wins the nomination. Yes, she says. We need to make America great again. It could be close, but Gregoire thinks Obama will win.

Jessica jumps in with a little "fair time" for Clinton.... [Whatever happened to just reporting on what is going on....?]

Here's the Washington DC anchor coming with what an "interesting thing it is for a white woman governor to endorse Obama....

Washington Democratic Caucuses: Unfair to Independents?

Big Turnout Expected at Local Precinct Caucuses (Lewis County, The Chronicle) The presidential precinct caucuses are set to begin today at 1 p.m. in homes, schools, granges and other locations throughout Lewis County and the rest of Washington....

It may be time to revamp the presidential election process (To the Editor, Daily Record) After I had filled out my ballot I was disappointed that I could not simply vote for the best person for the job without swearing allegiance to one party or the other. Even though I would prefer to be considered independent of any party (even the independent party) I sent off my ballot. Several days later I was told that my vote did not matter as the presidential candidate would be decided at the party caucuses.....


The caucuses are going on right now, and you can watch one in Seattle live on CNN


From the Spokesman Review:
Q: What's a caucus, anyway?
A: A caucus is a meeting. In this case, it's a meeting of members of a political party in the state's smallest political subdivision, a precinct. In Spokane and most other counties, precincts vary in size, from a few blocks in the center of a city to large rural tracts.
Q: Do I have to be a registered Democrat or Republican to attend?
A: No, because voters in Washington don't register by party. When you arrive and sign in, you'll be asked to state that on this day, for this particular meeting, you consider yourself a member of that party.
Q: What if I'm an independent? Doesn't that violate my constitutional rights?.....

For a discussion of this issue, see Harry Kresky's article in the Takoma News Tribune.

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

HANKSTER LEDE: The Disaffected Voters Who'll Decide 2008 (By Douglas E. Schoen, Washington Post) AND La. primary a disappointment for independent voters (Shreveport Times)

VIRGINIA: Exclusive ABC 7 and SurveyUSA Poll: Chesapeake Primary (WJLA ABC 7 News)

WASHINGTON: Gregoire endorses Obama (Seattle Post Intelligencer)

POLLS: The Clinton Lead: Less Than Four Percentage Points (Forbes)

Friday, February 08, 2008

Obama: The Netroots (and Harlem) aren't so independent...

Here's a link to The New Republic's "Net Loss/Why liberal bloggers don't love Obama" by Bradford Plumer..... worth a read:

What the left/liberal bloggers are saying is they can't REALLY trust Obama to get us out of Iraq (Hillary is given a pass on this issue), and they're not sure where he stands on government surveillence (Wouldn't that be #2 on the Dem party platform after getting out of Iraq?? But I digress.....) Apparently Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas grumbled that "the usual D.C. consulting crowd" was advising Obama to run a "safe race."

Brad Plumer goes on to say that "Of course, irking the major bloggers won't sink Obama's campaign. And he still has ample support both from midsized blogs and many blog readers - he consistently does well in Daily Kos and MoveOn straw polls."

Though I agree that the Big Blogs aren't the end of the story and as in all establishment venues, it's the Daily Kos and MDD, Open Left, etc. that have the standing, there does appear to be the same establishment/grassroots split in the blogosphere as we have everywhere else.

I'm an independent and as such in New York, I have no vote in the primaries that are taking place. I don't know that I would endorse Barack Obama unless he asked me to (Which he has not. And I didn't receive The Memo....) and unless he had some pretty compelling arguments.

One argument might be that he recognizes independents by name (Obama has yet to acknowledge endorsements of significant independent leaders in California like independentvoice.org's Jim Mangia, or South Carolina's Independence Party's Wayne Griffin. In Missouri, independents like Barbara Woodruff put Obama over the top and raised the possibility that he might win the election based on independent voters. )

And he should talk concretely about our issues (Like open primaries, initiative and referendum, and other political reforms) when he claims our support.

That said, I don't like the politics of Daily Kos and Markos Moulitsas. Kos wants to be a vote broker for a supposed liberal voting bloc. Kos is living proof that the Amercian left is a calcified comodity of the Democratic Party that can be consumed like this morning's latte. (NOTE to Markos: The Liberal Movement has expired, please check your credentials at the door.)

The 2008 difference is that there's a real independent movement underway... A movement that Barack Obama and David Axelrod and other Dem strategists should pay very close attention to.

The Netroots are not alone. Compare the black Dem establishment. As Lenora Fulani put it yesterday: {A]ll of New York's black members of Congress backed Hillary and helped produce her highest percentage of the black vote anywhere in the country - 37 percent. In Harlem, the seat of the black establishment, represented by Congressman Charles Rangel, Hillary beat Obama by 7½ points. Rev. Al Sharpton remained neutral, managing to avoid getting caught in the crossfire between the insurgent and establishment camps.

We are in a fight in this country between the establishment (the elites) and the grassroots (everybody else). There's nothing in the blogosphere or in technology, in Harlem, or in Obama's campaign, that is inherently independent or forward-looking. That's up to us the people. The ability of the Obama campaign to connect with the independent movement will depend on the Obama campaign's ability to connect with independent voters, not their ability to read political polls.

I'm not surprised that Kos doesn't care about this fight and settles for "Dems Uber Alles". And don't you be surprised either when Kos and Charlie Rangel start saying we have to elect Hillary in order to beat Bush -- even if Bush is not running. Hey, you gotta have something to be against to win an election, right? Right. Except it's 2008. And we ain't yesterday's fools. -NH

P.S. -- Sen. Obama, if you want us, come get us. Don't be distant!

Obama Memo: Independents will trump Maverick in November

Marc Ambinder on The Atlantic, among a few others at this moment, brings us The Memo from Barack Obama below:

TO: Interested Parties
FR: Obama Communications
RE: The Candidate Who Can Win: Barack Obama is beating Hillary Clinton with Independent voters and can beat John McCain in November
DA: February 8, 2007
On the day that John McCain became the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party, a Time poll confirmed what voters and polls have consistently demonstrated in the last few weeks – Barack Obama is the candidate best suited to win Independents, play well in Red States, and beat John McCain in November..... (read more)


Apparently the Clinton campaign thought this was a significant enough "hit" to hold a conference call. This from the Wall Street Journal Wire: On a conference call today, senior Hillary Clinton advisers stressed that the New York senator and former first lady has been vetted more than Obama and has a proven track record of standing up to Republican attacks.....

TPM Election Central says: [Obama says his] appeal to independents far outpaces [Hillary's] and that she would unite Republicans and conservatives fractured by McCain's expected victory. But in a twist, the memo seeks to bolster the point by quoting Republicans saying it....

New York Newsday's Spin Cycle calls into question the tactics of the Hillary response: Why would the Clinton campaign want to put a fight with a previously unknown and already apologetic MSNBC correspondent named David Shuster in the headlines today? Maybe because it's better than having this in the headlines, from Time.....


We'll see how this plays out. It is certainly noteworthy that Obama won a helluva lot of votes from independents on Super Tuesday [read Lenora Fulani's "Obama's Wave and the New York Role Reversal" about Barack Obama's independent vote, black vote and black independent vote...] And of course this was the moment that Romney dropped out, making it more clear that John McCain, the Maverick, will surely be the nominee of the Repubs.

To be sure, independents have given a lot to the Obama campaign, and probably wisely. Obama has projected a message that resonates with independent voters. This election is not about a change in party in Washington DC, and any meaningful change in the country will come from the bottom up. If we are to take this message as ultimately serious and on point, then we will have to consider our own responsibility as ordinary people in leading the country forward.

Whatever the outcome of this election, independents will continue to organize at the grassroots. It's the people, not the parties or the candidates -- as good as they may be, that need to be heard. -NH

Utah, Missouri, New York and the Obama Edge

Utah Democrats were split evenly between their presidential candidates, giving independents the chance to hand a primary victory to Sen. Barack Obama. Exit polls conducted for major news outlets show that independents had a major influence in Utah's primary. In the end, Obama claimed 57 percent of the vote, while Sen. Hillary Clinton received 39 percent. The detailed results also included some shockers, such as women favoring Obama over Clinton. The victory gave Obama 14 and Clinton nine of the available 23 delegates...... (Salt Lake Tribune)

Democratic Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton will end up evenly splitting the delegates from Missouri's presidential primary, even though Obama narrowly defeated Clinton in the statewide vote.... In complete but unofficial results, Obama received 49 percent of the Democratic vote -- 405,284 compared with 395,287 for Clinton.... (Marshall Democrat-News)


Super Tuesday may not have decided the Democratic or Republican presidential nominations. But it did redraw the map of black politics in some significant ways...... Exit polling picked up this trend for the first time on Super Tuesday. And here are what some of the numbers show. In Massachusetts 33 percent of black voters who cast ballots in the Democratic primary self-identified as independents. In Missouri it was 18 percent. (Obama's Wave and the New York Role Reversal, by Lenora Fulani, The Daily Voice)

TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

Every day, The Hankster runs at least one post called "TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS", a comprehensive aggregated source for news articles from around the country for independent voters, about independent voters.

HANKSTER LEDE: (CNN) Virginia, Texas and Ohio, independent voters are eligible to vote in upcoming Democratic contests.

ARIZONA: State primaries likely to stay closed/Proposals to open polls to independents on back burner (The Arizona Republic) AND Super Tuesday: More than half of Yavapai voters exercised right (By Joanna Dodder Nellans, The Daily Courier) independents demand ballots, Gov. calls for open primaries

CALIFORNIA: Independent voters get left out (Pasadena Star News) AND Independent voters play pivotal role (Dan Walters, Mercury News)

MISSOURI: Missouri vote signals complex national mood (By Tim Jones CHICAGO TRIBUNE)

OBAMA/CLINTON-GENDER/RACE: Democrats' next concern: super delegates (NY Newsday) AND Patterns of Distinction (By Andrew Kohut, NY Times) AND A Party Divided? (By Matt Bai, The Caucus/NY Times) AND Despite Loss, Obama Scores Some Wins in New York (BY GRACE RAUH - NY Sun)

BIPARTISANSHIP: Why Bipartisanship Is A False Hope (Derek Shearer, Huffington Post)

Nancy Hanks, a 30-year independent grassroots activist based in New York City, has been building The Hankster since April 2006. The Hankster is America's leading non-partisan, non-centrist independent blog.

Thursday, February 07, 2008




TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS

Every day, The Hankster runs at least one post called "TODAY'S NEWS HEADLINES for INDEPENDENT VOTERS", a comprehensive aggregated source for news articles from around the country for independent voters, about independent voters.

  • HANKSTER LEDE: The Death Of Late 20th Century Politics? Please, Say It's So, Says CBS' Dick Meyer (CBS Commentary)
  • CALIFORNIA: Los Angeles County hit by ballot glitch, 94000 independent ballots thrown out in LA County (Daily Breeze)
  • KANSAS: Kansas Democrats solidly back Obama (The Wichita Eagle) Democratic Party rules allowed Republican and independent voters to participate by reregistering as Democrats at the door.
  • COLORADO: Turnout complicates caucuses (THE PUEBLO CHIEFTAIN)
  • ARIZONA: Casting ballot shouldn't be a bad experience (Tucson, Arizona Star) Independents were given provisional ballots - they won't count.... AND Governor backs vote for Arizona independents (East Valley Tribune) ..... AND Change of heart on independents is welcome one (Yuma Sun)
  • NEW JERSEY: Democrats' ranks swell for a day with independent voters (NorthJersey.com)
  • MISSOURI: Razor-Thin Margins in Missouri Reflect Nationwide Split (NY Times) One-third Missouri voters independent, went overwhelmingly for Obama
Nancy Hanks, a 30-year independent grassroots activist based in New York City, has been building The Hankster since April 2006. The Hankster is America's leading non-partisan, non-centrist independent blog.

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Open primary in California; Closed primary in New York

Here's a video from Courage Campaign that was used to instruct California independents ("decline to state") how to vote in the Dem primary yesterday. It really captures the voting experience for any voter who isn't towing the party line!!!

The video comes from a Crooks and Liars post about the possible disenfranchisement of independent voters in California....


New York excludes independents from primary voting. Closed primaries became an issue in this election because independents are critical to who wins. Here's a post from New York independent voter Shane Bertou .... "there seems to be something inherently flawed about a system that marginalizes moderate and independent voters during the process of selecting a candidate..."

Super Tuesday in Harlem: Insurgent Inroads

In the end, Mr. Obama appeared to have carried the city’s African-American vote, winning in three of the four majority-black Congressional districts, but losing in Harlem – the bastion of the old political guard. (Clinton Wins Here But Power Revolt Splits New York As Senator Takes State, Obama's Insurgents Challenge the Harlem Lions, Politicker)

Gotham Gazette has percentages for Clinton/Obama in New York City Congressional Districts, and Elizabeth Benjamin has the vote totals on The Daily Politics. Obama won 3 CDs -- the 10th and 11th in Brooklyn, and the 6th in Queens, and came within 8 points of winning in Charlie Rangel's district in Harlem.

The view from the Chicago Tribune: Like Rangel, most of Harlem's leadership backed Clinton, the New York senator who led the polls for months. But after Obama won over white and black voters in Iowa and South Carolina, the Illinois senator surged in New York polls....

An interesting article from the London Free Press in Canada: AmNews owner Percy Sutton, Congressman Charles Rangel and the dwindling Harlem Clubhouse Democratic power brokers represented the establishment side of the race that stirred up Harlem on this wet, gray Super Tuesday.....


In New York, independents cannot vote in the party primaries.

California's Decline to State Voters State Support for Obama

Obama held a 23-point advantage with "decline to state" voters, but it could not overcome her 21-point edge with Democrats, according to exit polls.... (How Clinton won California, San Francisco Chronicle)

For full results of Super Tuesday's voting, see US News & World Report

For Maureen Dowd's view of Super Tuesday, see Darkness and Light -- she says Obama will have to "slay the dragon" of the Clinton machine if he wants to be president...

What happened to independent voters in California and Massachusetts?

In California, there were "Few election glitches, except for independents". The Brad Blog points out that's a pretty big exception -- 3 million voters worth..... And watch the video of a voter trying to vote for Ron Paul....


MASSACHUSETTS: Major exit polls on Super Tuesday said that Obama continued to be overwhelmingly supported by young voters, African-Americans and independent/Republican voters. The trends apparently did not apply to Massachusetts, where, according to NBC, the Democratic presidential hopeful gained an equal share of ballots among voters between 18 to 44 years, and did very poorly among independents, another group of voters he is popular with, gaining less than his rival, 42 to 54 percent. He also received 31 percent support among conservative voters, while Clinton got 64 percent. ... (AHN)

Super Tuesday split; what's next in primaries

Super Tuesday: In the end, on Tuesday, Clinton and Obama both gained delegates and scored important wins that will propel the Democratic primary season at least another few weeks...... In the next two weeks, Washington state, Kansas, Maryland, Virginia, Louisiana, Wisconsin and the District of Columbia, and other smaller states, will make their picks. And then, on March 4, the larger states of Texas and Ohio will weigh in. (San Jose Mercury News)

Kansas Caucus: Democratic Party rules allowed Republican and independent voters to participate by reregistering as Democrats at the door. (Kansas.com)

Independents stick with Obama, McCain

Voters along the campaign trail constantly tell me they want to change the ways of Washington and pick a president who can alter the direction of the country. So why is 71-year-old veteran Senator John McCain headed toward the Republican nomination? And why is Senator Hillary Clinton, who carries heavy baggage from the partisan wars of the ‘90s, taking the lead for the Democratic nomination? (The Swamp - Front Row: Voters seek change but experience wins, by William E. Gibson)


Obama, meanwhile, continued his extraordinary performance among voters concerned about the war in Iraq and those thirsting for change. His continued strength among self-described independent voters fueled his argument that he would be the better general election candidate. (Democrats Choose Different Paths Toward Nomination, Washington Post)


Independent voters nudged Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama to narrow statewide victories in the important presidential testing ground of Missouri. But McCain reaped a much richer reward. ( McCain, Obama win in close Missouri primaries, digitalBURG)